Nothing? One kid in 8th grade can't break 10 minutes while another runs 4:30. I would bet you $1M that the faster kid will have a lifetime PR faster also. I give it a 99% chance.
If one kid runs 4:28 and 9:27 as a h.s. senior another runs 4:07 and 8:50 would you bet $1M that the faster kid will also have a faster lifetime PR? If we simply look at times without knowing more about the runners, how they matured, how much they trained to reach a certain point you'd have insufficient information. Turns out that in this particular case you'd be out $1M. The "slow" kid here is Abdihamid Nur. If we had a large enough sample of entering h.s. Freshmen and we knew that they all trained similarly for the same number of years then we could generalize that the kids with the faster times stand a better chance of eventually having better PRs. The example you gave is not a good one, because we're not comparing 10 minute milers to 4:30 milers. If the range is say, 4:45 to 5:10 for a group of entering freshmen I have no way of determining their future prospects without additional information.
Take 5 incoming freshmen that averaged 4:50 compared to 5 incoming freshmen who ran 5:30 and I will bet anything I have that 4:50 kids will have a better team. Doesn’t mean there won’t be one or even two from the 5:30 group that end up being better.
If one kid runs 4:28 and 9:27 as a h.s. senior another runs 4:07 and 8:50 would you bet $1M that the faster kid will also have a faster lifetime PR? If we simply look at times without knowing more about the runners, how they matured, how much they trained to reach a certain point you'd have insufficient information. Turns out that in this particular case you'd be out $1M. The "slow" kid here is Abdihamid Nur. If we had a large enough sample of entering h.s. Freshmen and we knew that they all trained similarly for the same number of years then we could generalize that the kids with the faster times stand a better chance of eventually having better PRs. The example you gave is not a good one, because we're not comparing 10 minute milers to 4:30 milers. If the range is say, 4:45 to 5:10 for a group of entering freshmen I have no way of determining their future prospects without additional information.
Take 5 incoming freshmen that averaged 4:50 compared to 5 incoming freshmen who ran 5:30 and I will bet anything I have that 4:50 kids will have a better team. Doesn’t mean there won’t be one or even two from the 5:30 group that end up being better.
I'm not arguing against the trend you described. It's just that some posts seemed to pinpoint the certainty of the faster incoming runners eventually having faster PRs.
So you think that your imagination is more accurate than the salaries that are publically posted online?
There are NO college distance coaches making at least $1 million per year, and no university will be paying Brosnan that much per year, even if he was "the best" as you claim.
Its not an imagination it is a fact. You clearly have zero understanding of how business works. A posted salary means zero when business is involved. My salary annually for what I do for a living is $113K.
I can tell you what you are seeing on paper is what they want the public to know what they are really making is none of your business but it is well over 7 figures for the best. The best XC/Track coaches at a D-1 Power house are not going to win championships and watch a football/basketball coach at the same university make millions a year and be okay with it. They compensate with side cash.
You make $113K per year plus bonuses? What is your job?
I ask because I'm sure there are some other people who are really dumb like you, and they would like to find a job that for some reason pays dumb people $113K per year.
Seems like in general this has turned into a "he will follow/stay with the money" sorta thread, and maybe that's how it'll play out, but I was just thinking that he's gonna get bored after the class of '23 graduates since there won't be anything more to accomplish in terms of accolades at the high school level.
That's not how it works. Sydney McLaughlin's coach is never going to have another high school girl go to the Olympics, but he has no interest in leaving his high school.
Angelina Perez was 2nd in the country at Eastbay, but her coach is happy being a high school teacher/coach, even though he knows he'll never have another girl that good again.
What about the coach of CBA who had 30+ years of success training top distance runners? He stayed in high school.
Just because a high school coach thinks they will never have more success than they are having now, doesn't mean they are going to leave high school and coach at the college level.
None of us know what Brosnan's future holds. I'm not even sure he knows at this point. I would like to see him stay at NP for a least another five years, hopefully longer. While I haven't agreed with everything he's said or done on balance he's been a positive for high school distance running. That goes beyond the actual runners he coaches to just bringing more attention to running.
Seems like in general this has turned into a "he will follow/stay with the money" sorta thread, and maybe that's how it'll play out, but I was just thinking that he's gonna get bored after the class of '23 graduates since there won't be anything more to accomplish in terms of accolades at the high school level.
That's not how it works. Sydney McLaughlin's coach is never going to have another high school girl go to the Olympics, but he has no interest in leaving his high school.
Angelina Perez was 2nd in the country at Eastbay, but her coach is happy being a high school teacher/coach, even though he knows he'll never have another girl that good again.
What about the coach of CBA who had 30+ years of success training top distance runners? He stayed in high school.
Just because a high school coach thinks they will never have more success than they are having now, doesn't mean they are going to leave high school and coach at the college level.
We aren't talking about those coaches though. We are talking about Brosnan, who currently has 2 freshman boys running on the track distance team at a school with 2496 kids.
That's doesn't strike me as someone building a long term program.
Its not an imagination it is a fact. You clearly have zero understanding of how business works. A posted salary means zero when business is involved. My salary annually for what I do for a living is $113K.
I can tell you what you are seeing on paper is what they want the public to know what they are really making is none of your business but it is well over 7 figures for the best. The best XC/Track coaches at a D-1 Power house are not going to win championships and watch a football/basketball coach at the same university make millions a year and be okay with it. They compensate with side cash.
You make $113K per year plus bonuses? What is your job?
I ask because I'm sure there are some other people who are really dumb like you, and they would like to find a job that for some reason pays dumb people $113K per year.
Hear we go a jerk trying to start a fight. Your the reason why people dislike let's run. Just because you disagree with someone doesn't mean they are dumb. Let me guess you think you can pull 6 figures because someone you disagree with makes solid income? Grow up and get a life.
So you think that your imagination is more accurate than the salaries that are publically posted online?
There are NO college distance coaches making at least $1 million per year, and no university will be paying Brosnan that much per year, even if he was "the best" as you claim.
Its not an imagination it is a fact. You clearly have zero understanding of how business works. A posted salary means zero when business is involved. My salary annually for what I do for a living is $113K. If you add in bonus and additional income I average around $206K, but it says $113K on paper I still get taxed as someone who makes the higher dollar. You are going way too much off of what is listed not what they actually make. Look at the president $400K and he has a couple of mansions. How does that work off of a $400K Salary? The answer is it doesn't. I can tell you what you are seeing on paper is what they want the public to know what they are really making is none of your business but it is well over 7 figures for the best. The best XC/Track coaches at a D-1 Power house are not going to win championships and watch a football/basketball coach at the same university make millions a year and be okay with it. They compensate with side cash.
Bonuses at public universities are rare, but when they do happen, the public salary databases will reflect them. Typically they report base salary, total compensation, and often the fund from which the base salary is paid.
Public university compensation reflects business world really to the extent that your base salary can increase by leveraging other offers and pricing market value. There are sometimes bonuses for things that bring in money or prestige to the university (for example, a prestigious grant as a researcher). These arrangements are more common at private universities.
But all this gets documented. I think you overestimate how much power even ADs have to just throw cash around. Moreover, even if they have cash, it’s not usually going to track. And when it goes to track, it’s not usually going to the distance coach.
A big salary would also presume he’d be able to recruit and develop talent that wins championships. That’s by no means a given. You still need to recruit, and even the best runners still consider the prestige of the university and other factors, so unless he lands at a top academic school there’s no guarantee he could pull recruits. And if he pulled recruits, that doesn’t mean he’ll light up the NCAA.
He’s done amazing things but he’s not a miracle worker.
Its not an imagination it is a fact. You clearly have zero understanding of how business works. A posted salary means zero when business is involved. My salary annually for what I do for a living is $113K. If you add in bonus and additional income I average around $206K, but it says $113K on paper I still get taxed as someone who makes the higher dollar. You are going way too much off of what is listed not what they actually make. Look at the president $400K and he has a couple of mansions. How does that work off of a $400K Salary? The answer is it doesn't. I can tell you what you are seeing on paper is what they want the public to know what they are really making is none of your business but it is well over 7 figures for the best. The best XC/Track coaches at a D-1 Power house are not going to win championships and watch a football/basketball coach at the same university make millions a year and be okay with it. They compensate with side cash.
Bonuses at public universities are rare, but when they do happen, the public salary databases will reflect them. Typically they report base salary, total compensation, and often the fund from which the base salary is paid.
Public university compensation reflects business world really to the extent that your base salary can increase by leveraging other offers and pricing market value. There are sometimes bonuses for things that bring in money or prestige to the university (for example, a prestigious grant as a researcher). These arrangements are more common at private universities.
But all this gets documented. I think you overestimate how much power even ADs have to just throw cash around. Moreover, even if they have cash, it’s not usually going to track. And when it goes to track, it’s not usually going to the distance coach.
A big salary would also presume he’d be able to recruit and develop talent that wins championships. That’s by no means a given. You still need to recruit, and even the best runners still consider the prestige of the university and other factors, so unless he lands at a top academic school there’s no guarantee he could pull recruits. And if he pulled recruits, that doesn’t mean he’ll light up the NCAA.
He’s done amazing things but he’s not a miracle worker.
Very good insight. The information you provided put a pretty clear picture on the overall spectrum of how the payment structure works. I like how you wrote your response without using vulgarity and insult as it shows that you are a professional and and can disagree with someone's thought process without feeling defensive and jumping to insult.
That's not how it works. Sydney McLaughlin's coach is never going to have another high school girl go to the Olympics, but he has no interest in leaving his high school.
Angelina Perez was 2nd in the country at Eastbay, but her coach is happy being a high school teacher/coach, even though he knows he'll never have another girl that good again.
What about the coach of CBA who had 30+ years of success training top distance runners? He stayed in high school.
Just because a high school coach thinks they will never have more success than they are having now, doesn't mean they are going to leave high school and coach at the college level.
We aren't talking about those coaches though. We are talking about Brosnan, who currently has 2 freshman boys running on the track distance team at a school with 2496 kids.
That's doesn't strike me as someone building a long term program.
I had read that NPHS has limited the number of students on the track team across all events. This might also apply to other teams. Their track roster is not very big, esp. relative to other schools. This is not on Brosnan.
There are quite a few variables that are in play which need consideration. First, what are the subjects that Brosnan teaches at NP? Does he see himself as a teacher or as a coach? Does he have his masters degree? If he doesn't have a masters degree his STRS retirement is not going to be "cushy."
Lastly, many years ago I was recruited by a university to be their head coach in track. The salaried position did not pay as well as my public school teaching/coaching salary. But when contacting several college track coaches, I discovered the salary was not the reality of how much I could earn as a college track coach. They mentioned that holding track camps could be extremely lucrative. They also mentioned that coaching pro athletes, holding clinics, writing and publishing were also ways to supplement one's income.
We aren't talking about those coaches though. We are talking about Brosnan, who currently has 2 freshman boys running on the track distance team at a school with 2496 kids.
That's doesn't strike me as someone building a long term program.
I had read that NPHS has limited the number of students on the track team across all events. This might also apply to other teams. Their track roster is not very big, esp. relative to other schools. This is not on Brosnan.
Uh, he’s listed as the head track coach. He certainly is responsible for the overall numbers as well as the paltry number of athletes on the distance side. Appears as though he’s only interested in coaching elite distance runners.
I had read that NPHS has limited the number of students on the track team across all events. This might also apply to other teams. Their track roster is not very big, esp. relative to other schools. This is not on Brosnan.
Uh, he’s listed as the head track coach. He certainly is responsible for the overall numbers as well as the paltry number of athletes on the distance side. Appears as though he’s only interested in coaching elite distance runners.
Uh, no. The NPHS T&F website lists two head coaches: Ahmad Rasheed/sprints, relays; Sean Brosnan/distances, and assistants for both sprints, distance and other events. And both are subject to Marmonte League and school regs. Roster size is limited.
Uh, he’s listed as the head track coach. He certainly is responsible for the overall numbers as well as the paltry number of athletes on the distance side. Appears as though he’s only interested in coaching elite distance runners.
Uh, no. The NPHS T&F website lists two head coaches: Ahmad Rasheed/sprints, relays; Sean Brosnan/distances, and assistants for both sprints, distance and other events. And both are subject to Marmonte League and school regs. Roster size is limited.
Ok, so is he is listed as one of 2 head coaches, focusing on distance. As head coach, the overall program is partly his responsibility. Also, his distance team is tiny. What are the school and league refs that limit their roster size? Thousand Oaks has over 150 kids on their team and is in the same league and school district.
Uh, no. The NPHS T&F website lists two head coaches: Ahmad Rasheed/sprints, relays; Sean Brosnan/distances, and assistants for both sprints, distance and other events. And both are subject to Marmonte League and school regs. Roster size is limited.
Ok, so is he is listed as one of 2 head coaches, focusing on distance. As head coach, the overall program is partly his responsibility. Also, his distance team is tiny. What are the school and league refs that limit their roster size? Thousand Oaks has over 150 kids on their team and is in the same league and school district.
I think NP has around 125-130 kids total. Their website talks about having to make cuts so that they couldn't accommodate more athletes. If I had to guess those cuts would distributed evenly across all events. You make it sound as though Brosnan just marches into the school and has 100 hand picked kids to train. That's not the reality.
We aren't talking about those coaches though. We are talking about Brosnan, who currently has 2 freshman boys running on the track distance team at a school with 2496 kids.
That's doesn't strike me as someone building a long term program.
I had read that NPHS has limited the number of students on the track team across all events. This might also apply to other teams. Their track roster is not very big, esp. relative to other schools. This is not on Brosnan.
Hey great point here, actually, thanks for chiming in with this.
Looking at the boys XC team, this past season they had: 5 seniors 7 juniors 8 sophomores 5 freshman
Do you know if he helps coach the local club team that has those 4-5 sub-5 8th graders someone else was referencing earlier in the thread? As I recall that team is or at least a few years back was pretty big.
Having coached in the past, I could see it making sense to have a larger club team with paying members and then a smaller HS team. Maybe that's what's going on and I'm gonna lose this $1 bet.
Is there much of a reason to mention the girls team? They lose 3 of their top 5 after this year and there is a big drop after their top 2 retiring with a major cliff after their top 3 returning. Maybe they get some new incoming girls and transfers, but there isn’t much to build on currently on the team.
Not that insane depth isn’t there on the boys side, but more like they could be way down other than Doshi who may not improve as much as one might think without the leadership in front of him.
Things look bleak, but you never know who could show up.
Well, looks like the next wave is coming. Based on history of where they get their recruits, the next batch has already run in 8th grade for 1600:
Micah Dickran 4:45
Adrian Cantu 4:48
Noah Sloan 4:49
Maxwell Roe 4:56
Gabriel Bernardino 4:56
Eli Zasloff 4:59
Probably others as well. Not a bad hand to be dealt.
What are the top times for 8th grade girls that will go to Newbury Park next year?
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