Unofficial Seth Demoor Rotterdam ‘Thon Prediction Contest

Saved data wrote:

LAZARUS LAKE'S ASHTRAY wrote:

Watching him is infuriating. He has the talent to go sub-2:18. Pulling off a 2:16 or 2:17 would elevate him into a much higher-tier of runners. He'd be the loveable overly-positive goof who actually puts out very solid, even borderline-elite times.

But instead the bozo spends countless hours running 100+ MPW at 8:30/mile pace, no speedwork, poor nutrition, not enough rest.... He could straight-up skip 20 of his very easy miles each week. Cut out the zone-0 runs and ride a bike with your kids instead. Replace another 20 easy miles with intervals, tempo runs, and even marathon pace work. He'd have 5-6 extra hours each week to sleep, and he'd probably sleep much better.

It's like the guy took a training plan for a 100-miler ultra and uses it for road marathons. And funny enough he sucks at ultras.

He has the talent, the frame, the body, the experience.... and he insists on doing more work that makes him a worse runner. It's not like he's cutting corners and saving a bunch of time and accepting a 2:23 PR as a tradeoff.

It's infuriating to see him p*ss it away. Congrats on being a one-trick PP pony. And that gravy train is almost certainly going to end soon as well.

My prediction is 2:28.

Watching this guy's vlogs way too much, I've noticed that since moving to the McMansion he NEVER runs from home. Other house, always running through the yard, and out on standard routes I can probably run if you put me there.

But now? It's ALWAYS drive to DT Denver, run around like he used to only on snowy days, then park at a coffee shop or someplace and do the video.

The dude is never around the house, despite the fact he's a dad. What's up with this, this even-more-awayness now?

Saved data wrote:

LAZARUS LAKE'S ASHTRAY wrote:

Watching him is infuriating. He has the talent to go sub-2:18. Pulling off a 2:16 or 2:17 would elevate him into a much higher-tier of runners. He'd be the loveable overly-positive goof who actually puts out very solid, even borderline-elite times.

But instead the bozo spends countless hours running 100+ MPW at 8:30/mile pace, no speedwork, poor nutrition, not enough rest.... He could straight-up skip 20 of his very easy miles each week. Cut out the zone-0 runs and ride a bike with your kids instead. Replace another 20 easy miles with intervals, tempo runs, and even marathon pace work. He'd have 5-6 extra hours each week to sleep, and he'd probably sleep much better.

It's like the guy took a training plan for a 100-miler ultra and uses it for road marathons. And funny enough he sucks at ultras.

He has the talent, the frame, the body, the experience.... and he insists on doing more work that makes him a worse runner. It's not like he's cutting corners and saving a bunch of time and accepting a 2:23 PR as a tradeoff.

It's infuriating to see him p*ss it away. Congrats on being a one-trick PP pony. And that gravy train is almost certainly going to end soon as well.

My prediction is 2:28.

Watching this guy's vlogs way too much, I've noticed that since moving to the McMansion he NEVER runs from home. Other house, always running through the yard, and out on standard routes I can probably run if you put me there.

But now? It's ALWAYS drive to DT Denver, run around like he used to only on snowy days, then park at a coffee shop or someplace and do the video.

The dude is never around the house, despite the fact he's a dad. What's up with this, this even-more-awayness now?

Ackley wrote:

kirkandorules wrote:

I love the guy's attitude, and I'm rooting for him, but I can't see him breaking 2:25. He totally has the ability to hit the OTQ standard, but he has to make some serious changes in his training to get there. Honestly he'd probably be closer to the standard on a 100mpw Jack Daniels plan, which calls for about double the number quality workouts he does. He almost never does anything faster than goal race pace, and even that he only does once or twice a month. Aerobic base is a strength of his, and he's way beyond diminishing returns there.

The weird thing is that his training for mountain races is the opposite. Multiple hard efforts per week and FTK efforts out the wazoo. His race results there have been excellent. Maybe he should focus on that year round.

I am a big supporter of Seth and usually watch his videos while drinking cup a coffee and stretching out before heading out for a run.

I have been watching him at least a couple of times a week since right after he finished second in the PP ascent in 2019. After that race he headed into a training to try to get an OTQ at Amsterdam while simultaneously trying to maintain mountain fitness for the World Mountain Championships. If I remember correctly, he did a lot more traditional training at the time (like 13 mile tempos at Marathon pace and speedwork, etc.). With this training, he was able to hang on for a 2:23:something after going out after going out in under 1:07:00 for the half.

This is why this current training block has been strange, he seems to have cut back on both mileage and intensity -- 3 × 5k at Marathon pace and more recently 400s at marathon pace.

Nevertheless, his two PP wins show he is probably a better runner than he was in the Fall of 2019 and I am hoping for the best if he paces himself.