Jakob can run a Half probably sub 58 like The best in the world can. Grant I'd imagine will run 1:01 to 1:02.
Jakob could not run sub 58. Only a few guys have ever gone sub 58. We're talking about a 1500-5k guy, who could probably still hold his own in a 10k but wouldn't be the worlds best at 10k, and then yet another jump to half marathon. I believe in his one and only half marathon attempt a couple years ago he did not finish. And his road 10k is upper 27's, there are other true half marathon guys who run 27 flat and under on the roads. He isn't on their level for the roads or 10k. And how in the wJakob wins.orld do you say Grant would only be 61/62? A recent example to model off of is Conner Mantz who is a roughly 27:30 10,000 runner who ran sub 60:50 ish at the USATF half marathon championships. Grant is easily 30 seconds faster than him, closer to a minute. So I'd say Grant is a lock at 60:15, probably more like 59:30-59:45. People saying he'd be in the 58's are crazy, he is training like a 5k/10k guy and just barely competitive with the top runners there, he isn't going to also be competitive amongst the top runners at half marathon right now. You could argue that the best runners in the world aren't even on the track since they make more runners on the road, Cheptegei is 10,000 world champion and gets his butt handed to him on the roads. Cheptegei only ran low 59 for the half marathon two years ago the same year he ran 26:11 on the track.
Pretty sure everyone said he would not win the 5000m also and he did. If Grant can run 58's Jakob can run 57's. Jakob is better plain and simple even at a 10,000m's if he chooses to run it.
Jakob could not run sub 58. Only a few guys have ever gone sub 58. We're talking about a 1500-5k guy, who could probably still hold his own in a 10k but wouldn't be the worlds best at 10k, and then yet another jump to half marathon. I believe in his one and only half marathon attempt a couple years ago he did not finish. And his road 10k is upper 27's, there are other true half marathon guys who run 27 flat and under on the roads. He isn't on their level for the roads or 10k. And how in the wJakob wins.orld do you say Grant would only be 61/62? A recent example to model off of is Conner Mantz who is a roughly 27:30 10,000 runner who ran sub 60:50 ish at the USATF half marathon championships. Grant is easily 30 seconds faster than him, closer to a minute. So I'd say Grant is a lock at 60:15, probably more like 59:30-59:45. People saying he'd be in the 58's are crazy, he is training like a 5k/10k guy and just barely competitive with the top runners there, he isn't going to also be competitive amongst the top runners at half marathon right now. You could argue that the best runners in the world aren't even on the track since they make more runners on the road, Cheptegei is 10,000 world champion and gets his butt handed to him on the roads. Cheptegei only ran low 59 for the half marathon two years ago the same year he ran 26:11 on the track.
Pretty sure everyone said he would not win the 5000m also and he did. If Grant can run 58's Jakob can run 57's. Jakob is better plain and simple even at a 10,000m's if he chooses to run it.
Jakob is a 1500/5000m runner and I couldn’t find any results for him that indicate he would as fast as Fisher in the HM.
Right now? I think he would run right around 60:30 due to lack of specificity training. He should be able to take down Hall's AR with some specific training. I am not so sure he can get down to low 58s or sub 58. The E. Africans do dedicate a fair number of runners to doing just 1/2s because the money is good and they can run a lot of races. So, they do a ton of 1/2 specific training and are ready to run very fast whenever they race.
I agree that if GF goes all in on the half, the AR is his for the taking, but as for racing this weekend, I'd put Fisher at 61-low, Mantz--a better racer the longer the distance--at 60:30, the Norwegian & Chep around 59-mid. Barega? Who knows? Kiplimo smokes them all.
Nobody who runs 4:17 mile pace for 10k only manages 4:40 pace for the half. Nobody who comes within inches of beating Kiplimo at 10k is only running 61-low for the half. The top-8 from the WC 10k (probably more) are all running sub-60 if they want to. Heck, 8th placer Daniel Mateiko has a 58:26 PR.
Fisher would beat Mantz at the half—he’s much, much better at the 10k and the 10k and half aren’t so disparate events, particularly at the elite level. It’s not like Fisher is only running 50 or 70 mpw. Ingebrigtsen could well be good for 59-mid, who knows, but what makes you think he’d beat Fisher by ~500 meters at that distance? Cheptegei “only” has a 59:21 PR, but I think that was a decidedly subpar race for him and he’s run 41:05 for 15k back in 2018. I’m pretty confident he could run 58-mid, maybe better on his best days.
I believe Fisher could run somewhere between 58:30 and 59:30. I realize that’s a pretty big range, but I’m still getting adjusted to a world where 57:31 is the WR, a relative no name (Alexander Mutiso) has run 57:59, 40 men have run sub-59, and 108 men have clocked 59:30 or better.
SDSU Aztec wrote: Jakob is a 1500/5000m runner and I couldn’t find any results for him that indicate he would as fast as Fisher in the HM.
Jakob is great in cross country too. He has range well beyond 1500/5000. He's not like, say, Nick Symmonds who couldn't run a 5k if his life depended on it, or Athing Mu who couldn't run a mile if her life depended on it. Jakob is the four-time U20 European cross country champ and won the senior race (10k) only a few months ago. That is amazing range the Olympic 1500m champ.
SDSU Aztec wrote: Jakob is a 1500/5000m runner and I couldn’t find any results for him that indicate he would as fast as Fisher in the HM.
Jakob is great in cross country too. He has range well beyond 1500/5000. He's not like, say, Nick Symmonds who couldn't run a 5k if his life depended on it, or Athing Mu who couldn't run a mile if her life depended on it. Jakob is the four-time U20 European cross country champ and won the senior race (10k) only a few months ago. That is amazing range the Olympic 1500m champ.
I don’t think European XC is anywhere near as competitive as World XC. The next two guys he beat in the senior race were 27:40-50 runners. That’d hardly proof that he could beat a 26:33 guy over an HM.
SDSU Aztec wrote: I don’t think European XC is anywhere near as competitive as World XC. The next two guys he beat in the senior race were 27:40-50 runners. That’d hardly proof that he could beat a 26:33 guy over an HM.
You "couldn't find any results." I showed you results that Jakob has solid range well beyond 1500/5000, unlike most world class 1500m runners. Too bad no world cross this year. Hopefully Jakob and Grant run it next year in Australia.
SDSU Aztec wrote: I don’t think European XC is anywhere near as competitive as World XC. The next two guys he beat in the senior race were 27:40-50 runners. That’d hardly proof that he could beat a 26:33 guy over an HM.
You "couldn't find any results." I showed you results that Jakob has solid range well beyond 1500/5000, unlike most world class 1500m runners. Too bad no world cross this year. Hopefully Jakob and Grant run it next year in Australia.
Having more range than most 1500m runners is in no way an indication that he could beat Fisher in an HM. Maybe he can be as fast in the HM as you think he could, but it’s pure speculation at this point and we have no idea how fast he could run a 10000m. If he ran a 26:33, he would be climbing a steeper curve from his 1500/5000m abilities than Fisher and would be at a disadvantage.
Zero chance Fisher runs World XC in Australia next year but don’t know about Jakob.
Having more range than most 1500m runners is in no way an indication that he could beat Fisher in an HM. Maybe he can be as fast in the HM as you think he could, but it’s pure speculation at this point and we have no idea how fast he could run a 10000m. If he ran a 26:33, he would be climbing a steeper curve from his 1500/5000m abilities than Fisher and would be at a disadvantage.
Zero chance Fisher runs World XC in Australia next year but don’t know about Jakob.
Having more range than most 1500m runners is in no way an indication that he could beat Fisher in an HM. Maybe he can be as fast in the HM as you think he could, but it’s pure speculation at this point and we have no idea how fast he could run a 10000m. If he ran a 26:33, he would be climbing a steeper curve from his 1500/5000m abilities than Fisher and would be at a disadvantage.
Zero chance Fisher runs World XC in Australia next year but don’t know about Jakob.
I always enjoy these theoretical match ups…..
How about Jakob v Kipchoge at 10000?
Fisher v Kipchoge at the 1/2?
As far as I know, Kipchoge hasn’t raced anything shorter than the marathon for years. Some posters believe that he’s trained so effectively for the marathon that he’s doing what he does now even though he can no longer break 27:00. I believe he has the same correlations to the 10000/HM as other elite marathoners and would win both of your matchups.
I've blogged about this at length on here - Rupp never went for it. His only half-marathons were sit-and-kicks or marathon tuneups.
Even his sub 60 was a jetlagged tuneup.
His 2020 time trial was a legit effort, but he no longer has the legspeed to break the American record.
Now with that said, Ryan Hall's American record was also sort of a jetlagged tuneup. Not saying Rupp was better. But Rupp HAD a window where he had the footspeed (and the supershoes) to break the American record but he never went for it.
Wasn't Rupp's sub-60:00 on a non record eligible course? I think I remember it being point to point or downhill or both?
Correct. It doesn't count. But it was also just a jetlagged tuneup. It was really a vacation so his family and Albert's family could visit the Vatican City.
He's in championship shape. Put him on a flat, fast course, with a decent weather and good competition. Surely he could go well under 60. Perhaps he could even go under 59. Running 28 flat 10k pace = 59:10 for perspective. Added bonus, there are no rails to trip on in road racing.
I would be very surprised if he would dip much under 1hr without some specific half-marathon training. The 10km translates fairly well to a fast half marathon but not completely- it's still over twice the distance. The fastest ever debut for the half is currently held by Leonard Komon of 59:14 and that was after he trained for it. My thoughts are probably around 1:00:30ish
Ridiculous comment tbh. Rupp ran some HMs during Marathon training and well past his peak age. Never attempted one during his peak 10,000m shape, he absolutely could have broken the AR in the Half if he cared, but its a niche event.
And Fisher would break 60 no doubt and would go sub 59 with some specific training. The HM American record is incredibly weak, especially in the age of road super shoes. Almost 2.5 minutes behind the WR.
There's your correct answer, although a guy specifically trained for a track 10k won't just jump in and crush a 13 mile road race. However, with the aid of super shoes (let's say just 3% benefit and that's conservative), he's looking at another 90+ seconds cut just from the equipment. Sub 60 easily with the shoes.
I don't care about speculating about a theoretical half marathon. What I want to see is Fisher giving the World Cross Country Championships a go. He is a really good cross country runner. Yes, he was only 2nd at NCAA, but he is a much better runner now than he was then - and the distance is now 10k and not 12k. Can Fisher beat Mantz in a half marathon? I don't care. I want to see Fisher and Mantz running on the same cross country team for World Cross. With the Bor brothers, we might have a shot at a podium (for the first time since the cold and mud in Poland - True 6th and Derrick 9th).
I don't care about speculating about a theoretical half marathon. What I want to see is Fisher giving the World Cross Country Championships a go. He is a really good cross country runner. Yes, he was only 2nd at NCAA, but he is a much better runner now than he was then - and the distance is now 10k and not 12k. Can Fisher beat Mantz in a half marathon? I don't care. I want to see Fisher and Mantz running on the same cross country team for World Cross. With the Bor brothers, we might have a shot at a podium (for the first time since the cold and mud in Poland - True 6th and Derrick 9th).
The best U.S. distance runners just don’t run World XC. Neither Rupp, or Ritz (senior division), ever did and without going over the results, I believe the last elite Americans to give it a go were Kennedy and Williams back in the ‘90s.
He needs to get his ass over to Europe for some real races is what he needs to do. Experiment with, say, NOT running 3 inches from the rail.
Wow! What a great suggestion, I'm sure nobody has thought of going to Europe to run in some fast races as well as collect some appearance fees.
And for the rail comment...really? It's called "racing", and sometimes you don't always find yourself in the "Perfect" position. Grant ran a great race, live and learn and move on. Not a big deal.
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