Femke Bol should run the 800m

It's the only way to find out. Her 500m is far better than her 200m so that is an indicator.

Jearl never ran sub-1:08 for 500m either.

Bol being better at the 500 than the 200 means that she wouldn't suck at the 800.

But "not sucking" is not the same as being "one of the best in the world" that some posters incorrectly imagine Bol could be.

Athing should give the 400H a try. Move over Syd and Femke

I'm not so sure that another 300m would destroy her. She was rolling through that finish with no one to push her. Keeping in mind that is 1:45 800 pace!

I would give her 1:57-58 off current fitness with potential for 1:53-4. But that is also what I give Mu and Keely. Mu v. Femke in 2024 for a 400/800 double would be epic to say the least (I realize it won't happen, just sayin')

Speaking of Mu, she just pulled out of the Millrose games 😐

I would like to see Brandon Johnson weigh in on this. He quit the
hurdles, took a year off track entirely, then came back in the 800:
2007 1:50.85
(mainly hurdles next few years, PR 48.59)
2010 off
2011 54.64 hurdles
2012 1:46.23
2013 1:43.84
So it took him two seasons to get the proper stamina, coming from low fitness.

No, she definitely shouldn’t move up to the 800 and speculating about 1:54 is just silly, but there’s also no reason to assume she couldn’t be pretty damn good at the event if she wanted to be.

Her 52.03 400h and 1:05.63 500 clearly show that the 400 is not the extreme upper limit of her range. Flirting with some mental gymnastics and statistical cherry picking here, but hear me out: her 65.63 = 1234 WA points, which is equivalent to 1:22.60 for 600. Do I think she could run that now? No, but I’d bet she could run under 1:24–it seems like someone running 52.50 pace for 500 could manage 55.99 pace for 600. Of the 11 women who have broken 1:24 for 600 indoors or out, Alysia Montano has the slowest 800 PR at 1:57.34.

Am I saying her 500 means she could run 1:57? Of course not, but I think it’s entirely possible she could run sub-2 this year and eventually run 1:57, which would put her within a shout of a global medal in the right year. Why would she do that when she probably has a better chance of running 48.x and 51.x? She wouldn’t, it would be stupid.

Guess what folks? We just found another crazy poster.

Athing said last year in an interview that she would like to try the 400h at some point. But I doubt that ever happens.

It’s only 300 more meters...

yeah also another 40 seconds of bathing in pure lactic acid which none of the hurdlers are equipped for.

the 800 is such a unique event in which it requires pure specialization to win. Its one thing to go and run an okay time. But 1:44.xx isn’t a great elite time considering the world record is 1:40.91. and Warholm is in no way getting anywhere close to 1:44.xx anyway. I got Bol for maybe a 2:01 at best on a good day with preparation. maybe if she dedicated her life to it, I’ll give her a 1:57 high.

Bol is absolutely a natural 800 meter runner and the idea that the event is too long for her is laughable. She can/would drop a 1:57 during her first season at it.

She's similar to Mu in that she doesn't have advanced sprint mechanics, and will never run elite 200 or 1500 meter times. She's a thin, lithe fast & steady runner with a long stride that eats up track. The rare 400/800 type.

Her 500 WR (all conditions btw) is very much indicative of 800 success. Look at her splits. Look at her effortless striding. Has anyone in this thread looked to see who has the men's 500 record? 🤔

How many 800 global medals did the previous women's 500 world record holder win?

Agree, her long and beautiful stride in the 500 tells me the 800 wouldn’t be a problem. A paler female version of David Rushida from the Netherlands.

As a coach and athlete of the 800m for over a quarter century, I took particular interest in her final 100, closed in about 14.0. Put her in a 600 right now against Keely or Mu, She would have to adjust her early pace a bit (going through 500 in 1:06-7), but with any drafting and/or being pushed to the line from competition, she is good for another 100 in under 17-ish seconds for sure for a 1:23. The next 200 is another discussion, but starting out at Athing's level for 600 is tremendous by any measure.

People forget easily how when Athing ran 1:23 in high school, and many were predicting 1:55-56 for her within the next year or two, naysayers pointed out that she hadn't even broken 2:00 yet (and she only ran 1:10 for 500m the following year by the way...put that in your pipe and smoke it). Yet fast forward two years to 2021 and all the skeptics had crow for breakfast, or more typically denied they had ever doubted her.

What an incredible position to have the possibility of being world class in FOUR Olympic events during your career, not even counting the 4x4 medals that await her and the Netherlands.

Basically. Everyone should not run the event they are already running from years of trial and error, while being coached by the best in the world.

I think she could train for the 800m and run well, but it doesn't make sense. The gap between the 400m and 800m is huge, part of why there are basically no 400m/800m doublers. She is top 2 in the world at her primary events. No need to switch when she probably would not be solid gold at the 800m distance.

Yes, Bol would be larger than the other 800 runners. I think that would surprise viewers at the outset. But I don't think she would relish all the jostling and instantaneous decision making that would vary wildly from race to race. That aspect is being totally overlooked. Bol is an extremely studious type who keeps dozens of notebooks in which she writes down everything, from sleeping schedule to eating plans to training schedule and advice from her coaches, etc. She immediately took to the 400 hurdles because it allowed her to have a specific plan and emphasis for each hurdle. She writes all of that down. She has said many times that if her coaches give her a time goal during increment training and she misses it by 1 tenth of a second, she gets really furious with herself.

I don't think any of that translates well to such a pinball event like the 800. Bol might have a specific plan and time goal, then get bounced around. It's like that Mike Tyson line. I think she senses all of this and wants no part of it. Also, Bol is extremely good friends with Keely Hodgkinson. They share the same agent. Bol already has experienced some awkwardness with Lieke Klaver, competing in the same events. They are still good friends but by all accounts not quite as close as a few years ago when they were new to the team and on almost an identical level. For example, Klaver and Bol used to compete against each other several times during indoor season. Now the coaches separate their schedules so they won't face each other until the national indoor 400 final.

There was an indication more than a year ago that Bol would fare well if she prioritized the 800. Her team was training in South Africa during December 2021. They devoted one day to 800 training. Bol posted about it on her Instagram. That post is linked below. Some of the comments were very interesting. Bol apparently fared very well.

Her training partner -- and Swiss sprinter -- Ajla Del Ponte commented, "Baby Giraffe did awesome today."

That is her nickname for Bol.

Bol's teammate Laura De Witte posted the same theme, "Killed it."

However, by far the most interesting exchange was when British 800 runner Guy Learmonth commented, "Coach is getting you ready for the two lapper sooner than later."

Bol replied, "But I'm not ready." She attached a tearful emoji to the end of the reply.

It sounded like the reply was serious. I think Bol believed the coaches were curious in that direction. I believe she pushed back against it. Every time the topic has come up subsequently she has held firm to no.

Somebody asked Bol what time she thought she could run in the 800 right then and there. Bol did not respond.

You have to scroll pretty far down to find those comments.

If we take these rare hurdlers with very good 800m marks as an parallel this would still not indicate world beating qualities in the case of Femke Bol. Men's 1:43-44 is more like women's 1:58 that is, a good chance for a final but (right now) slim chance for a medal.

I also think it's less likely for women as their 800m is more aerobic than the men's. IIRC the "break" (simplified, it's not sharp and sudden) when the aerobic endurance becomes far more relevant is around 70-80 secs, so that's why Bol is great in the 500 and probably still good in the 600 but might be far less impressive in the 800m.