Katelyn Tuohy's 5000m ceiling looks like only 15:00s

I think Tuohy is old enough and good enough to mostly ignore what she ran at 15-16. Sure, one should keep in mind that she has been racing at a high level fo about 6 years already and considerable mileage under her belt. But other athletes go pro after college with 4:06 15:12 and achieve 4:02 sub 15 or better marks within two years.

I think people got carried away by unrealistic extrapolations from XC. Clearly, neither Valby nor Tuohy were in 14:40s shape 4 weeks ago. Maybe in 15:05 shape. But that doesn't mean they can improve towards sub 15 next year.

What? Valby did that on 2 weeks of running. That was the single best performance in the history of the NCAA.

She's coming off an undefeated season and hasn't lost a race since ACC's in May, she has two NCAA titles and is worn down--still ran 1 second off of her PR but we can certainly count on the Letsrun trolls to say she's done in spite of everything.

There's nothing a great woman can do--this site will still find a way to say she's burning out.

Interestingly though the entire NCst team did not, although Tuohy did lower her indoor 5000m time by 15 seconds. Almost like they may have peaked for that low profile XC event two weeks before. Lol.

I broke 15 only after running sub 4:10 for the full mile. I don't believe you can run sub 15 off a 4:06 1500.

Maybe not 14:40, but on that flat and twisty grass SEC course, how many seconds faster was Valby over Olemomoi? Something to consider; ‘Horses for courses.’

Elly Henes 2022: 4:27.7 mile pr, 14:52 5000 m pr

Why are you comparing yourself yo female distance athletes when you clearly are not one?

What is the mile time of Cranny, Shweizer?

You don't have to list the past top high school runners in the past 20 years. You just need to remember the outlier young phenom runners in recent years.

Mary Cain, Brie Oakley, Claudia Lane, Grace Ping, Taylor Ewert (Race walking/Distance). All these runners were fast in high school and have all broken many records when they were young just like Tuohy. One thing they have all have in common is how they were all very fast runners at such young age. One thing they have all in common except Tuohy is how they never really improved much after high school or after becoming young adults.

A good joke.

Like was said about you and data. Did you see how many school records were broken at the meet? We know that you focus on women's running and really only Tuohy. But larger data sets are what educated people use. And b the way, NC State broke the 3000 school record which is hard to do by not running a PR.

Please. You wouldn't know a fact if it dropped on you from orbit. Most of the top pros were very good in high school. Cranny was top three at NXN for example. Decker was really fast at 14, etc. And as much as I enjoy a good late bloomer story as much as the next person, we also know where those pro "late blooms" tend to come from. Tuohy is running faster in college than virtually every comparable top US pro did at her age. The only one really still ahead of her is Simpson and we will see what happens.

Valby was 28secs faster than Olemomoi at SEC. Plug Olemomoi’s 6k time on that course, and it returns a 15:34 equivalent for 5k. She just ran a 15:17 on an indoor track (i.e., 17sec faster on the track than what is predicted for a grass 5k.)

Plug Valby’s 18:25.9 SEC time into Daniels, and it returns a 15:10 equivalent 5k. Subtracting 17sec for the track-versus-the grass course comparison), gives 14:53.

You are correct. Young phenoms have about a 10% success rate. And 90% of elite Americans were very good young runners but were not phenoms. Giving all of the data to a mathematician who knows nothing about running, they would not predict Tuohy's upside to be anything great. But fanboys ignore facts and instead claim that Tuohy is the exception.

Sam Bush. 8:54 in 2021. 8:54 in 2022. Did get the school record regardless.

Valby, like Webb and Emma Abrahamson, were competitive swimmers from a young age.

Logic fail. What 'success rate' do young NON-phenoms have? If your measure of success is world-class, then non-phenoms are clearly at much lower than .1% nevermind 10%. Also -- this whole thread is just the raising of the bar. "She will never beat her high school prs. Runner XXXX will be better. Blah blah blah."

I don't like coffee. But yes.

No. The thread pertains to Tuohy and 15 flat 5000. So the bar is sort of sub 15, not world class.