Valby and everyone else. She will grind it out in the mud and drop everyone.
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Bosley will take it in front of home crowd.
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bumblebee wrote:
rbtrackfan wrote:
I thought it odd that both TSR and Flotrack thought NC St W are a slam dunk winner on Friday. Are many (and I am in that group) overestimating NAU W?
NC State having two consistent front runners vs. NAU having one means there's a lot of pressure on the group of Larkin, Reiss, Smee, Grice (whichever of them is racing) to stay as close to Stearns as possible. For instance Reiss and Larkin were 12 and 15 seconds back of Stearns at UVA and that was only 7/8 positions. In a larger field like Nuttycombe 15 seconds could be 20+ spots. If both Tuohy and Chmiel finish top 6 ish for NC State and only Stearns does for NAU then they'll need their backend to really finish strong. Especially if either Leah Stephens performs well again or Sam Bush is back to better form.
Right now I would say Tuohy> Stearns, Chmiel>Reiss/Larkin but Reiss/Larkin>Stephens, Moore/Smee/Stutzman> Hartman/Bush. But I guess we shall see Friday. I certainly do not see NC St as a slam dunk winner. By year end if Tyynismaa/Bush are there with Reiss/Larkin well that would be a different story.
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My guess for top 10 - Tuohy, Valby, Chmiel, Stearns, Churchill, Mitchell, Mazza-Downie, Bunnage, Markezich, Karinaskaite
Florida could debut as a big powerhouse if the New Mexico and Alabama recruits all deliver. Valby may be super motivated to help her team make a splash.
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Toot the horn wrote:
Valby and everyone else. She will grind it out in the mud and drop everyone.
Valby will be up there but will not drop everyone. I just don't see it.
Tuohy is a power runner and the course and conditions will be ideal for her. If Tuohy has an off day Valby may get the W but I just don't see it. Tuohy has run in the slop pretty much since she started running. Chmiel & Markezich can also run in the slop.
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rbtrackfan wrote:
bumblebee wrote:
NC State having two consistent front runners vs. NAU having one means there's a lot of pressure on the group of Larkin, Reiss, Smee, Grice (whichever of them is racing) to stay as close to Stearns as possible. For instance Reiss and Larkin were 12 and 15 seconds back of Stearns at UVA and that was only 7/8 positions. In a larger field like Nuttycombe 15 seconds could be 20+ spots. If both Tuohy and Chmiel finish top 6 ish for NC State and only Stearns does for NAU then they'll need their backend to really finish strong. Especially if either Leah Stephens performs well again or Sam Bush is back to better form.
Right now I would say Tuohy> Stearns, Chmiel>Reiss/Larkin but Reiss/Larkin>Stephens, Moore/Smee/Stutzman> Hartman/Bush. But I guess we shall see Friday. I certainly do not see NC St as a slam dunk winner. By year end if Tyynismaa/Bush are there with Reiss/Larkin well that would be a different story.
certainly possible but your tiers seem more like a best case scenario to me. I know Stearns looked great in her first race but has she ever beaten Chmiel? I know Chmiel beat her in XC and Indoors last year every race. You dont seem to be considering that both Tuohy & Chmiel could be > Stearns. NC state being at 4 or 5 points through 2 runners where NAU is at 5 through 1 is a significant advantage.
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Great article. It says that Tuohy had a rough time last spring in part because they upped her mileage to the 70's for the first time. Also, it does not sound like a done deal that she will run tomorrow and might open up at ACC's instead.
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Blank231 wrote:
Posted this in another thread but forecast right now is possible heavy rain, cold...
Perfect cross country weather!
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Perfect conditions to preview what may be nationals in Virginia…
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trackfandom wrote:
Great article. It says that Tuohy had a rough time last spring in part because they upped her mileage to the 70's for the first time. Also, it does not sound like a done deal that she will run tomorrow and might open up at ACC's instead.
Yeah, I just read it.
If Henes is going to limit her efforts more this season I would actually rather see Tuohy run Nuttycombe, skip the ACC meet or regional meet, and then run NCAA. NC State should be able to win the ACC meet and also qualify to the NCAA meet without Tuohy and skipping either the ACC or regional would space out her efforts.
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bumblebee wrote:
rbtrackfan wrote:
I thought it odd that both TSR and Flotrack thought NC St W are a slam dunk winner on Friday. Are many (and I am in that group) overestimating NAU W?
NC State having two consistent front runners vs. NAU having one means there's a lot of pressure on the group of Larkin, Reiss, Smee, Grice(whichever of them is racing) to stay as close to Stearns as possible. For instance Reiss and Larkin were 12 and 15 seconds back of Stearns at UVA and that was only 7/8 positions. In a larger field like Nuttycombe 15 seconds could be 20+ spots. If both Tuohy and Chmiel finish top 6 ish for NC State and only Stearns does for NAU then they'll need their backend to really finish strong. Especially if either Leah Stephens performs well again or Sam Bush is back to better form.
All the above I believe are racing. As well as Ali Upshaw. No Stutzman listed - I expect Smith knows he doesn't need to use her eligibility up this year.
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rbtrackfan wrote:
I thought it odd that both TSR and Flotrack thought NC St W are a slam dunk winner on Friday. Are many (and I am in that group) overestimating NAU W?
Nc state not a lock. NAU, fl, Stanford, cu and even Notre Dame in the mix. I'm eager to see who steps up for these challengers. None are perfect, but all have 5 runners now.
For pack most interesting is still 4-7. As always we will learn a ton this week. Only conference and regionals left.
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Suzyfavorme wrote:
Perfect conditions to preview what may be nationals in Virginia…
Schedule has been flipped, putting A races first.
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Nate Lantz leads UP to a 15 point win
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trackfandom wrote:
Great article. It says that Tuohy had a rough time last spring in part because they upped her mileage to the 70's for the first time. Also, it does not sound like a done deal that she will run tomorrow and might open up at ACC's instead.
70's is not that high compared to the pros, maybe high for college? I wonder what she was running before that. This cuts against the story that she was a high mileage runner. I think the BTC women do like 85-90, Monson 90-95.
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bumblebee wrote:
rbtrackfan wrote:
Right now I would say Tuohy> Stearns, Chmiel>Reiss/Larkin but Reiss/Larkin>Stephens, Moore/Smee/Stutzman> Hartman/Bush. But I guess we shall see Friday. I certainly do not see NC St as a slam dunk winner. By year end if Tyynismaa/Bush are there with Reiss/Larkin well that would be a different story.
certainly possible but your tiers seem more like a best case scenario to me. I know Stearns looked great in her first race but has she ever beaten Chmiel? I know Chmiel beat her in XC and Indoors last year every race. You dont seem to be considering that both Tuohy & Chmiel could be > Stearns. NC state being at 4 or 5 points through 2 runners where NAU is at 5 through 1 is a significant advantage.
I did not mean to imply Stearns would beat Chmiel. I was trying to match up #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2, etc. But yes I would expect Tuohy/Chmiel to put NC St well ahead of NAU through 2 runners - the question is how much do they give back at 3/4 (if anything) and especially at 5. Friday the give back could be large.
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rbtrackfan wrote:
bumblebee wrote:
certainly possible but your tiers seem more like a best case scenario to me. I know Stearns looked great in her first race but has she ever beaten Chmiel? I know Chmiel beat her in XC and Indoors last year every race. You dont seem to be considering that both Tuohy & Chmiel could be > Stearns. NC state being at 4 or 5 points through 2 runners where NAU is at 5 through 1 is a significant advantage.
I did not mean to imply Stearns would beat Chmiel. I was trying to match up #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2, etc. But yes I would expect Tuohy/Chmiel to put NC St well ahead of NAU through 2 runners - the question is how much do they give back at 3/4 (if anything) and especially at 5. Friday the give back could be large.
Stearns hasn't beaten Chmiel but she has been right on her heels last xc season in every match up and nothing this year has indicated she's faltering. Friday will be interesting but my $$ is on the NAU women showing out.
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Upper mileage plus lack season fatigue after running cross country and indoor at a very high level. She clearly peaked during indoor last year.
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some interesting predictions by TSR. Stephens beating Larkin and Bunnage? In general it looks to me like they are downplaying the Sep VA meet result.
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