…and ranked 13th nationally. Not so sure that they are really weaker than Colorado, NC State and Villanova.
National ranking doesn't mean anything if you can't qualify. They are going to need to get pushed in by another team in their region because they haven't raced anyone.
…and ranked 13th nationally. Not so sure that they are really weaker than Colorado, NC State and Villanova.
National ranking doesn't mean anything if you can't qualify. They are going to need to get pushed in by another team in their region because they haven't raced anyone.
Virginia is crazy deep. They have 12 sub 24:17 guys. 20s spread between #7 and #12. The weaker guys are all improving a lot.
it will be thought to select their top 9 for ACC. #8 to #12 are all pretty equal, improving fast and are all quite decent.
The “problem” (for now) is that they don’t have a low stick. 5 sub 23:37 is very good however. Their #5 in the last race was Wes Porter (13:36 guy). Their #4 was Will Anthony, a freshman from NZ (seems to have adapted quite well). Their #3 was Gary Martin (no introduction necessary other than he really improved from his first outing). #2 is Asfaw, who has run 28:53. Their #1 was Wachtel who seems to have had a crazy improvement (23:20).
That is a strong team, with a lot of fire power from #6 to #12. They unfortunately don’t have a 13:20 guy.
ACC will be quite interesting. I predict a close battle between ND, WF, Virginia and NC State. It’s not obvious who the winner will be.
UVA also had 9 frosh-soph at 24:14 or better, so the future is bright. Gary Martin was also one of at least three UVA frosh with faster times than Colin Sahlman at Nuttycombe, an interesting touch given their rivalry at the mile and 800m in high school this past season, but Martin's own improvement this season in xc should also remind us that Sahlman will get a lot better as the season goes on.
They also beat Ole Miss who is ranked 3rd in the South region (they may qualify)
Nope. Ole Miss and Florida State are really bad this year. Tennessee and Alabama will grab the auto spots from the South region and there will be no at-larges. Ole Miss and Florida State have not beaten anyone this year. At-larges this year seem to be spread across the West, Mountain, and Southeast regions based on Nuttycombe performances. No I don't have a Kolas calculator, but its pretty easy math so far with only 2 weekends of big meets.
They also beat Ole Miss who is ranked 3rd in the South region (they may qualify)
Nope. Ole Miss and Florida State are really bad this year. Tennessee and Alabama will grab the auto spots from the South region and there will be no at-larges. Ole Miss and Florida State have not beaten anyone this year. At-larges this year seem to be spread across the West, Mountain, and Southeast regions based on Nuttycombe performances. No I don't have a Kolas calculator, but its pretty easy math so far with only 2 weekends of big meets.
UVA's only chance is if one team chokes at regionals and pushes UVA in.
They are also fortunate to be hosting ACC's with an advantage on their home course.
Nope. Ole Miss and Florida State are really bad this year. Tennessee and Alabama will grab the auto spots from the South region and there will be no at-larges. Ole Miss and Florida State have not beaten anyone this year. At-larges this year seem to be spread across the West, Mountain, and Southeast regions based on Nuttycombe performances. No I don't have a Kolas calculator, but its pretty easy math so far with only 2 weekends of big meets.
UVA's only chance is if one team chokes at regionals and pushes UVA in.
They are also fortunate to be hosting ACC's with an advantage on their home course.
UVA does have a BIG opportunity to pick up much needed points at ACCs. If they can beat Syracuse, NC State, and UNC, I think there is a chance for them to squeeze in even if they finish 4th at regionals (I know it's not a huge difference, but there are 32 teams going this year rather than 31). UVA is young, but very talented. I think they perform much better over 8k at home for ACCs than over 10k in Louisville. Just a hunch... As of today (which is only halfway through the Kolas season), there is a plausible scenario in which Wake, UNC, Virginia and NC State get into nationals (Over the last 10 years, the Southeast region has sent 4 teams 7 times). Based on Nuttycombe, they would have to finish in that order. There really is no scenario in which Ole Miss get in. They would have to beat Tennessee or Alabama at regional or beat both of them at SECs and hope top 25 teams run VERY poorly at their regionals. As it stands today, with the points they picked up at Joe Piane, Vanhoy at Cal Poly has a better shot at sliding in if they finish 5th in the West.
UVA's only chance is if one team chokes at regionals and pushes UVA in.
They are also fortunate to be hosting ACC's with an advantage on their home course.
UVA does have a BIG opportunity to pick up much needed points at ACCs. If they can beat Syracuse, NC State, and UNC, I think there is a chance for them to squeeze in even if they finish 4th at regionals (I know it's not a huge difference, but there are 32 teams going this year rather than 31). UVA is young, but very talented. I think they perform much better over 8k at home for ACCs than over 10k in Louisville. Just a hunch... As of today (which is only halfway through the Kolas season), there is a plausible scenario in which Wake, UNC, Virginia and NC State get into nationals (Over the last 10 years, the Southeast region has sent 4 teams 7 times). Based on Nuttycombe, they would have to finish in that order. There really is no scenario in which Ole Miss get in. They would have to beat Tennessee or Alabama at regional or beat both of them at SECs and hope top 25 teams run VERY poorly at their regionals. As it stands today, with the points they picked up at Joe Piane, Vanhoy at Cal Poly has a better shot at sliding in if they finish 5th in the West.
Beating WF and Notre Dame is also not completely out of the question. Had their #2 to #5 (who ran as a pack) had gone 3s faster, they would have beaten WF at Panorama.
UVA's only chance is if one team chokes at regionals and pushes UVA in.
They are also fortunate to be hosting ACC's with an advantage on their home course.
UVA does have a BIG opportunity to pick up much needed points at ACCs. If they can beat Syracuse, NC State, and UNC, I think there is a chance for them to squeeze in even if they finish 4th at regionals (I know it's not a huge difference, but there are 32 teams going this year rather than 31). UVA is young, but very talented. I think they perform much better over 8k at home for ACCs than over 10k in Louisville. Just a hunch... As of today (which is only halfway through the Kolas season), there is a plausible scenario in which Wake, UNC, Virginia and NC State get into nationals (Over the last 10 years, the Southeast region has sent 4 teams 7 times). Based on Nuttycombe, they would have to finish in that order. There really is no scenario in which Ole Miss get in. They would have to beat Tennessee or Alabama at regional or beat both of them at SECs and hope top 25 teams run VERY poorly at their regionals. As it stands today, with the points they picked up at Joe Piane, Vanhoy at Cal Poly has a better shot at sliding in if they finish 5th in the West.
Very accurate assessment. NC state might have saved UVA by overperforming at Nuttycombe and picking up points. If it weren't for that, UVA would 100% have to place top 2 in the region which is difficult for a young team running 10k.
UVA does have a BIG opportunity to pick up much needed points at ACCs. If they can beat Syracuse, NC State, and UNC, I think there is a chance for them to squeeze in even if they finish 4th at regionals (I know it's not a huge difference, but there are 32 teams going this year rather than 31). UVA is young, but very talented. I think they perform much better over 8k at home for ACCs than over 10k in Louisville. Just a hunch... As of today (which is only halfway through the Kolas season), there is a plausible scenario in which Wake, UNC, Virginia and NC State get into nationals (Over the last 10 years, the Southeast region has sent 4 teams 7 times). Based on Nuttycombe, they would have to finish in that order. There really is no scenario in which Ole Miss get in. They would have to beat Tennessee or Alabama at regional or beat both of them at SECs and hope top 25 teams run VERY poorly at their regionals. As it stands today, with the points they picked up at Joe Piane, Vanhoy at Cal Poly has a better shot at sliding in if they finish 5th in the West.
Very accurate assessment. NC state might have saved UVA by overperforming at Nuttycombe and picking up points. If it weren't for that, UVA would 100% have to place top 2 in the region which is difficult for a young team running 10k.
I'm not sure NC State "overperformed" at Nuttycombe. I think they underperformed actually. UNC, Syracuse, Michigan, Harvard, etc. ran like s%&, which allowed NC State to finish 10th. In fact, if you look deeply at their roster, NC State had an average day. Shanklin is a top 30 Nuttycombe performer...he's run 13:23 and was 54th at last year's NCAA XC championships. Hannes Berger appeared to have been top 10 in the B race before dropping out sometime after the 6k mark (clearly something is up with Berger given 1) he wasn't in the A race and 2) he dropped). Antzcak, who is a FL finalist, clearly didn't have a great race either. The thing about the Nuttycombe results however is that in 10th, NC State was 40 points out of 9th and 140 points out of 8th. So, even if everyone runs out of their a^&, the best they get is 9th. On the other side of that coin, if everyone is having a dayTh, they separate themselves further from UNC and Syracuse. NC State has been to nationals 7 of the last 10 years, most recently in 2020 (there are a few guys on this roster that have run at nationals).
I think Virginia is better than we are giving them credit for. Nothing is out of the question, but the reality is Notre Dame could be better and Wake is relatively untested in a big meet scenario. Again, UVA is young and inexperienced in big meets and over 10k (the last time UVA went to nationals, the majority of their roster was in 8th-10th grade). They clearly run as a pack, which is great, but in a big meet like regionals, if that pack is back a bit, it can be costly. It will be fun to see how the younger athletes like Wachtel and Martin do in a big championship setting. Porter, Asfaw, and Sado have some big meet experience. Again, though, on the right day, a team like Wake or UNC could have 3-4 in before the UVA pack. But if they lean on the more experienced runners, UVA could surprise and finish top 2 at ACCs.
UNC is interesting. Man they can flash. So much talent on that roster. Parker Wolfe is an animal and could absolutely win the ACC title. The other guys have been inconsistent this year. Tatter, Strand, and Anderson have the potential to be top 15-20 at ACCs. Where the heck is Judson Greer??...haven't seen him race since HS. And I thought Connor Lane would bring some depth for sure, but he's been absent for the most part. I'm sure UNC will figure it out and put it together at ACCs. If things don't go well there, I can't see them magically making it happen over 10k at regionals. The positive is the bulk of the roster ran at the NCAA championships last year and has that experience to lean on.
Notre Dame is extremely solid. Berry has been a bright spot as a transfer. Solomon and Stuery have been consistently REALLY good. If Carmody and Renfree get back to 2020 type performances, this lineup could be very dangerous (imagine if they still had Jacobs). Aside from Stuery, the majority of this roster has NCAA championship experience. Having Methner back has shored up this lineup and they look like a top 10 team at nationals should things go their way. Watching ND and Wake go at it at ACCs will be fun!
Very accurate assessment. NC state might have saved UVA by overperforming at Nuttycombe and picking up points. If it weren't for that, UVA would 100% have to place top 2 in the region which is difficult for a young team running 10k.
I'm not sure NC State "overperformed" at Nuttycombe. I think they underperformed actually. UNC, Syracuse, Michigan, Harvard, etc. ran like s%&, which allowed NC State to finish 10th. In fact, if you look deeply at their roster, NC State had an average day. Shanklin is a top 30 Nuttycombe performer...he's run 13:23 and was 54th at last year's NCAA XC championships. Hannes Berger appeared to have been top 10 in the B race before dropping out sometime after the 6k mark (clearly something is up with Berger given 1) he wasn't in the A race and 2) he dropped). Antzcak, who is a FL finalist, clearly didn't have a great race either. The thing about the Nuttycombe results however is that in 10th, NC State was 40 points out of 9th and 140 points out of 8th. So, even if everyone runs out of their a^&, the best they get is 9th. On the other side of that coin, if everyone is having a dayTh, they separate themselves further from UNC and Syracuse. NC State has been to nationals 7 of the last 10 years, most recently in 2020 (there are a few guys on this roster that have run at nationals).
I think Virginia is better than we are giving them credit for. Nothing is out of the question, but the reality is Notre Dame could be better and Wake is relatively untested in a big meet scenario. Again, UVA is young and inexperienced in big meets and over 10k (the last time UVA went to nationals, the majority of their roster was in 8th-10th grade). They clearly run as a pack, which is great, but in a big meet like regionals, if that pack is back a bit, it can be costly. It will be fun to see how the younger athletes like Wachtel and Martin do in a big championship setting. Porter, Asfaw, and Sado have some big meet experience. Again, though, on the right day, a team like Wake or UNC could have 3-4 in before the UVA pack. But if they lean on the more experienced runners, UVA could surprise and finish top 2 at ACCs.
UNC is interesting. Man they can flash. So much talent on that roster. Parker Wolfe is an animal and could absolutely win the ACC title. The other guys have been inconsistent this year. Tatter, Strand, and Anderson have the potential to be top 15-20 at ACCs. Where the heck is Judson Greer??...haven't seen him race since HS. And I thought Connor Lane would bring some depth for sure, but he's been absent for the most part. I'm sure UNC will figure it out and put it together at ACCs. If things don't go well there, I can't see them magically making it happen over 10k at regionals. The positive is the bulk of the roster ran at the NCAA championships last year and has that experience to lean on.
Notre Dame is extremely solid. Berry has been a bright spot as a transfer. Solomon and Stuery have been consistently REALLY good. If Carmody and Renfree get back to 2020 type performances, this lineup could be very dangerous (imagine if they still had Jacobs). Aside from Stuery, the majority of this roster has NCAA championship experience. Having Methner back has shored up this lineup and they look like a top 10 team at nationals should things go their way. Watching ND and Wake go at it at ACCs will be fun!
Don’t forget about Will Anthony. He was running 8:04 in HS last year. Pretty much on par with Gary Martin (with less speed). So I am not surprised that he is running with Martin.
I had never heard of this guy. But of course Lanana had!!!
The OP was right on when he was predicting an upward trend for Virginia which may lead them to a top 10 at NCAA. is OP the same guy who predicted Fisher’s time?
Very accurate assessment. NC state might have saved UVA by overperforming at Nuttycombe and picking up points. If it weren't for that, UVA would 100% have to place top 2 in the region which is difficult for a young team running 10k.
I'm not sure NC State "overperformed" at Nuttycombe. I think they underperformed actually. UNC, Syracuse, Michigan, Harvard, etc. ran like s%&, which allowed NC State to finish 10th. In fact, if you look deeply at their roster, NC State had an average day. Shanklin is a top 30 Nuttycombe performer...he's run 13:23 and was 54th at last year's NCAA XC championships. Hannes Berger appeared to have been top 10 in the B race before dropping out sometime after the 6k mark (clearly something is up with Berger given 1) he wasn't in the A race and 2) he dropped). Antzcak, who is a FL finalist, clearly didn't have a great race either. The thing about the Nuttycombe results however is that in 10th, NC State was 40 points out of 9th and 140 points out of 8th. So, even if everyone runs out of their a^&, the best they get is 9th. On the other side of that coin, if everyone is having a dayTh, they separate themselves further from UNC and Syracuse. NC State has been to nationals 7 of the last 10 years, most recently in 2020 (there are a few guys on this roster that have run at nationals).
Pretty fair assessment of NC State. They also ran without David Vorbach who was their #4 at Joe Piane and likely would have been an improvement as the #5 ahead of McGoey.
I'll be interested to watch them at regionals. Brett Gardner has been a very pleasant surprise for them this year with his improvement but he is an unknown for the 10k distance which could be an issue for them at regionals, but at least he has Ian Harrison and Robinson Snider to help pace off of.
Will Anthony is from New Zealand. People that pay attention had heard of him.
For sure people from NZ and Australia had heard about him. However, can you lead me to one thread that talks about him (from someone who pays attention)?
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