Big-2 now Big-4 for Women's NCAA XC Title

Current LACCTIC simulation taking out non team scorers. This does not have Tyynismaa running. NAU 71% likelihood of winning.

1
Northern Arizona
(1 - 2)
(80 - 118)
71%
2
NC State
(1 - 2)
(95 - 142)
27%
3
Florida
(2 - 4)
(129 - 190)
3%
4
BYU
(3 - 5)
(171 - 237)
0%
5
Oklahoma State
(4 - 6)
(194 - 268)
0%
6
Stanford
(5 - 8)
(220 - 303)
0%

Definitely a blow to NCst that Tyynismaa is out. I don't know how Henes runs her at nationals

Pre-NCAAs coaches' poll finally got it right:

ustfccca.org

2023 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll – Week 6

USTFCCCA Communications

2023 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll – Week 6

Open link

Notes: all first place votes went to NAU . . . so coaches are warming up to the possibility NAU is an all-time great team . . . NAU, NC State & BYU have so much quality depth, can't see any way outside of mass illness they fall off the podium . . . while OK State . . . despite a terrific top-3 . . . could be challenged if one or more of their top-5 runners has a bad race.

Too bad for Stanford, Georgetown, etc . . . good teams which would be competing for a podium spot in any other year . . . but . . . probably due to the transfer portal plus great coaching . . . we've never seen this many powerhouse women's teams in the same season . . .

agree, this NC St team might be better than last year, and score less, but still lose by 10-15 points. I think NAU and NC St might be close thru 4 runners if NC St runs well, but NAU seems to have big edge at 5 (and several options there). I would not be shocked if Georgetown makes podium. Agree if BYU runs well they can be 3 or 4 but I dont see 2 unless NC St falters. OSU has that good top 3, but 4/5 might be a little shaky. Or maybe Lagat comes off the bench.... FL podium chances seem to be slipping imho.

Might be a silly question but I’m confused: how is Florida ranked above Tennessee if they lost to them at regionals?

Well mazza-downie was rested

I haven’t been able to find anything stating why she has run only one race. Was any reason provided in the SEC Champs broadcast? All I saw from it was a short clip in which Carrie T. said she might not run that day (she did).

Based on their runner rankings TSR would have NAU win with 90-105 points well clear of NC St with about 150 and BYU about 200. NAU seems about right to me with 4/11/14/22/46. I do think they have NC St 4/5 too low at about 60 each, and have BYU with 4 runners in mid to upper 30s also looks like a little low - or assumes not any one has the good day that at least one have shown every race. They also show both OSU and FL with only 3 in top roughly 80 which then would place them well back of BYU. (I did not try to take out non team scorers though)

Expect NAU, NC State and OK State to have 2 runners in before BYU's #1 . . . while OK State may very well have its 3rd runner in before BYU's #1 . . .

however . . .

then comes the BYU avalanche . . . all 7 runners within 40 seconds of each other . . . with a top-5 spread of 30 seconds . . . based upon Big-12 results where the team ran full strength and was pushed to the limit by OK State . . .

By comparison, at 2022 NCAAs . . . NC State's 1-7 spread was 78 secs . . . it's top-5 spread was 65 secs . . . eliminating Tuohy & Chmiel, its 3-7 spread was 48 secs.

And NAU can match that quality depth . . . while being better at #1 & #2.

Which is why my $$ in on NAU to win, BYU to place, NC State to show, and OK State holding on to that 4th podium spot.

Note: if Tuohy, Chmiel, Tyynismaa & Bush can replicate their 1-3-9-15 places from last year, then they would be right there . . . probably the favorite . . . to win it all . . . however, have doubts about the latter 2 repeating those performances on Saturday . . . so have NC State pegged for bronze . . .

Good call. I'm most interested in the aspect of this race that there will be a lead group of 2 to 5 runners and then a big 2nd group. The 2nd group will have 2-5 from nau, NC st, osu and byu. They will all be able to see each other like a little quad meet. Key runners like Smee, Henteman?, Bush & Tyynismaa, and Hutchins will all know exactly how they are doing.

NAU clearly the favorite, but I think Bush & Tyynismaa will run 3 AND 4 with Stephens 5th and do just barely enough to get win #3.

The lead will be Valby, Tuohy, the Bama ladies, and some surprise, let's say Stearns. By 5k it will only be Valby and Tuohy, and Tuohy will pull away decisively in last k. Win in 18:49. Chmiel will be mostly with the big pack, but will close hard to get 4th or 5th.

Respect these guys' dedication to knowing every name on every team in the country . . .

however . . .

when they continue to talk nonsense about FL or Georgetown or Notre Dame or whomever contending for the women's podium . . . only mentioning OK State in passing . . . that reflects on their lack of due diligence to dive into past results . . . know who ran and who was held out . . . compare time spreads between #1 to #7 runners . . . then make informed predictions . . . well . . . let's just say I'll pass on a TSR subscription . . .

agree on the dedication and knowledge of details. These guys are also very plugged into the portal....but sometimes they see the small trees and imho miss the forest.

I agree OSU should be a fovorite for podium an deserves more than an afterthought. I think FL has slipped as they said the back end has not been their (and frankly their 2/3 have not been as strong as once thought either). Georgetown has been running nice though even with Donahaue as their 5th. Bottom line if all bring their A games then I say 1) NAU 2) NC St 3) BYU 4) OSU 5) Georgetown. If NAU slips and NC St brings A+ maybe (maybe) they flip. If NC St slips and BYU brings A+ maybe they flip.

BTW to whoever said I was way off on BYU early in the season here is your chance.....but I had not seen anything early that impressed but certainly as the season went on they have.

I saw Em Sisson's post on Instagram today about Providence winning a title in 2013 with 141 points. They wouldn't even make podium this year.

Here are the LAACTIC ranks of the potential 3rd place women’s teams:

…………FL……GTWN…..BYU……OSU
(1) ….14:56….15:37……15:41…..15:46
(2) ….15:37….15:52…..15:50…..15:47
(3) ….15:40…16:06…..15:54…..15:52
(4) ….16:01….16:14……15:56….15:53
(5) ….16:04….16:15……16:06….16:02

If Florida actually gets all of their five to run well, then they very well could pull 3rd.

Obviously, I meant those are the LAACTIC rankings of the top five runners of those teams.

This is interesting #5 on Florida seems to be basking in the Valby halo. 1-4 on BYU and 1-3 on OSU have the potential to be much quicker.

I also wouldn't be shocked if one of the Pac12 teams gets their act together and runs well. None of them have much depth, but they all have 5 athletes who can surprise. That's Stan, Wash, Oregon and CU.

Mazza-Downie of FL has not run to that 15:37 level in her only outing. Hentemann of OSU (15:52) has not run this season and Lagat of OSU (16:02) has not run in a month. The BYU 5 all have had highs and lows which show in their ranges but if they all hit a high.....
1 Carmen Alder 15:41 (15:32 - 15:51)
2 Aubrey Frentheway 15:50 (15:41 - 16:00)
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry 15:54 (15:45 - 16:04)
4 Jenna Hutchins 15:56 (15:47 - 16:06)
5 Riley Chamberlain 16:06 (15:57 - 16:16)

What do you mean by that phrase? There is probably a team aspect, where they encourage each other to run faster, etc.

But the bottom line, Wilson, their 5th, may have ran the best cross country race of her life, so far, at Regionals.