Katelyn Tuohy Mile and 3000m Predictions

Mike miles back, sometimes it's ok to be conservative, it's January and these are the first fast track efforts. Henes rocks' 'slow' projections would both be Touhy prs, and locks to qualify for NCAA indoor.

Reasons Tuohy could be shockingly fast:

- the 4:06 1500 was a solo effort

- almost a year of uninterrupted training since then

- under raced and fresh

- fast track / fast supportive pro field

- facility she knows and likes

- home crowd, Armory will be shaking for these races

- Tuohy/Henes' quiet confidence, going back even to the fall, she must be running some strong workouts.

Reasons to be slow:

- these are 22/23 track openers (presumably they have not yet done any speedwork)

- poor pacing

- stuff happens

Race strategy:

Just follow the Monsoon. She just ran 4:26 in practice and she runs smart even paced races.

Remember just getting the NCAA qualifier is a necessary evil, so 4:32/8:50 are still satisfactory results. Have fun, these should be great races.

I like how you've suggested she'll go out in a comfortable 4:10. This race will go at whatever pace Alicia Monson dictates and Tuohy, McCabe, Vissa, Norris, and everyone else will try and hang out long enough to outkick Monson on the last lap. Monson is the class of the field, but probably doesn't have the best kick. She will control the race just like she did in the diamond league gradually cutting it down until most of the field breaks.

This is a tough style for Tuohy and McCabe to have to run, it is how Valby should have ran NCAA cross. The risk/reward for a fast time is high and if it works out it is definitely the type of race to be in for a record attempt if you can hang with Monson on the cut downs as long as possible and avoid a huge blow up if you hang on too long (probably more of a problem in the 3000m).

I did not make that suggestion. I would think Monson would want to be 2:10-12 at 800 and I would think Tuohy would be better off at 2:13-15 (I think she was 2:13 at ACC last Spring). I think most of the field would have problems if they are 2:10-12 at 800.

Well put. There are so many factors. It is a very wise policy to never assume that a record or near record time will happen. I tend to be conservative in my predictions. Anything around 4:30 or below would be terrific, but as long as she gets a qualifying time.

Yes you did make the suggestion she'd go out at 4:10.

My bad, too many Tuohy fans

Fasttuohy is correct.

You originally responded to FastTuohy, but FastTuohy did not make that suggestion, Tuohyfan did.

Does Tuohy need a qualifying time for mile? I would think either 5000/3000 or DMR/3000 but not mile? Mile/DMR is tough.

I am assuming she will do the 5000/3000 double but nothing wrong with options.

I would think Norris is the class of the field, as she is the Diamond League 1500 runner. Schlachtenhaufen also a 1500/mile vet, while Monson running off distance sharpener for Millrose.

Valby xc, not sure gradually cutting down the field was an option. As soon as she made a move at all, Tuohy let her go and the field stayed with Tuohy. ie.any time she would have gradually cut, the field would have let her go. If she remained in the pack, she still would have had to deal with a strong 1k close from Tuohy and Chmiel. Valby really ran an excellent race, even splits, handled cold and hills.

I agree with that. Norris, Schlactenhaufen and Vissa are all running the mile at millrose in two weeks .... against Laura Muir.

I made that suggestion :) *high-five*

Valby ran for home at the 2k mark, of course no one went with her. The NC State women had to ensure low sticks first. Knowing that and trying to gap them wasn't a terrible strategy, but it isn't something Valby will be able to use to succeed at least after the NCAA as her career progresses on the track. Valby should watch the 3000 in Lausane and hopefully the mile this weekend and see how Monson tries to handle racing against top 1500m runners like Norris and Helen S. She'll control the race and try and break them. The Citius Mag videos show the strategy, and it is probably her best chance at winning.

Tuohy should do all 4! But only go hard and for win in mile and dmr! The others she should just jog! It would be unprecedented and get her great press... And u never know she could slow down the 5 k to like 16 min pace and still get the win

Or NC state could use team tactics to slow down all distance events! She could also run the 800 in the dmr! But she will definitely do 5k, 3k, and mile... maybe skip dmr! If 5k and 3k are slow she could win all 3!

Valbys best and pretty much only chance is to wait for outdoor 10k

Cook and Valby will run fast. Roe will will run fast..

Agreed, she should also do some field events! She's a strong girl, throw the shotput and discus, 6 events would be plenty though don't let her overdo it.

It's very hard to run away from the field or frontrun a 1500/mile. This is often good for the overall times but very risky for the frontrunner and it works only if that runner is the best by some margin anyway (and male fields are usually too strong for it to work). Koko did this in the 2019 and 2020 Millrose Miles but it worked only in the former case for the win although the 2020 race would not have had 4 national records otherwise. (It worked also at 2019 DL Birmingham Mile race but there GDS was the only other serious contender.) Otherwise one has to be Hassan, Tsegay, Muir, Kipyegon in top shape to dare something like this.

If Monson can run the wheels off Norris etc. she must be in really tremendous shape. But in any case it would be a chance for good times for the college athletes a bit behind.