Another run across America underway - is it legit? Boots currently on the ground

I don't know. I don't have social media, and I haven't seen or heard much from him in years. I commented because I find it hard to believe he'd be so flagrantly cheating. I'm wary of forum driven scepticism because sometimes cases can appear to be irrefutably true, only for there to be a rather obvious alternative explanation.

This is a Goodge thread.

Thank you for the constructive feedback. Yes, people are in the know about this now and find it all very odd. It just needed some hardgraft investigative journalism by me, starting with his Jogle in August 2019 to unearth the model they work under. It took me around 10 straight hours on Sunday to analyse his 48 marathons in 30 day stunt [of which 10 were clean].

I suppose about 500 were in the know about this before Sunday which became 5,000 by yesterday morning and I reckon 25,000 about this now, and 100,000 will tomorrow, and half a million more by this time next week, etc. it is on the cusp of the press being shared with me. One prominent editor has just got in touch asking for the story.

His camp refuse to comment or engage except to call me disgusting names which are unprintable, although you have a few in my piece. Goodge has point-blank refused to ever speak to me. I wrote him a really nice friendly letter a month ago gently telling him to let Tulloh go and that 34-40 mile days would be terrific. He did show an excerpt of that letter in a piece to camera to his 137,000 followers, and called me a maggot for suggesting those things, because I "don't know who the f*ck he is, or why he's doing this."

As for point 3, I have absolutely no explanation whatsoever about what it could be, short of cheating. My perplexity is monumental. These figures have never been seen in history, if so, let's hear about them. The guideline is consistent sub 8ks in a long ultra with heart rates of 90-120. He has done well over 2,000ks within this premise now.

Yes, they're being incredibly brazen and blatant. But they're also arrogant and very ignorant about running. Goodge has just called Owen Hind, an international, a doughnut who never did anything.

Hope this helps, W

Just look at his IG. He appears to be a pretty boy/work out bro with no ultra-running experience. I am calling BS on this. The HR will drop if he is riding/sitting inside the van going really slow.

I think tomorrow I am going to do a run with a friend and then walk a bit and pass my Coros watch to a friend walking along side me. Then we will get his readings for a few miles. I want to see how that data looks when I make such a switch. We will try our best to run the same pace, cadence etc. Then I will do a run to a bike test as a continual activity to see how that looks.

If you can't tell, I want to know how these guys cheat. Not just if they cheat. I don't feel like we ever fully learned how Rob Young was doing his cheating.

His route will pass through near my hometown, curious as to whether or not he would mind someone running along side him for a time.

Thanks mate.

He's definitely not on a bike. That watch is measuring running for sure. Is it all his running? Possibly? The heart rate data is very strange and until a categorical explanation is provided then it will yield cause for concern. Probably the best thing to do is actually ask a Coros r+d boffin.

Possibilities:

1) He's doing it for real and the HR anomalies are misinterpretations of the data. That's one for Coros/Garmin to interpret, especially the lack of increase in HR despite maintaining or increasing pace going uphill... The stuff about wrist HR being inaccurate isn't really the case with modern watches, which he has. If anything, when they go wrong they go higher as they tend to match cadence more than HR and Will's watch wasn't doing that.

2) He's doing it for real and that his heart is the irregular factor. This is the least likely option as his previous data doesn't support this

3) It's dodgy. There is definitely some evidence to support this and you can also see motive if you choose to, but there is also the emotional tie to his mum, which would make it pretty rough to be faking it and I'd like to hope that it's for real. It is NOT beyond the realms of possibility that it is. The distance he's covering isn't world class, though it is good and, of course, the longer it goes on, the more impressive it is and also the more likely it is that we should see more signs of struggle. Not seeing much signs of that yet.

The problem I think is that he's created a huge aura of "awesome" about this amd himself and then isn't producing the same level of verification. If I was him, I'd use an OpenTracker, or use the Garmin to provide live tracking, the former being seen as the "standard" for any sort of long distance time based thing in the UK. This would also allow people to come and run with. I'd also get a heart rate strap and STOP THE WATCH when he takes proper breaks. Seeing as he's taking so much heat, I just don't see why, if genuine, he isn't doing this. The longer he doesn't, the stranger it looks. If you're just running the States or JOGLE of course you don't need it, but if you start claiming you're the fastest whatever to do something, you have to do the diligence from the start. Unless you have someone from Garmin and Coros ratifying this, its hard to take at face value. Which of course is a shame all round, whatever the explanation.

The heart rate data, if the assertions made in this thread are correct (about the rarity of data like it, and the fact Will’s seen similar data before on other runs), presumably can’t be 1).

2) is just physiologically impossible, as presented. It’s not a question of mental strength - a man could run himself to death, but your body doesn’t respond to simply wanting it enough by speeding up whilst lowering your heart rate by ~25%.

So it’s either 3), or 4): something about this picture (the information) isn’t complete / correct.

3) just seems improbable, though. What, is everyone in on it? Even if it’s just a few of them, why?

They need to address it ASAP.

1 still is possible. Absolutely so...and could even be the most likely option. Walking pushing the average down. The strange thing was the lack of higher rates and it not changing with seemingly increased effort. I have theories on this that would potentially support WG here, such as gradients not being as dramatic as they seem on a strava plot. Will is just for seemingly no reason whatsoever just failing to make his life easier, if he's genuine by following tracker/strap recommendations.

Isn't what he's doing a federal crime? Pretty sure with him crossing states, have a gofundme, this federal. Just give the FBI a call.

Does Robbie’s speed project run also have the same issues?

This is exactly the kind of mindset that frauds and psychopaths rely on. 99% of people can't imagine that anyone would waste the time and energy to fake something like this, especially when it's for charity, or in memory of their parent, or because they're doing it for their kids, or whatever. And yet every single time one of these cases comes up in the running community that's exactly what they're doing! Robert Young had an inspirational message too, and a crew, and even a professional sponsor. I'd have to look back but I don't think he got to day 3 of his run without cheating (and he 100% without a doubt cheated outside of the Grand Canyon). Kip Litton was the same way-- he was always a fraud from the very start.

I haven't been following this one as closely but the second you see that there is weird data and the response from the crew is to attack people rather than to say "huh, that's weird, let us share more information so you know we aren't cheating" I think it's pretty easy to see which way this is going.

I'm not saying they are cheating. WG looks to be an incredible athlete but making a claim to be setting any type of world record in an event like this, should absolutely be scrutinised by people and backed up with unquestionable, unbiased proof, which should be easily done these days. Having looked at events various publications it feels like the WG camp could be doing a far more transparent job in setting any doubters and questions to rest. I can't help but feel the way the WG team have responded to any criticism (by mostly one person so far) looks to be straight out of the Armstrong/Bruyneel playbook. I can't help but also see so many similarities materialising from the whole Armstrong scandal, (although on a much smaller scale) from the characters themselves to the very intangibles of the situation. One thing is for sure, the longer this goes on, the more the numbers/data look inconsistent, without more transparent or third party monitoring from the WG team, the more negative attention and more questions will come. And if they are/have cheated in some way, the truth will come out sooner or later, just like with Armstrong. Until then, people should respectfully keep calling out what they see is BS and don't be discouraged by any kind of aggression from any side. As long as you feel what you are doing is right and just, keep digging. Where is @DavidWalshST when you need him? haha

-Betsy

Hi all, thanks for the thorough, serious and sober analysis. Two things to jump on at once: I don't understand what's meant by a misinterpretation of the data. He has done thousands of since 2019 at sub-8 pace at sub 120bpm. My interpretation of this is that it's impossible, and I'm sure it is not a misinterpretation.

On my warmdown tonight, the girl I was talking to about this said that 110s were indeed very low. I said, "I mean this light jog we're doing now? This will be 110s." She looked at her watch. "145" she replied. I was amazed. It had been a really tough session but had ended 5 mins ago.

Elevation has nothing to do with any of this. His figures when he's at the low rate barely differ, up or down. In fact elevation just makes all this more damning.

The data pool for this, going back to August 2019, is now very large: 80 runs and 4,669kms. Goodness, I had not realised how many there were. For 11 of those runs he did not switch on the heart rate. Ok, so 69 runs, still a lot.

Let's now look at 4 randoms. How about runs ending in 8, but I invite you to test me by giving me random numbers between 1-80 to check.

So: day 8 at Jogle; 8th/48 marathon; 38th/48 marathon. And day 8 at Transcon.

Day 8 at Jogle, 25 August 2019, was to the naked eye an effective day's running. 72k in 11 hours. His highest K was just 123 with everything else under 120 or well under. Pretty shocking.

8th Marathon: this was at Sheffield on 8 Sept 2021 and was a swift 4:41 - a great time when you're doing 48 in 30 days. One might wonder, why such a rush?

Highest Hrs: 149 118 118

Lowest Hrs: 90 96 98

Mid point: 106.

Aside from the 1 harder K, the method is identical to two years earlier. Loads of low 6 Ks at 110. An obvious impossibility.

38th marathon: This was at Leicester on 25 Sept 2021 and is another really gnarly and grave irregularity for a 4:52 marathon.

To study the run is appalling. It's the second of the day, and the first half is reeled off in just 2:10, and the highest heart rate is just 118. Mainly his heart is at 110 for many Ks in the low-mid 5s. He then takes a 24 minute break and takes things a tad slower, perhaps because he realizes he shouldn't be too quick. He takes a very calculated 41 minutes for the last 2.2k, and a rather bizarre 18:15 for the last 200 yards. One can imagine the conversations with Balenger: "Can't arrive yet, it's way too soon."

Day 8 at Transcon. Fast forward another 18 months and the model is absolutely identical:

He finds some high heart rates up to 21K, but thereafter completely gives up the ghost for the last 60k. He NEVER touches 120bpm, and the pace is super, with dozens of 6 and 7 minute Ks in around 115. A 6:19k is returned in 113. To compare, earlier in the day he did a 6:21 at 148, and a 6:14 at 155. Absolutely what you would expect for him.

So there you go! 4 runs, nearly 4 years apart, and all identical in shape, form, method and completely and utterly implausible.

Goodge has done a long rant to camera, name-checking me and calling me a maggot, and has said he's absolutely loving all this. He states because of all this, we can forget about 64 days. He is going to go much, much quicker.

Thanks for listening. Will

So:

1) His heart rate has consistently inexplicably dropped down to the 110s for considerable distances, following periods where he has a far more ‘normal’ / expected heart rate

2) These drops have sometimes even coincided with an increase in speed, or - perhaps even more puzzlingly - such physical exhaustion that short distances suddenly took considerable amounts of time to cover

3) This has happened regularly across 4 years, different continents, and different hardware (it’s not a watch or GPS playing up)

4) All of this information is freely available online

Is this correct?

100% correct on all counts. He has even rotated his watch at Transcon; from a swish Garmin to a flashy Coros.

And his data, as far as I can see, and I've looked at a great deal of the 812 runs of his career, is blemish-free outside of these three events.

He has returned "clean" data in just 14 of the 80 runs from the three challenges. The first 2 at Jogle, the first 2 at Transcon, and 10 of the 48 marathons, of which two were big city races, one was the first, and then a flurry of 5:30 to 5:50s toward the end of the challenge when he had more observers. And just a couple elsewhere.

When he had clean data at the 48/30 he averaged 5:06, and for corrupt or non-existing data, he averaged 4:41.

All of this info is on his open Strava yes. Quite fun to pick a run at random and check it out. It's never dull, always astonishing. Jogle is August 2019, and the 48/30 is Sept 2021.

Thanks for the varied and thorough pop quiz. W

It is hard to root against someone with an interesting name like Goodge, so if this guy is up to something, I kind of hope he gets away with it.

Well that’s damning, to put it bluntly. But what’s the motive - for this run there’s a record on the line, but what about the others?

There’s also a question of how many people would need to be complicit, and why they’d agree to be so. They weren’t wrong when talking about this during the vlog: it’s a pretty hefty accusation against all of them, not least Will himself.

Have you any theories on what’s going on if they are cheating, particularly with the consistency of the HR drops - I saw somebody mention that there’s enough data to show that somebody is seemingly running, and not merely getting on a bike? Have you looked into overlap with running partners during these events, and the data of those individuals, and compared it to Goodge’s inconsistent times? Is there cadence data etc that you could compare?

And, on the flip side, do you have any theories on what could be going on which don’t involve cheating?