Jakob will win the 1500 in a cakewalk. Easy money for him. The 5000 will be a beast. Maybe the best field in the event’s history will be assembled in Eugene? Ten or more men under 12:50, the world record holder, multiple global medal winners. All of them with a reasonable shot at winning. Jakob will more than have his hands full and if he pulls off this double, it will be an epic achievement.
Yes, he should be able to run a 3:45 in similar conditions. How come all those faster than 3:46 never landed on 3:45?
If there was a big $1 million jackpot to break the WR, it would happen within a couple years
The mile has rarely been in a marquee spot I’d say? Oslo is the best option (Pre too early/windy), but guys go for their fastest times generally at Monaco and the Oslo field generally is good not great.
Hoare looked strangely unhappy with his 3:47. If it's cause he wants to beat Jakob, that's a good thing
Yes, listen to his Coffee Club podcast. He was confident about trying to beat him in oslo by putting him under pressure as he felt no one has been doing that recently
Great run for Jakob; we were all hoping for a bit quicker but it's a strong effort from the front without ideal conditions.
But is Hoare unhappy? What he did today was easily the best performance of his career, and he was able to sit in Jakob's draft for a full 1,500 before he dropped the last 100ish. He set a continental record and ran about a 3:30 equivalent. And he only lost to the Olympic champ by one second. Spectacular performance I didn't quite see coming.
Not sure where he got the idea he is capable of beating Jakob, though. I guess we'll see at World's!
Most of the rest of the world rarely runs the mile. But sticking with the mile, that's 3.33 seconds slower than El G. Plus 5 seconds for the super shoes, so he's 8.33 seconds slower than EL G. Converting back to metric, 3:26.0 + 8.33 seconds would be 3:34.33 for 1500 meters.
Man I wish dragonfly’s would grant me a 5 second mile PR. Too bad they don’t.
Just want to point out that Jakob's classic awkward distance runner start alone (right foot forward, gun shoots, shuffle feet, then start) cost him nearly a tenth. Blows my mind how so many runners refuses to focus on the marginal gains in a proper start and first 150 meters according to energy systems.
For those born the past 30 years or so, it’s common knowledge that ElGuerrouj was most likely hitting the EPO pretty hard during his world record runs. Same with Ngeny, Komen, etc. All just about the time Miguel Indurain was doing his 510 W for an hour on the bike.
There was an IAAF proposal at one point to expunge all world records set prior to the year 2000 when EPO and another advanced testing came into existence. Probably would’ve been a real good idea. EPO>PEBA shoes.
Is it common? Is it knowledge? Among common fans, there is common belief, but not so much knowledge.
Even then, how common is the belief? It wasn't too long ago that the informed population of letsrun readers responded to a "which records are doped" survey, and the "common belief" among these responders was that only 57% believed that El G's records were doped. Or alternatively, a whopping 43% of informed fans believed El G's records were clean.
It's also a common belief that EPO can actually deliver faster 1500m/mile performances, despite the small number of such fast performances during the EPO era. Pre-EPO era athletes like Cram and Coe still remain competitive today -- Jakob Ingebrigtsen did not beat Cram's 3:46.32 from 1985 -- despite three decades of EPO availability and alleged ease, even today, of beating the EPO tests and the ABP, not to mention improvements in shoes and tracks.
Most of the rest of the world rarely runs the mile. But sticking with the mile, that's 3.33 seconds slower than El G. Plus 5 seconds for the super shoes, so he's 8.33 seconds slower than EL G. Converting back to metric, 3:26.0 + 8.33 seconds would be 3:34.33 for 1500 meters.
Man I wish dragonfly’s would grant me a 5 second mile PR. Too bad they don’t.
Yep - no way Dragonflies are worth 5 seconds in a mile. They're better than normal spikes, no doubt, but they're not as impactful as Vaporflies.
For those born the past 30 years or so, it’s common knowledge that ElGuerrouj was most likely hitting the EPO pretty hard during his world record runs. Same with Ngeny, Komen, etc. All just about the time Miguel Indurain was doing his 510 W for an hour on the bike.
There was an IAAF proposal at one point to expunge all world records set prior to the year 2000 when EPO and another advanced testing came into existence. Probably would’ve been a real good idea. EPO>PEBA shoes.
Is it common? Is it knowledge? Among common fans, there is common belief, but not so much knowledge.
Even then, how common is the belief? It wasn't too long ago that the informed population of letsrun readers responded to a "which records are doped" survey, and the "common belief" among these responders was that only 57% believed that El G's records were doped. Or alternatively, a whopping 43% of informed fans believed El G's records were clean.
It's also a common belief that EPO can actually deliver faster 1500m/mile performances, despite the small number of such fast performances during the EPO era. Pre-EPO era athletes like Cram and Coe still remain competitive today -- Jakob Ingebrigtsen did not beat Cram's 3:46.32 from 1985 -- despite three decades of EPO availability and alleged ease, even today, of beating the EPO tests and the ABP, not to mention improvements in shoes and tracks.
What are you talking about? The four men other than Cram who have ran faster than Jakob did last night, all ran their times in a six year period at the height of the full throttle EPO era.
But I guess you're respond with your analysis that showed that the average mile times of Peru and anatartica did not improve during the EPO era, therefore EPO doesn't work.
Is it common? Is it knowledge? Among common fans, there is common belief, but not so much knowledge.
Even then, how common is the belief? It wasn't too long ago that the informed population of letsrun readers responded to a "which records are doped" survey, and the "common belief" among these responders was that only 57% believed that El G's records were doped. Or alternatively, a whopping 43% of informed fans believed El G's records were clean.
It's also a common belief that EPO can actually deliver faster 1500m/mile performances, despite the small number of such fast performances during the EPO era. Pre-EPO era athletes like Cram and Coe still remain competitive today -- Jakob Ingebrigtsen did not beat Cram's 3:46.32 from 1985 -- despite three decades of EPO availability and alleged ease, even today, of beating the EPO tests and the ABP, not to mention improvements in shoes and tracks.
What are you talking about? The four men other than Cram who have ran faster than Jakob did last night, all ran their times in a six year period at the height of the full throttle EPO era.
But I guess you're respond with your analysis that showed that the average mile times of Peru and anatartica did not improve during the EPO era, therefore EPO doesn't work.
I don’t think Kipsang is actually in much trouble at all. He raced a lot but he’ll rest to Kenyan nationals and then to Worlds. But tactically I’d favor Jakob, and fitness-wise edge to Jakob as well. Kipsang drifts and loses focus at times. Him vs Hoare/Kerr is the more apt Q. Tim is the big variable because when healthy he was better than Jakob’s current level. But if he’s scared to go hard at the start or kick at the finish he’s not going to beat Jakob as a tentative runner.
The 5,000 is the harder part of the double though. You say they need a 51-second close? I think a 53-54 close beats Jakob with a 13-low last 100. Kimeli just did 13.1 in a 12:46 race. Edris’ final 100 is amazing and has dispatched Mo/Barega. Cheptegei has shown he can time his finishes to perfection. Ahmed is not to be underestimated. Bekele showed me something today with how smoothly he turned back everyone. Jakob beating Gebrhiwet who was 4 days removed from not making the Ethiopian 10,000 team doesn’t mean to me he can necessarily hold off/outkick the best East Africans when they will be fresher than him. He could but they will be better and being a 1500m runner doesn’t mean you are always the fastest finisher.
You give such a detailed analysis and mine is so superficial, but the conclusions are the same. Jakob is going to win the 1500, easily. The 5000, wow, I’ll take the field against Jakob, but I’m rooting for him to pull it off.
Envisioning WC 1500 gold being "easy money" for JI vs. peak Tim, peak Kerr and a dialed-in Kipsang is a cute stretch. A more likely distance double will come from Jacob, not Jakob.
What are you talking about? The four men other than Cram who have ran faster than Jakob did last night, all ran their times in a six year period at the height of the full throttle EPO era.
But I guess you're respond with your analysis that showed that the average mile times of Peru and anatartica did not improve during the EPO era, therefore EPO doesn't work.
What about Cheptegei running 12:35 in 5000m two years ago?
And the two kenyan that run 12:43 a week ago?
And these performances of Ingerb are they normal without assistance from something?
(time will reveal in few years people will invente stories about Inger as they did for the previous champion).
There one thing you should put in your head, after El G. peak North African lost motivation in running middle distances. There is no such thing as it was the time of Skah, Hissou ... people were spending the whole year training without taking any holloydays.
Great accomplishment. I’ve seen five better runners in my lifetime. Seb Coe, Ovett, Cram, Couglin, and Scott. Jakob would get absolutely smoked by the first three who are 4 to 5 seconds faster for 800 meters with old shoe technology. No chance gets out kicked. Indoors no contest. Couglin wins. Scott ran 3:47 in 1982. All these guys were racing each other. It was the golden era of mens middle distance running. Honestly, Jakob doesn’t make the podium in the Olympics in that era. If he had to run with old shoes he wouldn’t even break 3:52. He isn’t in the same league as the greats from the 1980s. Keeping it real.
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