I think the 1500 will be an interesting case study. Will everyone try to go with him if he sets a hot pace? Will someone emerge and come close (or succeed) to beating him like Wightman? Or does everyone spend so much time jockeying that the medalists end up being guys who were patient and ran clean 3:29 type races mid-pack. Ultimately if you defer too much behind a good front runner and spend all .
and he’ll amaze us all by winning the final by at least a second in low 3:28 with no pacers. He’s that good this year.
and he’ll amaze us all by winning the final by at least a second in low 3:28 with no pacers. He’s that good this year.
0.94 sec in the case of Katir
0.79 sec in the case of Girma
with 2 pacers and wave lights.
Ok, just making my prediction. Certainly it may be wrong, but it’s no fun to equivocate is it? I think in the end, “I’m the pacemaker….” will be the quote of the year (Thank you, Rojo) and Jakob will front run to a gold medal in a very fast time.
On the 3,000 question…yes there are many guys who can run 7:22-25. I’ve long said here his best event is the 3,000. In 2019, he got 4th in the 1500 and 4th in the 5,000. I think you could credibly argue had the 1500 been a 3000 he beats everyone in the field. In the 5,000 he might not beat every single guy there in a 3,000, but he’d be no lower than 3rd for me and possibly 2nd or 1st. The challenge for the field will be making every kilometer count.
You want to beat Jakob? Only chance is to open the first 1000 in 2.30. Then Jakob will probably not follow. If you then continue the next 3 in 2.32. Hopefully you then have an 8 seconds lead before the last kilometer. Then a last k in 2.28, that will secure the victory, as Jakob can not close in 2.20. Yes, it demands a new world record to beat him!
As this will of course never happen, Jakob will win in any kind of race!
You want to beat Jakob? Only chance is to open the first 1000 in 2.30. Then Jakob will probably not follow. If you then continue the next 3 in 2.32. Hopefully you then have an 8 seconds lead before the last kilometer. Then a last k in 2.28, that will secure the victory, as Jakob can not close in 2.20. Yes, it demands a new world record to beat him!
As this will of course never happen, Jakob will win in any kind of race!
This is simply not true. What some may not realize is that fitness is fluid. There are fluctuations in fitness for every human, and there are day to day variations also. Jakob ran 7:54. How many days this year could Jakob have run 7:54? Very few probably and maybe only one. Jakob can be defeated. I would be shocked if Jakob can run faster than 12:39 and he can be outkicked. So it does not take a miracle to defeat him.
Jakob was not quite 19 years old here. Hagos Gebrhiwer had run 26:48 on July 17th to win the Ethiopian Trials. This was July 20th, so Hagos had the 10000m in his legs whereas young Jakob was only a 3:30.16 runner at this time, so it may not be that relevant now but:
Hagos Gebrhiwet and Jakob Ingebrigtsen battled during the fifnal lap of the men's 5000m in London, with the Ethiopian pulling ahead late to take the win. #NB...
Scorching heat or raining sleet can totally offset the logical times we're expecting - The weather in Europe in August can go bananans - remember Helsinki 2005?
Lol no. The 5000 final takes place a couple days after the 1500 final and Jakob's probably gonna try run the gas out of his opponents in that event, like he was able to do in 2021 and just failed to do it last year. And all the Ethiopians, Kenyans, Ugandans and Spaniards trust their kicks enough against a tired Ingebrigtsen. Do I think Jakob will be pushed out of the medals? No. My top 3 at Worlds is Aregawi, Ingebrigtsen and Cheptegei in that order.
Lol no. The 5000 final takes place a couple days after the 1500 final and Jakob's probably gonna try run the gas out of his opponents in that event, like he was able to do in 2021 and just failed to do it last year. And all the Ethiopians, Kenyans, Ugandans and Spaniards trust their kicks enough against a tired Ingebrigtsen. Do I think Jakob will be pushed out of the medals? No. My top 3 at Worlds is Aregawi, Ingebrigtsen and Cheptegei in that order.
Not exactly. Jakob will get plenty of rest. The 5000 heats are less than 24 hours after the 1500 final. But the 5000 final is 3 days after the heat, on the final evening of the meet.
You want to beat Jakob? Only chance is to open the first 1000 in 2.30. Then Jakob will probably not follow. If you then continue the next 3 in 2.32. Hopefully you then have an 8 seconds lead before the last kilometer. Then a last k in 2.28, that will secure the victory, as Jakob can not close in 2.20. Yes, it demands a new world record to beat him!
As this will of course never happen, Jakob will win in any kind of race!
Hey I was thinking about this last night and came to the exact same conclusion. 2:30 at 1k and no slower than 5:02 at 2k with a group of 3-4 on the pace (likely the 12:40-41 guys from this year). I agree he would not go with that pace and then would be forced to throw in a few sub-60 laps mid race as he couldn't be 100% confident of the race coming back to him. This could potentially burn the matches he needs to save for the last 600.
This is a highly unlikely scenario yet the only way I can see him not winning which is astonishing really.
You want to beat Jakob? Only chance is to open the first 1000 in 2.30. Then Jakob will probably not follow. If you then continue the next 3 in 2.32. Hopefully you then have an 8 seconds lead before the last kilometer. Then a last k in 2.28, that will secure the victory, as Jakob can not close in 2.20. Yes, it demands a new world record to beat him!
As this will of course never happen, Jakob will win in any kind of race!
He is definitely going to lose the 5k. 1500 he has a shot.
What some may not realize is that fitness is fluid. There are fluctuations in fitness for every human, and there are day to day variations also. Jakob can be defeated.
Fitness is fluid, right! But look at the history since the last olympics. Jakob number 2 after Tim at the diamond league final, Jakob number 2 after Samuel at world indoors (sick with covid) and Jakob number 2 after Jake at worlds. Apart from those 3 second placings, he won every race! NOBODY is as consistent as Jakob, not Cheptegei, not Gebrhiwet, not Kiplimo, not Krop...Example: last winter Aregawi ran 7.26 indoor, but failed to qualify for the final at the worlds!
You want to beat Jakob? Only chance is to open the first 1000 in 2.30. Then Jakob will probably not fol
Hey I was thinking about this last night and came to the exact same conclusion. 2:30 at 1k and no slower than 5:02 at 2k with a group of 3-4 on the pace (likely the 12:40-41 guys from this year). I agree he would not go with that pace and then would be forced to throw in a few sub-60 laps mid race as he couldn't be 100% confident of the race coming back to him. This could potentially burn the matches he needs to save for the last 600.
This is a highly unlikely scenario yet the only way I can see him not winning which is astonishing really.
Two years ago in Florence. At 3000 Jakob was two seconds behind. Then he threw in a sub-60 lap, and there he was.
Of course. Cheat shoes and the latest “pharmaceutical aids” wouldn’t have it any other way. Have fun watching a bunch of dopes redline it for 12 and a half laps.
The Africans :) who exactly will take the pace? You think Ethiopians, Kenyan, Ugandans will get together to talk strategy? No. Everyone wants to be World Champion. Most likely Florence type of race, with sub 7:30 last 3k, 2:20 last K.
None of the others can even run 3000 m with Jakob all out, let alone 1500 or 1000. No matter what happens, Jakob is going to be with the leaders with 800 to 1000 to go, so the issue is how do you get to that point in the race where Jakob is no longer able to summon his clear advantage over the others to cover the distance remaining in the fastest time? How fast does the race have to be to that point, or how fast does race have to be from 3-4K to put the hurt on Jakob sufficient that he’s rendered vulnerable over the final K? How much does the first 3K matter, or is it all about the 4th km? Honestly, I’m not sure there is any reasonable or realistic answer to solving the Jakob puzzle.
Well you raise an interesting point BUT 8 of the 13 sub 12:43 races were this year. How many of those guys could have run maybe 7:58 or so for 2 miles on that day? Probably a few. Or maybe they could run 7:23ish on those days. I am not sure but these 12:41ish guys have to make Jakob a little nervous.
Definitely a few. Kejelcha ran 8:00 last 3200m in his 5k with a 54 last lap. I objectively think that race more impressive than the 7:54.
7:58 was a weak record ~ 7:25 ish 3k.
Best case is for those dudes imo is to run that exact same way. Run a solid first mile. And then force Jakob to run sub 8 for this last 8 laps to win and finish in 53.
I’m not sure if he has that in him fresh, let alone at the end of the meet.
I get what you’re saying but there are so many variables. If 2016 Rio were run similarly 10 times, Centro doesn’t win all 10. Similarly in a slowish 5000m, Jakob doesn’t win 10/10 times. I would rather hunt him down. Breaking away from him is a very tall task. Hunting him down is also but with 5 hunters I could see one of them getting the kill. We all may be surprised on race day. That is what keeps us watching.
I think the 1500 will be an interesting case study. Will everyone try to go with him if he sets a hot pace? Will someone emerge and come close (or succeed) to beating him like Wightman? Or does everyone spend so much time jockeying that the medalists end up being guys who were patient and ran clean 3:29 type races mid-pack. Ultimately if you defer too much behind a good front runner and spend all your time fighting for position that works right into their hands. Especially with Kiplimo/Aregawi/Kejelcha/Kipkorir who I don’t trust as much from a positioning/navigating the pack standpoint. So for the above 4 I don’t think passivity is necessarily the best especially if they’re willing to work together a little bit. For Cheptegei/Krop/Katir/Gebrhiwet/Grijalva/Chelimo I see the argument to sit on him perhaps more.
He’s the best my maybe a second. Setting the pace makes him the de facto rabbit for everyone else. In most cases, I would say that makes him a sitting duck.
However, Wightman is the only speed based 800m runner who can sit on him and outkick. 1500m fields used to have a mix of 800/1500 guys and 1500/5000 guys. Now, there’s not a single guy that’s truly competitive in the 800m.
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