SayWhattttt? wrote:
1500m predictions?
1. Jakob wins in 3:45.55
2. Wrightman 2nd in 3:47.13
3. Kerr 3rd in 3:52.15
You heard it here first.
Uhhhh... I think they're running the 1500m, not the mile.
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20
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Have a feeling and some insider intel it's not going to be the night for it.
1) The weather - which in reality for the duration of the race, as long as it's not hammering down and windy, isn't that big of a deal - is a big deal for the warmup/mental approach.
2) The field. With Wightman out, none of the main OAC guys, Katir, (Tim C?) - it's a good field but not an elite field.
3) Jakob has a 3 year deal with Lausanne underway - 150 bills to start there for the next 3 years. This doesn't mean he won't/can't run fast there but it does make it slightly different from a meet which he might specifically pick to chase a fast time (ie. with the slightly diminished field in this one he ordinarily might not choose this to race). I think it alters the mindset a bit.
I think we will see the pace even slightly slower than Oslo (maybe 1.52.5/1.53) and Jakob uses it as "tactical execution" practice for Budapest. If he hits 800 in that high 1.52/low 1.53 zone then it's probably 2.48 high at 1200 which set's up for something in the 3.30.low's and maybe just under 3.30 if he feels good. Put it this way, I think this race we see something similar to the execution of the Rabat race - only difference being a slightly quicker opening 2 laps.
I think you’ve hit on it well. People are like the field doesn’t matter…of course it does! Have you seen how Jakob races B-level meets or European meets (Pre-Katir) vs a loaded field like Oslo? He is not going to fear anyone else in this field. In the back of his head, that might make all the difference. He’ll ponder “do I run 40-41 seconds from 900-1200 or cruise in through at 42-43 before separating over the last 300.” If they come through 900 in ~2:06, I’m pretty skeptical he lifts the pace like he would in a more stacked field.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Have a feeling and some insider intel it's not going to be the night for it.
1) The weather - which in reality for the duration of the race, as long as it's not hammering down and windy, isn't that big of a deal - is a big deal for the warmup/mental approach.
2) The field. With Wightman out, none of the main OAC guys, Katir, (Tim C?) - it's a good field but not an elite field.
3) Jakob has a 3 year deal with Lausanne underway - 150 bills to start there for the next 3 years. This doesn't mean he won't/can't run fast there but it does make it slightly different from a meet which he might specifically pick to chase a fast time (ie. with the slightly diminished field in this one he ordinarily might not choose this to race). I think it alters the mindset a bit.
I think we will see the pace even slightly slower than Oslo (maybe 1.52.5/1.53) and Jakob uses it as "tactical execution" practice for Budapest. If he hits 800 in that high 1.52/low 1.53 zone then it's probably 2.48 high at 1200 which set's up for something in the 3.30.low's and maybe just under 3.30 if he feels good. Put it this way, I think this race we see something similar to the execution of the Rabat race - only difference being a slightly quicker opening 2 laps.
I think you’ve hit on it well. People are like the field doesn’t matter…of course it does! Have you seen how Jakob races B-level meets or European meets (Pre-Katir) vs a loaded field like Oslo? He is not going to fear anyone else in this field. In the back of his head, that might make all the difference. He’ll ponder “do I run 40-41 seconds from 900-1200 or cruise in through at 42-43 before separating over the last 300.” If they come through 900 in ~2:06, I’m pretty skeptical he lifts the pace like he would in a more stacked field.
Yeah the combination of factors are going to compound on this one. It's kind of crazy the era we are in though where we are talking about him not going full gas and still being a threat to 3.30 which at one point was the Holy Grail for some of the greatest and most talented 1500m runners of all time (Cram, Aouita, Coe). I'll say 3.30.21 winning by 6 meters.
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
I think you’ve hit on it well. People are like the field doesn’t matter…of course it does! Have you seen how Jakob races B-level meets or European meets (Pre-Katir) vs a loaded field like Oslo? He is not going to fear anyone else in this field. In the back of his head, that might make all the difference. He’ll ponder “do I run 40-41 seconds from 900-1200 or cruise in through at 42-43 before separating over the last 300.” If they come through 900 in ~2:06, I’m pretty skeptical he lifts the pace like he would in a more stacked field.
Yeah the combination of factors are going to compound on this one. It's kind of crazy the era we are in though where we are talking about him not going full gas and still being a threat to 3.30 which at one point was the Holy Grail for some of the greatest and most talented 1500m runners of all time (Cram, Aouita, Coe). I'll say 3.30.21 winning by 6 meters.
Maybe Kerr forces a slightly faster winning time from JI. 3:29.xx in June might be a nice psychological boost for the Scotsman, a small but meaningful confirmation that he's not playing catch-up.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Have a feeling and some insider intel it's not going to be the night for it.
1) The weather - which in reality for the duration of the race, as long as it's not hammering down and windy, isn't that big of a deal - is a big deal for the warmup/mental approach.
2) The field. With Wightman out, none of the main OAC guys, Katir, (Tim C?) - it's a good field but not an elite field.
3) Jakob has a 3 year deal with Lausanne underway - 150 bills to start there for the next 3 years. This doesn't mean he won't/can't run fast there but it does make it slightly different from a meet which he might specifically pick to chase a fast time (ie. with the slightly diminished field in this one he ordinarily might not choose this to race). I think it alters the mindset a bit.
I think we will see the pace even slightly slower than Oslo (maybe 1.52.5/1.53) and Jakob uses it as "tactical execution" practice for Budapest. If he hits 800 in that high 1.52/low 1.53 zone then it's probably 2.48 high at 1200 which set's up for something in the 3.30.low's and maybe just under 3.30 if he feels good. Put it this way, I think this race we see something similar to the execution of the Rabat race - only difference being a slightly quicker opening 2 laps.
I think you’ve hit on it well. People are like the field doesn’t matter…of course it does! Have you seen how Jakob races B-level meets or European meets (Pre-Katir) vs a loaded field like Oslo? He is not going to fear anyone else in this field. In the back of his head, that might make all the difference. He’ll ponder “do I run 40-41 seconds from 900-1200 or cruise in through at 42-43 before separating over the last 300.” If they come through 900 in ~2:06, I’m pretty skeptical he lifts the pace like he would in a more stacked field.
I think and hope he will go for a faster time than in Oslo.
He stated already before the season that he wanted to run some fast time this year. He also stated after Oslo that he felt he could faster so I think will try to do that in Lausanne and Silesia.
And do they call in Sowinski if it is not going to be fast?
A mediocre field in Paris didn´t prevent him from running a fast 2 mile.
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
1500 expert wrote:
1 Jakob 3:27.21
2 Kerr 3:28.76
3 Wightman 3:29.61
4 Farken 3:29.92
5 Gourley 3:30.28
2) The field. With Wightman out, none of the main OAC guys, Katir, (Tim C?) - it's a good field but not an elite field.
You forgot "Nuguse".
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I'm connected to Jakob's legs and cardio vascular system.
I know exactly where he stands right now.
He will run 3:28:04
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@ Salvitore Schistmo
Sounds like the "World Athletics" has more brain than you and a lot of people here.
I pray day and night for the for the first demise of your musketeer.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted. Reason provided: Fixing link05 -
Cheruiyot is a past, he will never come back.
I'm sorry to say that.
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I believe the wave light is set to Jakob’s newly set European record. I think he’ll be ahead of it and dominate the field once more;
1. Jakob 3:26:70
2. Kerr 3:29:40
3. Girma 3:30:30
4. Gourley 3:31:00
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I saw a recent interview from a week or so back where Jakob stated he wanted to go as far below 3:30 as possible at Lausanne. That plan may have changed now that some of the top contenders have withdrawn or we may see a super solo effort.
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Wavelight settings for the 1500m tonight:
400m: 55.6
800m: 1.51:3
1000m: 2.19.1
1500m: 3.27.95
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VoR wrote:
Wavelight settings for the 1500m tonight:
400m: 55.6
800m: 1.51:3
1000m: 2.19.1
1500m: 3.27.95
Let’s hope he outruns the lights!
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GreatDane wrote:
I saw a recent interview from a week or so back where Jakob stated he wanted to go as far below 3:30 as possible at Lausanne. That plan may have changed now that some of the top contenders have withdrawn or we may see a super solo effort.
Isn´t it always a solo effort?
When have somebody other than Jakob taken the position after the pacemakers in a 1500m/ mile race?
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Excellent conditions for the 5000 tonight.
Not sure why they set the lights for the Swiss record, but at least it's very close to the WC standard (half a second slower).
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objectiveobserver wrote:
GreatDane wrote:
I saw a recent interview from a week or so back where Jakob stated he wanted to go as far below 3:30 as possible at Lausanne. That plan may have changed now that some of the top contenders have withdrawn or we may see a super solo effort.
Isn´t it always a solo effort?
When have somebody other than Jakob taken the position after the pacemakers in a 1500m/ mile race?
Yes I mentioned that more due to previous comments suggesting other fast runners were needed for a fast time to be run by Jakob. With the type of shape Jakob is in right now I’m sure he could head to the track and run a 1500m without a single other runner in the race and still easily knock out a sub 3:30.
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GreatDane wrote:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Isn´t it always a solo effort?
When have somebody other than Jakob taken the position after the pacemakers in a 1500m/ mile race?
Yes I mentioned that more due to previous comments suggesting other fast runners were needed for a fast time to be run by Jakob. With the type of shape Jakob is in right now I’m sure he could head to the track and run a 1500m without a single other runner in the race and still easily knock out a sub 3:30.
Yes in reality he´s running a solo race with pacemakers as he did very clearly in the 2 mile.
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VoR wrote:
Wavelight settings for the 1500m tonight:
400m: 55.6
800m: 1.51:3
1000m: 2.19.1
1500m: 3.27.95
Wow, then it's on.
Based on this we can guess J.I wants to run 56.0/1.51.7 and through the kilo in 2.19.3 so sub 2.47 at 1200. So that's 56/ 55.7/ 55.2 and then letting it rip the last 300 as fast as he can.
It's super interesting to see how he wants to run these races - the first 400m of the race is planned as easily the slowest and he tries run each following lap a handful of tenths faster than the previous. Totally the opposite of 25 years ago where it seemed like only the 800m time mattered and it didn't really matter how you got there (if it was 1.50 it could be 53.5/56.5 and then a 55 second third lap).
Good luck to him, going to be an interesting watch now we know the pace is on!
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
VoR wrote:
Wavelight settings for the 1500m tonight:
400m: 55.6
800m: 1.51:3
1000m: 2.19.1
1500m: 3.27.95
Wow, then it's on.
Based on this we can guess J.I wants to run 56.0/1.51.7 and through the kilo in 2.19.3 so sub 2.47 at 1200. So that's 56/ 55.7/ 55.2 and then letting it rip the last 300 as fast as he can.
It's super interesting to see how he wants to run these races - the first 400m of the race is planned as easily the slowest and he tries run each following lap a handful of tenths faster than the previous. Totally the opposite of 25 years ago where it seemed like only the 800m time mattered and it didn't really matter how you got there (if it was 1.50 it could be 53.5/56.5 and then a 55 second third lap).
Good luck to him, going to be an interesting watch now we know the pace is on!
Yeah I’m starting to think maybe JAKOBNUMBER1FAN really is connected to Jakob’s legs and cardiovascular system.
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Did anyone catch Jakob rizzing up Keely during the press conference ?
I think she might have a shot with him if the Hassers engagement doesn't work out
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