NCAA Individ. Champ Predictions

1. Boit - winning ncaa's is about what you bring to the table on race day. if this race was run 100 times, i could imagine probably about 7 or 8 different guys winning it... it's all about who is ready to go on race day and who's having "his day." that being said, i see boit as the hungriest out there. 3rd last year getting dropped in the last k by bairu, it ain't gonna happen again. i dont think mcdougal will be there with them in the last k.

2. Bairu - wants his 2nd title bad, but i just dont think boit will be defeated. bairu is not head and shoulders above the rest of the field the way that history's repeat champions have been (lindgren, pre, rono, kennedy, siamusiye... i don't put bairu in a category with those runners). that said, he will be there but boit will be too strong on monday.

3. McDougal - VERY impressive season, but he is only a sophomore, and i don't see it happening this year. mcd will gain valuable experience and, more importantly, the hunger it will take for him to potentially be a 2x champion. believe it.

4. Solinsky - he will bring it after a disappointment last season.

5. Cheseret - too talented to not be top 5... but does he have what it takes to win the whole thing?

6. Withrow - if you saw the pics from big 10's, it looked like withrow was digging pretty deep. i believe that he's in great shape, but not ready to win the whole show.

7. Kiplagat - has scary potential... was toying with fagan at van cortland... but like everyone has said, a risky pick, as he could easily bomb and be in the 40's again.

8. Kosgei - he got into shape REAL fast when his team needed him to.

9. Chesang - why does everyone leave this guy off their lists? 7TH LAST YEAR! there's no way he's not in the top 10.

10. Schoolmeester - don't know what happened to him, after a lot of ppl picked him as a favorite during the early season... but he showed up to race last year when it counted, and colorado will do it again.

11. Rohatinsky - very consistent, could easily sneak into the top 10.

12. Lemoncello - in the 30's last year, has improved by leaps and bounds

13. Benninger - ND should surprise people, led by benninger.

14. Fagan - 23:48 at VCP isn't for nothing.

15. Nelson - always shows up to race when they need him... could easily be top 10 as well.

not sure what or where van cortland is, but i do know kiplagat and fagan raced each other at franklin park last week.

1 Simon Bairu, Wisconsin

2 Josh McDougal, Liberty

3 Josphat Boit, Arkansas

4 Brett Schoolmeester, Colorado

5 Chris Solinski, Wisconsin

6 Benson Chesang, Kansas

7 Sean Forrest, Arkansas

8 Wes Keating, Texas Ban America

9 Richard Kiplagat, Iona

10 Kurt Benniger, Notre Dame

11 Josh Rohatinski, BYU

12 Brian Olinger, Ohio State

13 Robert Cheseret, Arizona

14 Billy Nelson, Colorado

15 Martin Fagan, Providence

16 Peter Kosgei, Arkansas

17 Tony Okello, South Alabama

18 Obed Muntanya, Arizona

19 Sean Jefferson, Indiana

20 Neftalem Araia, Stanford

21 Stephen Samoei, Utep

22 Jonah Maiyo, Arizona

23 Stephen Pifer, Colorado

24 Anthony Ford, Wisconsin

25 Kip Kangogo, Texas Christian

26 Augustus Maiyo, Alabama

27 Bobby Lockhart, Wisconsin

28 Fleet Hower, Georgetown

29 Mircea Bogan, Utep

30 Andrew Lemoncello, Florida State

31 Joe Gray, Oklahoma State

32 Joe Throne, Texas

33 Tim Moore, Notre Dame

34 Kiel Uhl, Iowa State

35 Sean Quigley, La Salle

36 Josh Robles, Arkansas

37 Mike Woods, Michigan

38 James Strang, Colorado

39 Casey Burchill, Arizona State

40 Mike Devenport, Oklahoma State

41 Ken Cormier, Arkansas

42 Ben True, Dartmouth

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

1. McDougal

Forgot Withrow (wisco), around 15ish, and Eagon (wisco) in the mid-low 40s

Teams

1 Wisco

2 Arkansas

3 Colorado

4 Notre Dame

5 Arizona

6 Standord

7 Texas

8 UTEP

9 Alabama

10 Oklahoma State

11 BYU

12 Ohio State

13 Iona

14 Georgetown

15 Florida State

16 Kansas

17 William and Mary

18 Iowa

19 Florida

20 Dartmouth

Here they are- the winning picks:

Individuals:

1. Simon Bairu

2. Josphat Boit

3. Josh McDougal

4. Robert Cheseret

5. Richard Kiplagat

6. Brent Vaughn

7. Martin Fagan

8. Chris Solinsky

9. Westley Keating

10. Josh Rohatinsky

11. Peter Kosgei

12. Tonny Okello

13. Brett Schoolmeester

14. Shawn Forrest

15. Kip Kongago

16. Billy Nelson

17. Andrew Lemoncello

18. Obed Mutanya

19. Kurt Benninger

20. Matt Withrow

Teams:

1. Colorado - Yes, they will probably win again.

2. Wisconsin - Withrow won't be strong enough

3. Arkansas - 4th and 5th runners will drag them down

4. Arizona - Good showing at Regionals shows they're ready

5. Stanford - Notre Dame may beat them

6. Notre Dame

7. UTEP

8. Iona

9. Texas

10. Alabama

You gonna leave Solinsky out of the top 20. I doubt that will happen.

my bad you have him in there

but on another note....i don't think that vaughn will be running

In a post on the first page, someone listed the top 3 performances of the season, which I would have to disagree with. The top 3 performances of the season, thus far, were:

1. McDougal at Pre-Nat's: He won by 20 seconds, beating Richard Kiplagat, and setting his 2nd course record of the season. The question is who can and will really push this guy? I'd agree with a former poster than he is in the best aerobic shape out of anyone else in the NCAA after at least half a dozen weeks of 120 miles/week.

2. Boit at Chilepepper: He beat a strong field(Cheseret, M. Chesang, Mutai, Naimadu, Rono, Okello,...) and in a blazing fast time.

3. Fagan at VCP - Set the course record on a pretty difficult course, running faster than previous greats Keith Kelly, Mark Carroll, and Ray Treacy.

The funny thing is if you were running for Wisconsin or Arkansas, would you be counting on Vaughn not running? I'd almost be expecting him to run, and be in great shape, just to expect the best out of my competitors so I knew how much I was going to have to give.

I have read a number of compelling cases for McDougall running well. I am moving my prediction for him from 14th place to 13th place.

At the WC, Withrow beat former champ Ritz, former 3rd placer G.Thompson, and former 5th placer Dobson. This after he wasn't good enough to compete for Wisconsin. In his only track race, he beat 3K champ Solinsky and trials runner up Asmerom.

He wasn't sharp in any of those races. He is much better now. He also has one of the best kicks in the field.

Withrow will win.

Not even going to attempt picking the top 40, or top 20 teams.

Top 5 Teams

1. Wisconsin

2. Arkansas

3. Colorado

4. Iona

5. Stanford

Top 10 Individuals

1. Bairu

2. McDougall

3. Boit

4. Kiplagat

5. Withrow

6. Chesang

7. Lemoncello

8. Fagan

9. Solinsky

10.Cheseret

ttc wrote:

At the WC, Withrow beat former champ Ritz, former 3rd placer G.Thompson, and former 5th placer Dobson. This after he wasn't good enough to compete for Wisconsin. In his only track race, he beat 3K champ Solinsky and trials runner up Asmerom.

He wasn't sharp in any of those races. He is much better now. He also has one of the best kicks in the field.

Withrow will win.

That was last year. I'd say that Withrow is a stronger runner now, after probably having put in a good long summer and a full season of what I would assume was good quality training, so I don't doubt that he's in great physical form, except that he didn't race at regionals, which makes me think that something is wrong with him. If he's not healthy, he's not going to win. He had one presumably hard race earlier in the season where he basically tied with other teammates, and then at Big 10's he was about 15 seconds behind Solinsky, and about 45 seconds behind Bairu. Now, at Big 10's, there was probably no point in going hard, but, was Bairu going hard? Was Solinsky going hard? It's hard to really judge how great of shape Withrow is in RIGHT NOW when he hasn't put in a good hard race. I see him finishing, at the highest, 4th, at the lowest, 20th, and most likely, somewhere in between there, and being the 3rd runner on the team.

People have no respect for Rohatinsky. Seems like everyone just picks him 10th or 11th because that's what the first guy did. The guys pushing 30 or something. He's in his prime!

was on the course today some standing water but it will be talk in care of.. everyone is staying off it but it may be pretty solid cause of the low temperatures. it may be frozen solid or muddy by saturday..

Wes Keating!

WILL WIN NATS!

Matt Withrow will it. The kid is the champ. The boy handles Bairu every day of the week. The last workout Withrow beat Bairu so bad he thought he was racing Jason Rexing.