JOSETTE ANDREWS (Norris) 2023 your time is now

fghrunner wrote:

the 5,000m team might be harder to make this year, if schweizer returns to form and cranny focuses on the 5,000m which I suspect she will. Plus monson whos a lock. Norris on a good day can definitely have a chance to beat Cranny and/or Schweizer at their best but there's not much room for error. Also throw in Infled who I think will be sharper and Tuohy who will probably be fitter, and it's a bit crowded at the top. Obviously Norris just handily beat the latter two but just saying it's a top-dense field.

The 1500 feels more open. Hiltz seems on top of their game, but Johnson has looked good-not great and Maclean seems solid and I would give her the slight edge over norris right now but it's close to a 50/50 split. Elle Purrier doesn't seem to be a factor this year. She obviously is very capable of making either team but I think the 1500m seems more safe on a less-than-perfect day like she's had at the trials and last year's USA's.

I also am not sure I like her global medal chances in the 5k much more than I do in the 15. The 15 has historically lent itself more to people with slower PR's grabbing medals than the 5k, where theres a handful of women sub 14:20 and a couple sub 14:10 who easily dropped Cranny back to like 10th last year when she had run 14:33 indoors (and has the same 1500m PR as Norris as well as then-US #2 all time 10,000m). There's a reason no American woman has finished higher than 7th or maybe 6th in the 5,000 while we've had a handful of medals and top 5 finishes in the 15.

fghrunner wrote:

the 5,000m team might be harder to make this year, if schweizer returns to form and cranny focuses on the 5,000m which I suspect she will. Plus monson whos a lock. Norris on a good day can definitely have a chance to beat Cranny and/or Schweizer at their best but there's not much room for error. Also throw in Infled who I think will be sharper and Tuohy who will probably be fitter, and it's a bit crowded at the top. Obviously Norris just handily beat the latter two but just saying it's a top-dense field.

The 1500 feels more open. Hiltz seems on top of their game, but Johnson has looked good-not great and Maclean seems solid and I would give her the slight edge over norris right now but it's close to a 50/50 split. Elle Purrier doesn't seem to be a factor this year. She obviously is very capable of making either team but I think the 1500m seems more safe on a less-than-perfect day like she's had at the trials and last year's USA's.

I also am not sure I like her global medal chances in the 5k much more than I do in the 15. The 15 has historically lent itself more to people with slower PR's grabbing medals than the 5k, where theres a handful of women sub 14:20 and a couple sub 14:10 who easily dropped Cranny back to like 10th last year when she had run 14:33 indoors (and has the same 1500m PR as Norris as well as then-US #2 all time 10,000m). There's a reason no American woman has finished higher than 7th or maybe 6th in the 5,000 while we've had a handful of medals and top 5 finishes in the 15.

fake news wrote:

fghrunner wrote:

the 5,000m team might be harder to make this year, if schweizer returns to form and cranny focuses on the 5,000m which I suspect she will. Plus monson whos a lock. Norris on a good day can definitely have a chance to beat Cranny and/or Schweizer at their best but there's not much room for error. Also throw in Infled who I think will be sharper and Tuohy who will probably be fitter, and it's a bit crowded at the top. Obviously Norris just handily beat the latter two but just saying it's a top-dense field.

The 1500 feels more open. Hiltz seems on top of their game, but Johnson has looked good-not great and Maclean seems solid and I would give her the slight edge over norris right now but it's close to a 50/50 split. Elle Purrier doesn't seem to be a factor this year. She obviously is very capable of making either team but I think the 1500m seems more safe on a less-than-perfect day like she's had at the trials and last year's USA's.

I also am not sure I like her global medal chances in the 5k much more than I do in the 15. The 15 has historically lent itself more to people with slower PR's grabbing medals than the 5k, where theres a handful of women sub 14:20 and a couple sub 14:10 who easily dropped Cranny back to like 10th last year when she had run 14:33 indoors (and has the same 1500m PR as Norris as well as then-US #2 all time 10,000m). There's a reason no American woman has finished higher than 7th or maybe 6th in the 5,000 while we've had a handful of medals and top 5 finishes in the 15.

1500m team might be easier to make for the USA, but yeah I think harder to medal. Historically yes the 1500m has been easier for people to punch above their weight but since 2019 times have changed.

There have only been four medalists in the last 4 years of the 1500m: Sifan Hassan, Gudaf Tseguy, Laura Muir, and Faith Kipyegon.

Bronze medal times:

2019 - 3:54.38 (Tseguy)

2021 - 3:55.86 (Hassan)

2022 - 3:55.28 (Muir)

If Andrews ran her PR in 2019 or 2021 she only would have finished 9th and 7th respectively. To medal in the 1500 she needs to be able to pull out a near 5s PR in her third 1500m in 3 days (bearing in mind as well it took 4:01 in Tokyo just to make the final).

If it isn't an all out time trial, those big three all have 1:57 or better 800 speed plus people like Welteji and Hailu who are 3:56+1:57 runners. Andrews' 800 speed isn't on that level. Those two plus Meshesha are both young as well and I'd be surprised if at least one of them wasn't pushing Muir for her spot this year as Muir gets older.

In the 5000m though, yes Norris might be out of luck in a time trial but it "only" took a 14:47 to medal in Eugene and 14:38 in Tokyo. If Norris can be in 14:30 shape by August, and if the race goes out slow, having sub 4 1500m speed to work with in a fast finish could give you a bit more of a fighting chance beyond basically hoping one of the big 3 falls off a cliff.

There has been more turnover in 5000m medalists in the last 4 years with Tseguy, Chebet, Seyaum, Kipkemboi, Klosterhalfen, Obiri, and Hassan all sharing the podium.