Coevett wrote:
Jakob has definately peaked now. No I mean he has REALLY DEFINATELY peaked now.
Basic word misspelled twice for emphasis.
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Passant wrote:
80% of the work in Tokyo was done by Cherruiyot in a fast track.
Why are you keeping on disillusioning others?
Are you purposely missing the point? Jakob made a break for the lead early and set a fast pace. Cheruiyot overtook him and kept on pressing. Where did El G set an early pace and then fall into formation for a sub-3:30 championship win?
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Passant, sucking eggs, wrote:
Finnished at 344 wrote:
Ask your friend and his Bahraini runner affaire.
The name of your country figure two time s in this list:
eh? what country do you imagine I'm from or support? Your assumptions are wild and your posts are off base.
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Lupus Geertsmashingpumpkin wrote:
Are you purposely missing the point? Jakob made a break for the lead early and set a fast pace. Cheruiyot overtook him and kept on pressing. Where did El G set an early pace and then fall into formation for a sub-3:30 championship win?
Don't bother, mate. You're in a losing argument with a person hell-bent on idolising and worshipping Moroccan athletes.
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JI might get ir or not, but it's certain, that someone, who has run 3:28 in a championship race should and surely will try to get it sometime.
The relevant questions here should be where, when and how such attempt will take place.
Prior to his WR attempt El Guerrouj had a PB of 3:28.91. The Golden League 1500m race in Rome took place in a non-championship year (1998) and featured several strong runners: Daniel Komen (3:29.46 PB at the time), Laban Rotich (3:30.13 PB at the time) and John Kibowen (3:30.44 PB at the time) as well as 10 others + 2 pacemakers.
1st pacemaker Robert Kibet was a 1:43 800m man at a decline of his career and 2nd pacemaker was nobody less than Noah Ngeny, who was a 3:32 guy then and right at the beginning of his impressive career.
Therefore I could see Jakob giving it a go in Monaco, Bislett or Lausanne having Sowinski (800m) and maybe McSweyn (1100m - 1200m) as pacemakers. A good question is if Cheruiyot and Manangoi should be in the race as well, as it would introduce more tension and also create a chance for them to go for the WR themselves.
Another complication is created by a fact, that in 2022 and also 2023 there will be world championships with no "off year" inbetween. Preparation for a championship and a time trial differs significantly, so this could cost Jakob either a serious attempt at the WR or a chance at the gold medal. Same goes for 2024 with Olympic Games in Paris.
I doubt that he is capable of running 3:25 in a championship final, therefore JI might end up being like Mo Farrah: a decorated championship racer with no WR.
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Coevett wrote:
Deanouk wrote:
No one has run 3:26 clean. El G's 3:26.0 was at the height of the EPO era. In that era Lagat run 3:26 low and Ngeny run a 3:26 equivalent mile. They all ran perhaps 2 to 3 secs faster than their natural limit due to EPO.
2 or 3 seconds for EPO is conservative, looking at the studies that have been done, anecdotal reports, and prime examples such as Ramzi, and perhaps Katir.
Then add another second at least due to the roids and HGH that El G in particular was certainly taking to near full throttle levels (the HGH full throttle as there was no testing for that either, which is why his teeth were sticking out of his face by 2004 and the Moroccan team was the only one in history to employ a full time dentist). He was also benefitting from being paced by, competing against, and having teammates all similarly juiced to the gills.
The reality is that we were living in clown world during the EPO era. El G was likely taking EPO and other stuff since his mid teens. If Ramzi can improve 6 seconds in one year, El G may never have broken 3:40 if he had been born 10 years later.
do you ever sit down and think about how far off the deep end you are?
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In February, 1979 no one predicted Seb Coe's WRs that coming summer. No one. And if asked, every "expert" and armchair hobby jogger would have laughed off the possibility.
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reckon mo farah could have broken 3:26 in another universe where he became a 1500m runner
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I think what's fascinating is the constant babble of the 90's being the "height of EPO era".. obviously none of you are still involved in athletics. EPO has only become more heightened since the 90's in addition to more and more cocktails.
Drugs are a lame excuse. You cannot prove nor disprove anyone is clean or dirty other than a failed test and ban or admission of guilt. Plain and simple.
It would be like me saying the 80's were the height of the steroid era, thus Coe is expelled. And as we all know, steroids, like EPO, have become more mainstream since then.
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El G wrote:
2) El Guerrouj ran his WR at the age of 23. Jacob has been training at the highest level at a much younger age than most, which may suggest he will reach his peak at an earlier age. He could take 1 second off his PR in the next 2 years (a significant improvement) and still be over a second off the WR!
Is there any actual evidence that starting training from an earlier age results in an earlier peak? I see this promulgated all the time, but I don't think I've ever seen research supporting it.
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Lollys Master wrote:
JI might get ir or not, but it's certain, that someone, who has run 3:28 in a championship race should and surely will try to get it sometime.
The relevant questions here should be where, when and how such attempt will take place.
Prior to his WR attempt El Guerrouj had a PB of 3:28.91. The Golden League 1500m race in Rome took place in a non-championship year (1998) and featured several strong runners: Daniel Komen (3:29.46 PB at the time), Laban Rotich (3:30.13 PB at the time) and John Kibowen (3:30.44 PB at the time) as well as 10 others + 2 pacemakers.
1st pacemaker Robert Kibet was a 1:43 800m man at a decline of his career and 2nd pacemaker was nobody less than Noah Ngeny, who was a 3:32 guy then and right at the beginning of his impressive career.
Therefore I could see Jakob giving it a go in Monaco, Bislett or Lausanne having Sowinski (800m) and maybe McSweyn (1100m - 1200m) as pacemakers. A good question is if Cheruiyot and Manangoi should be in the race as well, as it would introduce more tension and also create a chance for them to go for the WR themselves.
Another complication is created by a fact, that in 2022 and also 2023 there will be world championships with no "off year" inbetween. Preparation for a championship and a time trial differs significantly, so this could cost Jakob either a serious attempt at the WR or a chance at the gold medal. Same goes for 2024 with Olympic Games in Paris.
I doubt that he is capable of running 3:25 in a championship final, therefore JI might end up being like Mo Farrah: a decorated championship racer with no WR.
Good analysis, I think you are spot on. I think he will be more tempted by gold untill the olympics at least, and then it might be to late for records anyway. (Not that there is any high chance for a record no matter what he wish.).
I think JI is quite grounded. So he might rather dream of 2x olympic gold and 2x wc gold in 1500m with a chance of 5000m success as an absolute dream outcome (if its practically possible) rather than to risk giving it all for a unprobable world record. Note that I am not saying 2x OL gold and 2xwc gold is in the bag, just what is something that could be a dream outcome for JI.
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Appreciation?? wrote:
El G wrote:
2) El Guerrouj ran his WR at the age of 23. Jacob has been training at the highest level at a much younger age than most, which may suggest he will reach his peak at an earlier age. He could take 1 second off his PR in the next 2 years (a significant improvement) and still be over a second off the WR!
Is there any actual evidence that starting training from an earlier age results in an earlier peak? I see this promulgated all the time, but I don't think I've ever seen research supporting it.
I think it has been stated so many times in here that people think this is some rule of physics.
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Idk man. When youre running 80 miles per week starting at 6 years old, that's gotta do something to your improvement curve besides just raising the peak.
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Kobbs Hessler wrote:
In February, 1979 no one predicted Seb Coe's WRs that coming summer. No one. And if asked, every "expert" and armchair hobby jogger would have laughed off the possibility.
As a 21 year old, S. Coe, summer, 1978 set an 800m personal best of 1:44.xx. All 21 or 22 year old 1:44.xx 800m men should be taken seriously when they race 800m to one mile. One mile world record, Oslo, 1979, I knew Steve Scott was likely to lose to Coe with 660 yards to go. Are you implying J. Ingebrigtsen is going to run a 1:44.xx 800m at age 21?
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T&F wise guy wrote:
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
In February, 1979 no one predicted Seb Coe's WRs that coming summer. No one. And if asked, every "expert" and armchair hobby jogger would have laughed off the possibility.
As a 21 year old, S. Coe, summer, 1978 set an 800m personal best of 1:44.xx. All 21 or 22 year old 1:44.xx 800m men should be taken seriously when they race 800m to one mile. One mile world record, Oslo, 1979, I knew Steve Scott was likely to lose to Coe with 660 yards to go. Are you implying J. Ingebrigtsen is going to run a 1:44.xx 800m at age 21?
Jakob will possibly not run a 800m in this championship year BUT.......
He could most likely run sub 1:45 already this year with a bit of preparation. He is - as you know - far better than Centro and Engels who both ran sub 1:45.
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OozmaKappa wrote:
Idk man. When youre running 80 miles per week starting at 6 years old, that's gotta do something to your improvement curve besides just raising the peak.
Why? Other than getting tired of running. This must be the only sport where it is a negative to have started early.
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El G wrote:
Jakob will never break the 1500m outdoor world record. Here’s why:
1) the last 2 years his outdoor best has been 3:28.68 and 3:28.32 (in 2 time-trial type races, one of which being the Olympic final - the biggest race of his life). This is a possible sign his progression is slowing.
2) El Guerrouj ran his WR at the age of 23. Jacob has been training at the highest level at a much younger age than most, which may suggest he will reach his peak at an earlier age. He could take 1 second off his PR in the next 2 years (a significant improvement) and still be over a second off the WR!
3) Breaking multiple age-group WR’s is not a given that he will break senior outdoor records. Just shows that he started training seriously at a much younger age.
This is not taking anything away from Jacob and his career should not be seen as a failure if he does not break a senior outdoor world record. He will still go down as one of the best milers in history, but El G’s record is not easy hence why no one has gone near it even with the introduction of the new spikes.
Bold take El G
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I don't think the early start makes the difference people think, but it does matter. I would say the clock doesn't truly start until you are fully grown. 15 or 16 years old maybe
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Nobody clean can run 3:26. El G was very likely on EPO. Don't forget, the guy who came the closest in recent years is serving a 4-year ban.
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I would put $100,000 down that he breaks 3:26. Vegas odds say I would probably make a $1,000,000 on my bet which means its a 1 in 10 that he does it. So he will likely run 3:25 point. I don't think he will run 3:25. I am actually wondering how far under 3:25 he runs will he run 3:24 low mid or high or will he brak 3:24 and run 3:23.9 or something.
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