Will Ingebrigtsen win the 1500? Official 2023 Worlds Men's 1500 Discussion Thread

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

The leading contenders likely to be in the final should get together (minus Jakob) and decide that what is best for the group is to let Jakob lead from the gun. While a faster pace helps Jakob, he is unlikely to lay down 55s from the front. So if he's leading, he might run a more modest pace allowing one of the others to outkick him at the tape.

John Nash explains:

Video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6eK0yiw9t0

But they just won't. Can we really imagine Katir, Kerr, Nuguse, Tim C huddling up and coming to that conclusion? Because even if they did the next topic is "well who is running behind him in what order" - it would be like the Keystone Cops. Actually I don't think this particular tactic would help at all anyway - so you let Jakob lead out in a smooth but "slow" 57 - all that helps him do is run even faster in laps 2 and 3 to 1200m and then you really have no chance because his threshold is so much better and you will at some point be crossing yours while he is still floating along.

I think once the race gets really going (after the first lap) if you haven't wounded him (figuratively not literally) then it's too late. I would even like to see one guy say "f-ck this he's not going to have an easy ride this first lap" and not allow him to start so casually then just easily make his way to the front as they come up the home straight. Hold your ground, make him run wide from 300-400 - if he takes an elbow (Steve Ovett style - legal of course in pro track and field ;) - then so be it. At least get him thinking.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

The leading contenders likely to be in the final should get together (minus Jakob) and decide that what is best for the group is to let Jakob lead from the gun. While a faster pace helps Jakob, he is unlikely to lay down 55s from the front. So if he's leading, he might run a more modest pace allowing one of the others to outkick him at the tape.

John Nash explains:

Video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6eK0yiw9t0

But they just won't. Can we really imagine Katir, Kerr, Nuguse, Tim C huddling up and coming to that conclusion? Because even if they did the next topic is "well who is running behind him in what order" - it would be like the Keystone Cops. Actually I don't think this particular tactic would help at all anyway - so you let Jakob lead out in a smooth but "slow" 57 - all that helps him do is run even faster in laps 2 and 3 to 1200m and then you really have no chance because his threshold is so much better and you will at some point be crossing yours while he is still floating along.

I think once the race gets really going (after the first lap) if you haven't wounded him (figuratively not literally) then it's too late. I would even like to see one guy say "f-ck this he's not going to have an easy ride this first lap" and not allow him to start so casually then just easily make his way to the front as they come up the home straight. Hold your ground, make him run wide from 300-400 - if he takes an elbow (Steve Ovett style - legal of course in pro track and field ;) - then so be it. At least get him thinking.

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

But they just won't. Can we really imagine Katir, Kerr, Nuguse, Tim C huddling up and coming to that conclusion? Because even if they did the next topic is "well who is running behind him in what order" - it would be like the Keystone Cops. Actually I don't think this particular tactic would help at all anyway - so you let Jakob lead out in a smooth but "slow" 57 - all that helps him do is run even faster in laps 2 and 3 to 1200m and then you really have no chance because his threshold is so much better and you will at some point be crossing yours while he is still floating along.

I think once the race gets really going (after the first lap) if you haven't wounded him (figuratively not literally) then it's too late. I would even like to see one guy say "f-ck this he's not going to have an easy ride this first lap" and not allow him to start so casually then just easily make his way to the front as they come up the home straight. Hold your ground, make him run wide from 300-400 - if he takes an elbow (Steve Ovett style - legal of course in pro track and field ;) - then so be it. At least get him thinking.

Of course the practicalities of this approach are laughable, just like a bunch of guys agreeing to not hit on the hot girl. But *in theory* it would maximize the chance of a non-Jakob winner. Jakob highly likely to win no matter the tactics.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Another poster alluded to this as well but the "Kenyan team tactics" are, just like Portland Oregon, the dream of the 90's.

I also can't remember a single race in the last 10-15 years where either the Kenyans or the Ethiopians worked together to thwart a favorite (Farah was the best example). I remember talking to an agent about this a few years ago and we had the same hypothesis - when athlete management groups really came to the forefront of the sport (as in you absolutely needed to be with a Kim McDonald, Jos Hermens etc) in the late 90's, patriotic allegiance etc started to slip away too. Athletes listened more to their agents than their national team coaches (not that they need to listen to anyone) because the agent hold the purse strings and they don't want or need athletes sacrificing themselves for the good of someone else. Especially the Kenyans who were and are extremely diverse in their management groups vs say the best Moroccan MD runners who use to all be with El G's agent and hence had no problem going out and pacing for him (like in 99 and 00 but then even that stopped).

In the past with more tactical championship 1500m races I would always say, "it doesn't matter how slow it is, everyone backs their kick" (even the guys who would get blown out of the water in the last 200) - but the way the event has evolved to be run now it doesn't really matter. Doha was 1.51.6 at 800, Tokyo 1.51.7 and Eugene 1.51.9 - you don't have to worry about backing your kick at that pace because at best you might have a 20m window at best to muster up any sort of acceleration if you get lucky and the pace eases ever so slightly (Like Jake last year) - which is why the strongest guy is almost certainly going to win. And nobody right now is stronger than, well we know who...

Wise Old Man wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

But they just won't. Can we really imagine Katir, Kerr, Nuguse, Tim C huddling up and coming to that conclusion? Because even if they did the next topic is "well who is running behind him in what order" - it would be like the Keystone Cops. Actually I don't think this particular tactic would help at all anyway - so you let Jakob lead out in a smooth but "slow" 57 - all that helps him do is run even faster in laps 2 and 3 to 1200m and then you really have no chance because his threshold is so much better and you will at some point be crossing yours while he is still floating along.

I think once the race gets really going (after the first lap) if you haven't wounded him (figuratively not literally) then it's too late. I would even like to see one guy say "f-ck this he's not going to have an easy ride this first lap" and not allow him to start so casually then just easily make his way to the front as they come up the home straight. Hold your ground, make him run wide from 300-400 - if he takes an elbow (Steve Ovett style - legal of course in pro track and field ;) - then so be it. At least get him thinking.

All of these guys want to medal, something if not gold. Holding Jakob off and forcing Jakob to cross his threshold on the first lap means they have committed race suicide. Jakob is going to move up after the first turn and run right at his line in the front the rest of the way. The rest of them simply can’t handle it and by the last lap he’s going to pull away and win it pretty handily. They are all going to hold it together just enough to fight for a non gold medal and that means letting Jakob go. I see it clear as day.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Well doesn't that support what I am saying which is basically that this will never happen and it's why I just can't imagine him not winning (especially without the best 800/1500 guy alive right now in Jake W not being there?) Dude go read my first post on this.

The above is all hypotheticals - he's in the favorite category of not "how he's going to win" but "crazy things things that have to happen for him not to". I also wrote earlier I think the only way he loses is if he really has an awful day (health wise) because even if he is complacent in that 3rd lap like he was in Eugene, there is nobody there to take advantage of it this time.

As for making life difficult for him in the opening lap? I don't think that would necessarily mean "race suicide". I'm not suggesting anyone run a 52 and hope he follows. But if his goal is to slowly move through the field up the home straight at 56.0 pace are you telling me that not one of those guys could sense that coming and force him to run just that little bit faster and further in order to do so. You aren't looking for the knockout punch then but hoping that a little jab might open a cut that helps later in the "fight".

Either way I agree with you that essentially everyone else is just hoping for a podium because I don't see it happening anyway - it just hypothesizing.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Another poster alluded to this as well but the "Kenyan team tactics" are, just like Portland Oregon, the dream of the 90's.

I also can't remember a single race in the last 10-15 years where either the Kenyans or the Ethiopians worked together to thwart a favorite (Farah was the best example). I remember talking to an agent about this a few years ago and we had the same hypothesis - when athlete management groups really came to the forefront of the sport (as in you absolutely needed to be with a Kim McDonald, Jos Hermens etc) in the late 90's, patriotic allegiance etc started to slip away too. Athletes listened more to their agents than their national team coaches (not that they need to listen to anyone) because the agent hold the purse strings and they don't want or need athletes sacrificing themselves for the good of someone else. Especially the Kenyans who were and are extremely diverse in their management groups vs say the best Moroccan MD runners who use to all be with El G's agent and hence had no problem going out and pacing for him (like in 99 and 00 but then even that stopped).

In the past with more tactical championship 1500m races I would always say, "it doesn't matter how slow it is, everyone backs their kick" (even the guys who would get blown out of the water in the last 200) - but the way the event has evolved to be run now it doesn't really matter. Doha was 1.51.6 at 800, Tokyo 1.51.7 and Eugene 1.51.9 - you don't have to worry about backing your kick at that pace because at best you might have a 20m window at best to muster up any sort of acceleration if you get lucky and the pace eases ever so slightly (Like Jake last year) - which is why the strongest guy is almost certainly going to win. And nobody right now is stronger than, well we know who...

Would you say maybe the Ethiopians in the 2017 Worlds 5000? Anyhow bit of a unique case in Kenya this year. Kipsang and Reynold same agency (Golazo). Reynold saying on the record he has Tim as his mentor and let him win at Kenyan Trials/would do the same at Worlds. So there’s some closeness on this team. Not sure if it plays out with much coordination but there are more seeds of that than typical. I do think there was a loose team plan in Eugene to not lee Jakob hold the lead easily. Both guys failed in taking the lead back and Kipsang didn’t protect it particular well either.

Awsi Dooger wrote:

Jakob will win. Methodically dictating from the front is by far the best strategy when you are a prodigy with the most talent in the field. Thankfully he understands that. Jakob would only be vulnerable if he ran like an American from the back, tossing away his advantage by enabling unnecessary complications.

Mu's absence all year is damaging in that it removes that frequent sight of controlling from the front. Americans have been brainwashed since grade school to gush over late rallies. When Americans show up in the junior events you know darn well they'll settle in the back. With Ethiopians the names don't matter at all. Those juniors will race at the front.

Jakob got cocky last year, unconcerned when Wightman drew alongside. Wightman used the perfect surprise tactic of doing it in two stages. He settled first, prompting Jakob to believe he would remain there, slightly behind. Once Jakob relaxed, Wightman surged again. Game over.

Jakob will use that example to make sure he has greater margin. He'll look at the screen and try to maintain at least 2 meters. The tactics are similar to Farah but Farah could outsprint anyone so he didn't care if the chief threats were slightly back.

If Jakob loses it's going to require an unusual tactic that isn't foreseeable right now.