I do hope Beamish wins but i just feel he drifts a bit much in the third quarter . As for Hocker if he finishes the way he did last year then he will be hard to beat but if he doesn't position himself right then there is a good chance that hes climbing stairs with a fridge on his back the last 50.. (very deep field that won;t let him dictate the race on his terms)
Yes, I do realise that he beat him, but upsets happen, and you don't have to strictly go off of straight results. Not everything is statistics. Surely you're aloud to throw in a bit of a hot take. And I'm more of a Beamish fan than a Kiptoo fan. But, I still do think Kiptoo will run faster than Beamish. And Beamish (by my predictions) will finish second so there's not much to lose anyway. I think it's pretty reasonable to think Kiptoo will win this one and flirt with the collegiate record.
Beamish closed an indoor 5K (4th December 2021) in 26.25 seconds. Do not underestimate Beamish's kick.
The whole thing. wrote:
Beamish closed an indoor 5K (4th December 2021) in 26.25 seconds. Do not underestimate Beamish's kick.
If Beamish out kicks Hocker, I’ll be back on this thread admitting my hubris and ignorance. Not going to happen. Hocker is A team and the rest of this crowd is B team or worse. These early races are so much about who prepared and who cares, but if this was a championship final where everybody was as ready as possible, Hocker would dominate this bunch. They are all going to sit around one day and trade stories about how they got to race Hocker way back when…..
He went out 1:50/2:11
He went out 1:50/2:11. Training to put everyone in “The house of pain” for the 3000. He is going out in 3:59 first 1600 at Millrose
michiganrunner55 wrote:
He went out 1:50/2:11. Training to put everyone in “The house of pain” for the 3000. He is going out in 3:59 first 1600 at Millrose
Awesome! Definitely tuning in now
Wise Old Man wrote:
rhimby wrote:
Yeah that's silly. I'd say maybe Hocker could scalp Kincaid, maybe. Fisher and Chelimo, no way, unless the race is very tactical.
What I’m saying is that the gap between Hocker and Jakob or Tim is going to less than the gap between Fisher or Chelimo and Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Barega et al. I realize Chelimo just medaled, but I was looking to the future not the past. Obviously in Tokyo Chelimo out performed Hocker, but honestly, your not more exited about what Hocker will do over the next few years than Fisher or Chelimo or Klecker or Kincaid, etc? I’ll also stick to at least saying Hocker could make the 5K team if he cared to try. Maybe he wouldn’t beat Fisher or Chelimo yet, but I’m sure his career PB will end up sub 13 if he wants this.
I am more excited for Fisher still. He just placed 5th in the 10k and 9th in the 5k. Not a big Kincaid fan afer that USA trials drama where he refused to take the lead but he is still a sub 13 man and I would not put hocker over any of the top 3 5k guys in the US. I am not even convinced he can beat Cooper Teare at 5000m yet.
my final prediction
1-3 in no order: Hunter , Grijalva, Beamish
4: Hocker
5-7 in no order: Kiptoo, Nico young, Teare(said on youtube he isa little behind Hocker due to running xc and taking break)
All that being said its January so realistically anyone can win this race and its most likely a college guy or someone who aims to perform well at world Indoors. I just don't see Hocker taking the lead in this race and that is why I have him at 4th. If he takes initiative then that changes things but he has never done that in fields of equal or greater talent. A fit Teare or Grijalva can kick with him still in my opinion in mile+ distances.
I love watching Kiptoo in 5k/10k college race where he goes out in 4:10 and drops everyone but his mile PR is 4:01 which may be the the 1st mile split in this race. I think Hocker and Teare go 1-2.
I don't think anyone in the field outclasses hocker over the longer distances, even if they're better its not by enough to drop him. So the question is, 200 to go and hockers still in the mix is there anyone you take over him? I say no.
FutureOldHead wrote:
I don't think anyone in the field outclasses hocker over the longer distances, even if they're better its not by enough to drop him. So the question is, 200 to go and hockers still in the mix is there anyone you take over him? I say no.
I think if this were a 5k it would be a different story. But 3k is just wayyyy too close to his wheelhouse for anyone in this field to drop him, in my opinion.
Who wins? wrote:
The field is loaded
Drew Hunter
Wesley Kiptoo
Luis Grijalva
Nico Young
James West
Morgan Beadlescomb
Cooper Teare
Geordie Beamish
Sam Parsons
John Gay
Jeremy Hernandez
Charles Hicks
Cole Hocker
Conner Mantz
I agree with others on this thread that Hocker - as the only world class runner - must be the clear favorite to win.
Posters are talking much about shape but in my opinion every serious runner (and especially the professional ones) should be able to if they allow for a bit of tapering to run a fast 3000m also in ths time of the year.
I suppose and hope Hocker is training with focus to improve his aerobic capacity and this endurance is what he needs to run a fast race.
The Centro like way where you turn up out of shape needing to regain your former level is OUTDATED.
-------------
Other top runners:
Wesley Kiptoo
Nico Young who seems to be in good shape
Geordie Beamish
Conner Mantz
Charles Hicks who got a well deserved win in the European X country in December
I ´m uncertain about Hunter due to his fluctuating performances and Teare due to his collaps in the X country 10km late last year.
westsouthrunner wrote:I just don't see Hocker taking the lead in this race and that is why I have him at 4th. If he takes initiative then that changes things but he has never done that in fields of equal or greater talent.
Oh, why stretch the truth? Dial things back a couple of years when Hocker was winning Footlocker.
Westsouthrunner thinks that Hunter is going to win. I wouldn't worry about what he says about Hocker.
While Beamish and Kiptoo were running 5ks under 13:15 and Nico Young was knocking out a likely NCAA qualifier,
Drew Hunter was getting dropped by these guys in an XC race:
https://worldathletics.org/competition/calendar-results/results/7176221
. His best result over the last couple of years is a 5k road race where his main accomplishment was beating an out of season Centro who was hoping to knab an easy paycheck.
Marko Jr Jr wrote:
westsouthrunner wrote:I just don't see Hocker taking the lead in this race and that is why I have him at 4th. If he takes initiative then that changes things but he has never done that in fields of equal or greater talent.
Oh, why stretch the truth? Dial things back a couple of years when Hocker was winning Footlocker.
What does he mean, “take the initiative?” Hocker takes the lead when it counts…as the finish approaches, so he can win. He’s being knocked for positioning himself perfectly for the win and not being a front runner who flails like Kiptoo?
You know what Pre would have said.
but but wrote:
You know what Pre would have said.
If only Pre was as talented as Hocker….
2018?? NCAA Indoor Mile Champs, 2021 Sir Walter Mile (was ~30m behind Prakel, Ciattei, Engels, Sulliman, and Philibert-Thiboutot with 100 to go and hawked them all down and still ran 3:54.9)
westsouthrunner wrote:
A fit Teare or Grijalva can kick with him still in my opinion in mile+ distances.
You are forgetting what Hocker did at NCAA Indoors last year. After winning the mile (in I think a meet record?) he outkicked a fresher Teare to win in 7:46 closing in 25.XX. When has Grijalva ever closed a race in 25.XX let alone a 7:46 race?
+/- 20 seconds