Tuohy beat valby by 2 seconds at regionals and 2 seconds at NCAA 5k champ.... If she was really coming off a serious injury and improving it's funny that she didn't show any improvement in those two weeks!
Valby PR'd at champs by a 7 seconds in the 5k, so I am not sure what you mean by not showing improvement.
Believe it or not, regionals last week was actually the first race she has not had a PR in since last January. She PR'd in Jan in the 3000 and every race since.
But hey, according to a contingent here, 1st place is in the bag for a Tuohy that seems to always be able to run through injury, no problem. So maybe after-all there is something to the ‘magical unicorn’ that astro always, incessantly keeps bringing up, eh?
There is a difference between 'running through' and winning or running your best. Tuohy (like many runners) has run through injuries sure, but not at her best imho. If she IS injured my guess she will probably still run unless it is impossible to do so and then sit out most of indoors like last year.
Personally I don't think it is in the bag if she has a hamstring issue, especially on a hilly course. I hope that she and everyone else are healthy so they can give it their best.
Roe, Tyynismaa and Covert are all rumored to have been dealing with injuries as well.
I have the following teams in serious contention for the trophy:
New Mexico-NC State-OU
The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU. Now that is with New Mexico’s 1st two runners coming in around 6-8 and NC States’s 1st two coming in around X-4 or X-5. The point of this post is that the position of X (whether it flips from 1-3) has little affect on New Mexico’s overall score, but the position of X is going to greatly affect the overall score and final standing of NC State (because NM and NCState are so close.)
Therefore, if Tuohy tries to hang with the lead pack of Valby, Chelangat, Kemboi, McCabe, and Howell (and maybe some other fast runners I’m missing whose team is not in contention), she could easily flip 2-3 sticks, and the trophy goes to New Mexico.
Why don’t you list your projected pegs for New Mexico and for NC State to see if what I’m saying makes sense, FastT.
I agree with this
"The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU." [OSU I think!]
But I see different places (team points)
I have NC St with 2 in top 5, Bush 20-25, Seymour 30-35, and at least 1 of Rauber/Howlett/Mareno/Quarzo around 50 for ~110.
I have NM with 3 in 15-22 range, 1 around 25, 1 more around 30 for ~110 as well
I have OSU with 3 in top 15 (~20 total), but then 45-50 and 55-65 for ~130.
Close enough that anyone could win.
If NM gets someone in top 10 and rest of lineup performs the trophy is theirs. If OSU top 3 perform and their 4-5 can be 35 and 45 the trophy might be theirs. NC St needs the 2 top 5, next 2 right in the middle of NM scoring pack (20-25) and then someone to get in 45th.
NM is the one team that might be able to absorb a bad day by someone in top 5 as they have a 6th pretty close to their 5th (and 1-5 spread ~10).
I also have ND well clear of AL for 4th, but well behind OSU. This is with ALA's 5th scoring well over 100.
BYU with a healthy Hutchins and Annalee Weaver might have found the podium....but alas
Valby’s 5000m time at Champs was not much better (at all?) than her earlier 3000m PB.
And that 3000m PB was set a day after running a hard 1mile (PB) DMR anchor leg.
That's great but Tuohy had the big close for 2nd in 3000 the day after the big close for 2nd in 5000. Clearly these runners can handle back to back days.
Recall in FL Chelangat held off McCabe over last 500.
Well, I believe that’s because Chelangat smartly made a move past McCabe with 400m to go and didn’t wait until the end.
My guess Tuohy and Chelangat will not leave it to final hill to separate, and moves will start to be made at the start of the second loop or 4k-4.5k if the runners are still together
I have the following teams in serious contention for the trophy:
New Mexico-NC State-OU
The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU. Now that is with New Mexico’s 1st two runners coming in around 6-8 and NC States’s 1st two coming in around X-4 or X-5. The point of this post is that the position of X (whether it flips from 1-3) has little affect on New Mexico’s overall score, but the position of X is going to greatly affect the overall score and final standing of NC State (because NM and NCState are so close.)
Therefore, if Tuohy tries to hang with the lead pack of Valby, Chelangat, Kemboi, McCabe, and Howell (and maybe some other fast runners I’m missing whose team is not in contention), she could easily flip 2-3 sticks, and the trophy goes to New Mexico.
Why don’t you list your projected pegs for New Mexico and for NC State to see if what I’m saying makes sense, FastT.
I agree with this
"The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU." [OSU I think!]
And that 3000m PB was set a day after running a hard 1mile (PB) DMR anchor leg.
That's great but Tuohy had the big close for 2nd in 3000 the day after the big close for 2nd in 5000. Clearly these runners can handle back to back days.
But Valby probably didn’t have full fitness at the 5000m Champs, either (and was even unsure the state of her fitness.). Her coach told her to “stay with Tuohy”, but that meant running most of the race in the outside of lane 1 or in lane 2. She eventually realized that was not going to work, and made a last ditch effort to try and get separation, to no avail.
Tuohy beat valby by 2 seconds at regionals and 2 seconds at NCAA 5k champ.... If she was really coming off a serious injury and improving it's funny that she didn't show any improvement in those two weeks!
Valby PR'd at champs by a 7 seconds in the 5k, so I am not sure what you mean by not showing improvement.
Believe it or not, regionals last week was actually the first race she has not had a PR in since last January. She PR'd in Jan in the 3000 and every race since.
She didn't get any better compared to tuohy! It's not a hard thing to understand! Tuohy was 2 seconds faster than her at regionals and then two weeks later, she was still 2 seconds faster than her!
If she was really improving so much you would have expected maybe she lose by 10 seconds and then 2 weeks later she loses by 2 seconds that would have shown that she was actually improving week to week
It doesn't matter the time it matters how you do compared to other runners, cuz obviously runners run a little harder at a championship than at a qualifier!
Anyway people get caught up in the hype and they don't think rationally she's a good runner but she's not going to blow anyone away this year... and she's not off the charts compared to anyone else
Valby PR'd at champs by a 7 seconds in the 5k, so I am not sure what you mean by not showing improvement.
Believe it or not, regionals last week was actually the first race she has not had a PR in since last January. She PR'd in Jan in the 3000 and every race since.
She didn't get any better compared to tuohy! It's not a hard thing to understand! Tuohy was 2 seconds faster than her at regionals and then two weeks later, she was still 2 seconds faster than her!
If she was really improving so much you would have expected maybe she lose by 10 seconds and then 2 weeks later she loses by 2 seconds that would have shown that she was actually improving week to week
It doesn't matter the time it matters how you do compared to other runners, cuz obviously runners run a little harder at a championship than at a qualifier!
Anyway people get caught up in the hype and they don't think rationally she's a good runner but she's not going to blow anyone away this year... and she's not off the charts compared to anyone else
Why wouldn’t you expect Valby to have improved since Champs? She is only in the 5-6 year sweet spot of progression. Also, look at how her form is much cleaner/efficient than just last spring.
Well, I believe that’s because Chelangat smartly made a move past McCabe with 400m to go and didn’t wait until the end.
My guess Tuohy and Chelangat will not leave it to final hill to separate, and moves will start to be made at the start of the second loop or 4k-4.5k if the runners are still together
The hill @ 4.4k is what I’m actually referring to. That’s when the race will really start, I believe.
yeah, completely disagree....the front runners are going for the win. Valby will not put a large gap in-between herself and the other top runners that wont be closed by the last hill. The top runners are going for the win....they will NOT hold back in the fear they will not be able to keep pace.
I'm not saying Valby wont win, but if she does it won't because the other runners are holding back.
yeah, completely disagree....the front runners are going for the win. Valby will not put a large gap in-between herself and the other top runners that wont be closed by the last hill. The top runners are going for the win....they will NOT hold back in the fear they will not be able to keep pace.
I'm not saying Valby wont win, but if she does it won't because the other runners are holding back.
Well they’re certainly not going to pull a 2020-Orton.
She didn't get any better compared to tuohy! It's not a hard thing to understand! Tuohy was 2 seconds faster than her at regionals and then two weeks later, she was still 2 seconds faster than her!
If she was really improving so much you would have expected maybe she lose by 10 seconds and then 2 weeks later she loses by 2 seconds that would have shown that she was actually improving week to week
It doesn't matter the time it matters how you do compared to other runners, cuz obviously runners run a little harder at a championship than at a qualifier!
Anyway people get caught up in the hype and they don't think rationally she's a good runner but she's not going to blow anyone away this year... and she's not off the charts compared to anyone else
Why wouldn’t you expect Valby to have improved since Champs? She is only in the 5-6 year sweet spot of progression. Also, look at how her form is much cleaner/efficient than just last spring.
Why would you think Valby would improve but not the other athletes? Again, I am not saying Valby won't win...but my pick is still Tuohy.
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