Your use of general statements which you then follow up with very specific statements, as though you originally made the specific point, are again indications that you can't let go of the cake you are also eating.
Attempts to be cryptic are not serving you well. Make an argument or why even post?
This exact same thread has been popping up for ~4 years now. Draw your own conclusions.
It is hard to improve when you are a phenom at the top and setting records at ages 16-18. Bekele’s peak was at age 22-23. Barega’s was 18-20 and he’s plateaued pretty much since then. While I think Jakobs physical prime for the 1500 might’ve been hit in 2021, there’s room for a PB (non-champs/rounds setting) and he’s intentionally left a lot of meat on the bone in the 3,000-10,000. You also become a better racer and can improve certain aspects tactically (like Bekele did).
He looked super smooth, out-kicked Nuguse (who's been mowing people down), stated the goal to run fast this year, and exuded confidence as usual. I see no evidence of what the OP is proposing, exept that he didn't PR last year. He appears on pace for a PR or two this year on first glance.
This exact same thread has been popping up for ~4 years now. Draw your own conclusions.
It is hard to improve when you are a phenom at the top and setting records at ages 16-18. Bekele’s peak was at age 22-23. Barega’s was 18-20 and he’s plateaued pretty much since then. While I think Jakobs physical prime for the 1500 might’ve been hit in 2021, there’s room for a PB (non-champs/rounds setting) and he’s intentionally left a lot of meat on the bone in the 3,000-10,000. You also become a better racer and can improve certain aspects tactically (like Bekele did).
Good points about becoming a more savvy racer and recognizing how in the early 20s many greats reach their physical peak on the track. For Jakob to maintain where he is at is no easy feat. He needs to stay healthy and hungry. He is being pursued. Could he run another 3:28? It is possible of course. His ceiling at 3000m/2 miles is likely close to Hicham’s. It seems to be Jacob’s sweet spot. He could run 7:24 and 8:00. The future is bright for him even if he maintains this level.
He was already sub 3:28 in 2021. And he is stronger and faster now. He can go sub 3:27 if he joins a race under good conditions in the high season.
Sub-3:27 is asking a lot. I hope it happens but I could see a 2 mile WR before I see that.
One reason is pacemaking. Could they pay Reynold Cheruiyot/Vincent Keter a small fortune to run to take Jakob, Tim and Kipsang through 1100 or 1200 at 3:28 pace? I think 600 from the front at that speed might be too much. So unless he gets a perfect ride like with Tim in Tokyo…
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This is it folks. You have seen peak Jakob. He may maintain for a few years but you have seen the best of him. No shame in that either as he is great. He is great for the sport. But he has stopped improving. No surprise there of course.
Well, he started training like a pro at a very young age so it stands to reason he hits his lifetime best early, too. But if you can run 3:28 you are not going to have much competition. It's not necessary to keep on improving once you are that good. El G never improved after his mid-20s and he was successful until he retired at 30.
I don’t see him running into his Mid to Late 30s like most other successful runners who progressively move up in distance as they get older.
He has found success much earlier, so he will likely retire earlier as well.
More of a mental thing than physical thing.
He Will be close to all the World Records 10k and under for sure, maybe break some, idk about Steeple tho, and medals at each event for Worlds/Olympics.
Marathon is also an unknown, but definitely 2:03-2:04 would be expected. Idk about 1:59-2:01 times.
It's hard to say because of the imbecile who decided to scrap the 1500m at Monaco.
He may well have ran 3:27 at Monaco last year. The year before he was coming back off a week with a flu and still ran low 3:29 or something like that.
He ran 3:29.0 at the end of last season in Zurich. A couple of years ago, everybody here would say that Monaco is at least a second faster than Zurich.
He definitely seemed to have made a major improvement in the 5000m last season. Hope the OP isn't basing his claim over 1 race where he easily demolished the guy 3/4 of the board were predicting would wipe the floor with him.
Damn, it’s like there are limits to human performance and as you approach those limits the rate of year over year improvement decelerates and potentially plateaus. Who would have thought?
Haven't read through the whole thread, but the title is pretty much accurate. Jakob is the best 1500/5000 runner in the world, but his performances have indeed plateaued in the last few years. He's still the favorite for Paris, and back to back Olympic golds would be an incredible career. There's just no reason to think he has another breakthrough at this point, and that upsets the white supremacists on this board who convinced themselves he'd get the world record. He can certainly get under 12:45 with good pacing, and maybe he's capable of 3:27 high if he gets a perfect race in Monaco, but we're absolutely seeing his peak now.
I believe 2023 or 2024 will be Jakobs peak in terms of time performances, but he may stay at the top in terms of global finishes for a while as he develops race intelligence.
He is slowing down in his improvement because there isn’t much space to go. Perhaps he runs 3:25/7:19/12:34 but he can’t go much faster than that.
The premise of this thread is ridiculous. Jakob ran his 1500 PB in August 2021 and his 5000 PB in May 2021. He ran his mile PB just last year. There was no Monaco 1500 last year and he never ran a 5000 TT because he focussed on winning gold. His level is so high that any progress is going to be incremental and non-linear - this isn't some kid in his first couple of years as a pro.
Grinding down that 1500 time is going to be hard but I think he has 3:27 in him, but that kind of performance will need perfect conditions. The 5000 PB will inevitably come down, under 12:40 at least.
The premise of this thread is ridiculous. Jakob ran his 1500 PB in August 2021 and his 5000 PB in May 2021. He ran his mile PB just last year. There was no Monaco 1500 last year and he never ran a 5000 TT because he focussed on winning gold. His level is so high that any progress is going to be incremental and non-linear - this isn't some kid in his first couple of years as a pro.
Grinding down that 1500 time is going to be hard but I think he has 3:27 in him, but that kind of performance will need perfect conditions. The 5000 PB will inevitably come down, under 12:40 at least.
I remember when Jakob ran 3:31 at Monaco as a 17 year old, and half the posters here were dismissing it as only worth 3:34 on any other track. Yet he ran 3:29.02 at Zurich at the end of last year when he was exhausted, and it's proof he has stopped improving. The Monaco track was relaid during the Covid pandemic, so it's likely even faster now, but Jakob hasn't had a chance yet to show what he can do on it (and maybe never will due to whoever the imbecile at World Athletics was who decided to stop having the 1500m at Monaco).
This is it folks. You have seen peak Jakob. He may maintain for a few years but you have seen the best of him. No shame in that either as he is great. He is great for the sport. But he has stopped improving. No surprise there of course.