A California Runner has won that past 4 national cross country championships. How likely is there to be a 5th peat??

ps cch wrote:

from what i've seen of the top CA talents, they are about 20 seconds behind what would typically be expected of NXN-winning fitness potential

doesn't mean one of them won't win, but without even knowing who the other top national talents are, i'd put money on a non-californian winning

if you aren't at least flirting with a course record at mt sac and/or woodward park, it's very unlikely

always exceptions wrote:

ps cch wrote:

from what i've seen of the top CA talents, they are about 20 seconds behind what would typically be expected of NXN-winning fitness potential

doesn't mean one of them won't win, but without even knowing who the other top national talents are, i'd put money on a non-californian winning

if you aren't at least flirting with a course record at mt sac and/or woodward park, it's very unlikely

Liam Anderson never really ran any exceptional times. He won CIF DIII his senior year in a time of 14:55. No where near one of the fastest times on the course. But when he won NXN it was a record at the time. He also finished 3rd the year before.

Why the race is run wrote:

always exceptions wrote:

Liam Anderson never really ran any exceptional times. He won CIF DIII his senior year in a time of 14:55. No where near one of the fastest times on the course. But when he won NXN it was a record at the time. He also finished 3rd the year before.

Or look at last year's winner. His own teammates were the ones flirting with course records while he was a solid 3rd runner.

Farandaway wrote:

Ventura's Anthony Fast Horse has the highest speed rating in the country this season at 198 () in winning Clovis Invite at Woodward in 14:32.50. That was six weeks ago so don't know if he's still that fit.

Link:http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Hig...

germanf wrote:

CoachB wrote:

Although CA doesn’t have a clear standout like Simmons (nobody does, he’s 10 seconds better than the next best returner over 3200), they do have 5 of the top 13 returners at 3200 and 6 of the top 16.

it isn’t inconceivable that one of these guys could hit a big improvement over the next 5 months.

almost nobody saw German Fernandez coming his senior year.

german fernandez ran 9:06 his junior year. I heard he was playing basketball all the time and not taking running seriously at all until his senior year

Hobby10k wrote:

Huangdi wrote:

0.00001 chance another California runner wins again but if you told me at the end of 2022 track that AARON SAHLMAN would win against one the most stacked NXN fields of all time that included 2 sub 4 milers and a 13:40 runner I would have reported you to the proper authorities in a prompt manner

I don't think it was the most absurd thing to think he could have done it if you had to predict right around June 2022.

He still had respectable 3200 time and a 4 or 4:01 mile. He definitely had the capability of a monster kick with his 800m time.

It only became more absurd to think he could win after seeing his 2022 XC form going into NXN. Like he seemed to have fallen behind the Youngs all throughout 2022 XC when it seemed like going into the year he'd be right there with them.

Wayje wrote:

At NXN, this isn’t happening.

Daniel Simmons will win

dustdevil wrote:

Hobby10k wrote:

I don't think it was the most absurd thing to think he could have done it if you had to predict right around June 2022.

He still had respectable 3200 time and a 4 or 4:01 mile. He definitely had the capability of a monster kick with his 800m time.

It only became more absurd to think he could win after seeing his 2022 XC form going into NXN. Like he seemed to have fallen behind the Youngs all throughout 2022 XC when it seemed like going into the year he'd be right there with them.

Another vote for Fasthorse to win it!

But why it was absurd to pick Aaron Sahlman to win NXN in 2022? He had never won a single varsity high school XC meet in his whole high school career. Gosh...was he ever even the #2 man? Just crazy....

trailrunner86 wrote:

I heard fast horse is injured now. Noonan ran 14:35 Woodward Park. 14:35 isn't going to cut it against Simmons. He needed to go under 14:30.

Simmons will win this but Noonan should try for second.

trailrunner86 wrote:

I heard fast horse is injured now. Noonan ran 14:35 Woodward Park. 14:35 isn't going to cut it against Simmons. He needed to go under 14:30.

Simmons will win this but Noonan should try for second.

cali45 wrote:

2022 - Aaron Salhman won NXN over kole mathison whom won footlocker

2021 - Colin Salhman won runninglane national championships

2019 -Nico Young won NXN over Methner whom later won foolocker

2018- Liam Anderson won NXN over Cole Hocker whom later won footlocker

Is it possible to get a 5th peat? I know daniel simmons is probably going to win it, and it seems pretty unlikely because California isn't returning any crazy fast runners in 2023. What do you guys think?

budbud wrote:

Danny's kick is just as good if not better than Noonan's. If you look at the data, he can put 15+ seconds on people in the last mile and if you don't recall, why did he take 2nd last year? Because he closed like a train. He also beat Jojo Jordan by 10 seconds at NXR, who defeated Noonan at Firman.