How does Jakob break the WR in the 1500m...

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

osm wrote:

I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.

So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).

I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.

It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

osm wrote:

I should probably stop doubting Jakob because he keeps making me look stupid every time. That said, I still see his relative lack of 800 speed being the limiting factor here. Sure he can go faster than 1:46, but I think 1:44 high is probably around his ceiling. El G was able to overcome a similar speed deficit with a truckload of EPO, but that option isn't available anymore. Both the 5k and 10k records look more in range, and Jakob himself seems to agree based on his statements.

So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).

I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.

It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.

OTOH wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

So I understand the 800m speed perspective and for a long time I felt the same. But I am slowly changing that POV. What do the last 2 world record holders have in common? Both were elite over 3000m (Morceli held the WR and El G is still technically 2AT even though Jakob just ran faster en route in his 2 mile). I think 3000m speed endurance is more important than 800m speed which was probably the most important when the sport was looking at it's WR in the low 3.30's/high 3.20's - Ovett, Coe, Cram, Aouita (with Aouita being that transition guy to show how important 3000m excellence is to this new plateau of the record).

I personally don't think his 800m time really matters. He's not trying to run back to back 51.5's, he's trying to run 3 x 55.0 and under 41 seconds for the last 300 and "elite" 800m speed (1.42/43) doesn't help this. What helps that is being able to run 8 laps back to back at 59 seconds which is what he basically what he did in Paris. He doesn't have EPO or quite the same leg speed as Hicham, but he's evidently just as strong aerobically without it and he now runs in an era where pacemaking is markedly better thanks to LED technology.

It's all great discussion and love the POV's on the thread.

I think prio #1 for JI is to win rather than WR, maybe "just" a PB is also a focus.

This is a loaded field, maybe more so than the WC 1500 where he came 2nd trying defend surges from the likes of Cheruiyot. The 2 mile WB was a time trial where he didn't have to worry about competitors he was so far ahead. So...does having heavy competition help or hinder JI? If it hinders him the WR is a no go. Webb and Steve Holman always seemed to underperform given their PBs and early talent, maybe they didn't handle the pressure. JI does seem to thrive on the pressure though. On the one had he has to not be sucked into the surges, but If he stays off all of them, he risks getting gapped and loses due to his "slow" kick that half the posters point out. Maybe the pace will be so hard from the get go their won't be any serious surges other than a final lap commit. I don't think he'll be doing his tactical easy start at the back of the pack for the first lap or two, that would be the height of confidence wouldn't it!

Another point, the forecast for Oslo is a freakishly hot 32c, though the winds are light.

objectiveobserver wrote:

OTOH wrote:

I think prio #1 for JI is to win rather than WR, maybe "just" a PB is also a focus.

This is a loaded field, maybe more so than the WC 1500 where he came 2nd trying defend surges from the likes of Cheruiyot. The 2 mile WB was a time trial where he didn't have to worry about competitors he was so far ahead. So...does having heavy competition help or hinder JI? If it hinders him the WR is a no go. Webb and Steve Holman always seemed to underperform given their PBs and early talent, maybe they didn't handle the pressure. JI does seem to thrive on the pressure though. On the one had he has to not be sucked into the surges, but If he stays off all of them, he risks getting gapped and loses due to his "slow" kick that half the posters point out. Maybe the pace will be so hard from the get go their won't be any serious surges other than a final lap commit. I don't think he'll be doing his tactical easy start at the back of the pack for the first lap or two, that would be the height of confidence wouldn't it!

Another point, the forecast for Oslo is a freakishly hot 32c, though the winds are light.

What a lot of speculation. You are writing about the guy who won easily all paced races in the mile and 1500m last year. And he seems to be one level up this year.

My prediction:

He will go straight after the pacemakers and gap the field before or in the beginning of the last lap.

I will be surprised if any other runner comes closer than 1 sec behind.