And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
Webb was not about as good in cross country. Webb got smashed by Ritzenhein by 20s. Sahlman’s NXN race probably would’ve beaten Ritz.
0 chance Ritz would have lost that race. Would have been an easy win for him.
Webb was not about as good in cross country. Webb got smashed by Ritzenhein by 20s. Sahlman’s NXN race probably would’ve beaten Ritz.
0 chance Ritz would have lost that race. Would have been an easy win for him.
Probably. But it doesn't matter. There is zero practical difference between being 1st or 2nd in the country. If L&L had good races and AS was 3rd in the same time, it wouldn't change his potential to run fast this spring.
AS was a beast in XC last year and about the same this year. We aren't talking about some guy who was running 15:30s last year. We are talking about a guy who was in 8:01 shape last year. We haven't seen anything to suggest he is in better shape. If he was, he would have won by 20+s...
he's had a far better training environment for the last several years than the record-holders, has already been in crazy fast, paced races unlike elites of prior eras
don't see any reason to expect a big breakthrough from him. there were 2 guys in his class better in the mile last year ...
Idk what you mean by past elites weren't in crazy fast paced races. Webb was behind El G and Lagat when he ran 3:53 in a 3:49 race. The record holder before him was Ryun who was going up against the reigning Olympic champ. Kessler ran 3:34 in a 3:33 race (and trained with Nick Willis). Maybe you mean Granville, but the fact that he soloed that makes me think it's a weaker record than the mile or 1500 records.
He has a good training environment, but Colin had the exact same training environment as Aaron for 3 years and still dropped from 4:04 to 3:56. There are 2 guys who were faster in the mile last year, but neither ran 1:48 and both got crushed by Aaron at NXN. We'll see what happens this year, but if I'm betting money on the fastest miler, I'm going with the XC champ with the fastest 800 pb of his class.
long legged creature06/15/2022 7:17pm EDT3 years ago
Simeon Birnbaum, a junior from South Dakota’s previous pr was 4:07 and he absolutely smashed it to go under 4 at Brooks PR. Zane Bergen and Devan Kipyego barely miss going under and Aaron Sahlman runs 4:01. Believe Kipyego an...
LRC Note on June 2, 2022. This thread was started at the end of his sophomore year with the title Connor MF Burns. We updated the title tonight after he ran a 3:58.83 at the HOKA Festival of Miles to become just the 2nd US HS...
If interested: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4fD1U4hS7sagF1KNEITZmv?si=hhsCMFcRQ76dEfPicOPcswCraziest part was hearing about a workout he did last week: 3x3x800: 2:12, 2:12, 2:06, 2:12, 2:12, 2:05, 2:12, 2:10, 2:04. High s...
Connor Burns joins the sub-4 HS club with a 3:58, and Gary Martin bettered his PR by a little bit by leading a pro race from 1k to 1400mCongrats to the both of them for being the first HSers to break 4 in the same race, and f...
And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
bruh none of the XC champs broke 1:47, but none of them came in having run 1:48. That's the whole reason why I asked if he could get the 800 and mile records. I'm not gonna say any random 1:48 junior can break the record, I'm gonna say the one who also beat the most stacked XC field ever can. I feel like it's not exactly a shot in the dark to say he's a better runner now than he was in March.
Colin ran 1:48.0 last year, and everyone seems to agree that Aaron has better leg speed. 2s is a big drop, but again, he seems like the perfect guy to do it.
And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
bruh none of the XC champs broke 1:47, but none of them came in having run 1:48. That's the whole reason why I asked if he could get the 800 and mile records. I'm not gonna say any random 1:48 junior can break the record, I'm gonna say the one who also beat the most stacked XC field ever can. I feel like it's not exactly a shot in the dark to say he's a better runner now than he was in March.
Colin ran 1:48.0 last year, and everyone seems to agree that Aaron has better leg speed. 2s is a big drop, but again, he seems like the perfect guy to do it.
2 sec drop would be awesome, will get him within about a half second of the record. Hopefully he won’t ever have to lead in that future race so he can get the same draft he got in his PR. He can do it!
he would need high 48 400m FAT to achieve the 800m record in my opinion which I don't think he has the leg speed for, so mile and 3200 would probably be his best bets.
And how many of those XC champs broke broken1:47? :). He was a stud in XC last year and ran 1:49. He is a stud this year. Has he improved enough to run faster? Maybe. But maybe not.
Guys like Webb were faster and about as good as XC. But he didn't get it. Now some of that is he didn't run the race. AS spent all last year running the 800m. He didn't dominate.
I hope he gets it. But again look at all the 148.9 runners who came back for their senior year and let me know how many dropped 1s let alone 2....
bruh none of the XC champs broke 1:47, but none of them came in having run 1:48. That's the whole reason why I asked if he could get the 800 and mile records. I'm not gonna say any random 1:48 junior can break the record, I'm gonna say the one who also beat the most stacked XC field ever can. I feel like it's not exactly a shot in the dark to say he's a better runner now than he was in March.
Colin ran 1:48.0 last year, and everyone seems to agree that Aaron has better leg speed. 2s is a big drop, but again, he seems like the perfect guy to do it.
It is a total guess if he is in better shape. We haven't seen any performance to suggest he is at a different fitness level than last year when he ran 8:01.
I think it is far more likely he turns into 1:48/355/755 guy than running 1:46. Aerobic strength doesn't matter as much as leg speed in the 800m. And let's be clear times like that would be nuts...
The perfect guy for the 800m is that sub 48s 400m guy with sub 4:10 mile strength. That is basically Webb🤣
I hope as much as anyone that he (and everyone else) keeps dropping times. I am just pointing out that historically few people do it...
Webb was not about as good in cross country. Webb got smashed by Ritzenhein by 20s. Sahlman’s NXN race probably would’ve beaten Ritz.
0 chance Ritz would have lost that race. Would have been an easy win for him.
We need to let go of the myth of Ritz is unbeatable. Lex Young already ran a faster 5k than Ritz ran in HS. Ritz literally focused his entire career in Gerry’s record.
This was easily the best HS field ever assembled for cross country.
6 dudes had mile PRs of 4:01 or better at juniors including 2 sub 4.
Good post :) sub 48 guy with sub-4 mile strength perfectly applies to Brazier too, he ran 47.96 and 4:07, but he didn't come particularly close. Brazier still managed the jump from 1:47 to 1:43 in a year though, and that's a far bigger jump than 1:48 to 1:46. Now that AS is focused specifically on the 800 from now till the end of the year, I think the odds of it falling are a bit higher than just any fast guy with sub-4:10 mile strength.
Good post :) sub 48 guy with sub-4 mile strength perfectly applies to Brazier too, he ran 47.96 and 4:07, but he didn't come particularly close. Brazier still managed the jump from 1:47 to 1:43 in a year though, and that's a far bigger jump than 1:48 to 1:46. Now that AS is focused specifically on the 800 from now till the end of the year, I think the odds of it falling are a bit higher than just any fast guy with sub-4:10 mile strength.
He focused on the 800m all last year. And he didn't really progress.
And yeah for whatever reason people seem to progress more freshman year than they do senior. I'm put it down to 1:49 not winning races and a step up in training and having people to push you. And a lot is that I only notice the guys that go from 149 to 145. The ones that run 148 sort of get overlooked.
We talk about AS being a 1:49 runner but wasn't that the only time he broke 1:50? He was a 1:51 guy in the other races . Running 1:48.5 3 or 4 times would be a solid improvement.
Granville like 1:51 as a freshman and just under 1:48 as a junior. He did run some really fast 400s(want to say like 46.5).
If you go back we have had a bunch of juniors who have run 1:48.5 800ms over the last 25 years. My impression is that few of those guys run faster senior year. I think it is hard for most of them to get in 1:46.x races.
But in the end guessing who keeps improving and who stagnated is impossible. I have no clue if he has legit sub 49 speed to have a future in the 800m. But spending a season trying to be a fast 800 guy isn't going to ruin his future if he is really a 1500/5000m(his 3k PR is solid) in a couple years...
Granville ran 47.x as a freshman (In the same race as Calvin Harrison's 45.25) and 46.15 as a senior (alongside a 21.0 200, apparently he was thinking about doubling in the 200 and 800 at states that year, but they f*cked up the timing at masters, which meant he would have had to run a solo time trial that weekend. He said nope, and went to states to just do the 800).
If you go back we have had a bunch of juniors who have run 1:48.5 800ms over the last 25 years. My impression is that few of those guys run faster senior year. I think it is hard for most of them to get in 1:46.x races.
Agreed. The 800 also seems like an event where people can show flashes of brilliance that they never show again in their high school careers. I remember there was that freshman than split 1:47.99 FAT on a 4x800 at NBON a few years back - never ended up getting anywhere close for the rest of high school.
I think last year the reason we saw two guys running under 1:47 was because they were just able to get into fast races. Flatt and sumner had racing opportunities, training, and technology some of the guys in the 80s and 90s would have only dreamed of.
I have no clue if he has legit sub 49 speed to have a future in the 800m.
I think he has good speed (I could see him going sub 49 this year) but he doesn't strike me as the type to have the kind of speed you need to be elite in the 800.
I just want to add that I'm surprised Alan Webb never went for the 800 record in high school. He definitely should have been able to get it - Guy was running 3:53 and 47 high, and he split 1:47.1 that year at nationals.
This is a fantastic breakdown of the type of runner Granville was vs Sahlman, 3rd place at CA state in 400 as a freshman. Insane speed! Flatt and Sumner were both closer to sprinter types and they're the ones who've came the closest recently. I think the Webb comparison is actually a lot closer to Sahlman because if not for the absolutely monster that Ritz was, Webb would've also been a national XC champ with great speed. The advantage Sahlman has over Webb is that he seems much more focused on the 800 record whereas Webb wanted sub 4.
800's 75% aerobic, 25% anaerobic, so the aerobic improvement is going to help a lot when he goes back down to 800m outdoors. I'm not going to predict he gets the 800m record, but he'll have a shot at 3:55 or better. However, the 800m record is just 53.2 pace. That doesn't require 48 second 400m speed. It requires good miler speed, which he has, and a lot of endurance.
0 chance Ritz would have lost that race. Would have been an easy win for him.
We need to let go of the myth of Ritz is unbeatable. Lex Young already ran a faster 5k than Ritz ran in HS. Ritz literally focused his entire career in Gerry’s record.
This was easily the best HS field ever assembled for cross country.
6 dudes had mile PRs of 4:01 or better at juniors including 2 sub 4.
Gorze ran 14:00 last year on the track.
I’m holding on to the idea that Ritz is and remains America’s best high school cross country runner. I will maintain this belief until another high schooler does better than he did at the world junior cross country championships.
800's 75% aerobic, 25% anaerobic, so the aerobic improvement is going to help a lot when he goes back down to 800m outdoors. I'm not going to predict he gets the 800m record, but he'll have a shot at 3:55 or better. However, the 800m record is just 53.2 pace. That doesn't require 48 second 400m speed. It requires good miler speed, which he has, and a lot of endurance.
Again what aerobic improvement? His Clovis time was slower, his state meet was a half dozen seconds faster. He was a 8:01 guy indoors last year. If he was in much better shape than last year, I would have expected him to be a lot more dominate in XC... If he had come in 3rd at nxn in the same time, would you be talking about his improvements?
And the 800 is 75/25 for woman. For guys running down around 1:50 is more like 60/40. There is a reason why elite 800m guys these days train more like sprinters than distance guys.
Again what aerobic improvement? His Clovis time was slower, his state meet was a half dozen seconds faster. He was a 8:01 guy indoors last year. If he was in much better shape than last year, I would have expected him to be a lot more dominate in XC... If he had come in 3rd at nxn in the same time, would you be talking about his improvements?
And the 800 is 75/25 for woman. For guys running down around 1:50 is more like 60/40. There is a reason why elite 800m guys these days train more like sprinters than distance guys.
Exactly. This kid got beat all season by the Youngins. Now people here are hyping him up as if he’s the high school GOAT just because he got lucky that his better teammates got sick before NXN. He’s a great runner, but the people hyping him up as the one to take down those longstanding records need to settle down.
0 chance Ritz would have lost that race. Would have been an easy win for him.
We need to let go of the myth of Ritz is unbeatable. Lex Young already ran a faster 5k than Ritz ran in HS. Ritz literally focused his entire career in Gerry’s record.
This was easily the best HS field ever assembled for cross country.
6 dudes had mile PRs of 4:01 or better at juniors including 2 sub 4.
Gorze ran 14:00 last year on the track.
You can’t compare times across eras. So much has improved to make times faster today, but that doesn’t necessarily make the athletes “better”.
In cross, Ritz is the goat. Put some respect on his name.
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