NCAA Individ. Champ Predictions

1. Boit

2. Bairu

3. Cheserek

4. McDougal

5. Solinsky

6. Kiplagat

7. Mutanya

8. Kosgei

9. Nelson

10.Chesang

11.Rohatinsky

12.Benninger

13.Keating

14.Lemoncello

15.Olinger

16.Schollmeester

Team Results

1. Arkansas

2. Wisconsin

3. Arizona

4. Colorado

5. Stanford

6. Norte Dame

7. BYU

8. Texas

Wisconsin shouldn't lose, that is all I can say about it, they would have to F up again to lose, they are clearly better than Arkansas, but the Hogs can win if they run great and Wisco doesn't. I just don't see the Badgers blowing it two years in a row.

The individual race basically comes down to Boit, McDougal, Kiplagat and Keating trying to beat Bairu, the heavy favorite. I don't see anyone else winning.

Westly Keating will win NATS

I will not beat against the defending champ expecially sense in the two races he actually raced he was dominant. i think Wisco should win but i dont think they have as much depth as it seems, they need good races from Bairu, Solinsky, Withrow, Eagon, and Ford. if they have to go to someone else for scoring then i think Arkansas could be trouble. I'm just saying there is never much room for error at nats and so you cant say there's no chance they will lose.

Boit

Bairu

McDougal

Kiplagat

Keating

Kosgei

Fagan

Rohatinsky

Solinsky

Weather and potential for mud will play a big factor though!

NikeFree wrote:

6. Westly K[Ch]eating- Apparently Wes has found the stash he hid away in his dorm room last year and is back in top 10 form. The SC regional course was running about a minute slower this year than it was last year when Boit won in around 29:30... that was Wes' time this year. Although he may have gone a little too hard the week before, I expect he can just take something for the "fatigue".

That is uncalled for. Acting out your suspicions on the basis of unfounded rumors from bitter ex-teammates is not "evidence" anymore than a Democrat's dislike for Bush would be evidence to support impeachment.

Please consider the sources and consider the damage you do in accusing people baselessly. No more attacks. Otherwise this discussion is good; don't ruin it with slander.

Predictions for the NCAA Championship:

1. Josh McDougal is an amazing runner. He is aerobically stronger than anyone in the NCAA. 120 mile week after 120 mile week, cruising fast 10 mile threshold runs, destroying course record after course record...the guy is undefeated, and I say that on November 22, 2005 (day after Nationals) he will still be undefeated.

2. Richard Kiplagat. This is tough to pick. The race really is wide open. There is no Boaz or Goucher that just dominated in the past. But Kiplagat took a big scalp in Martin Fagan, and I think his finishing kick (having outkicked Fagan) is a little better than Boit's, who was lost for a finish against Gonzales last year.

3. Josephat Boit. Excellent runner, very strong, and he is the top guy on the Arkansas team that was ranked #1 in the country.

4. Westley Keating. The guy ran 29:30 on a course that Boit ran 29:30 in last year but in worse conditions. If that effort did not take it out of him, he is obviously in fantastic shape. 7th place 2 years ago, this year he'll be top 5.

5. Simon Bairu. The defending champion deserves respect and he is a great cross-country runner. But it is clear that McDougal has stepped things up, Kiplagat has stepped things up, Keating has stepped things up, but Bairu has not shown that dominance.

There has been much made of Wisconsin's tendency to hold people back in races, but we must assume that the results are more or less a reflection of the runner's ability at the time.

6. Martin Fagan. Shattering that hallowed VCP record and dueling with Kiplagat while waving to the fans says something about fitness, namely, that it is there in abundance.

7. Robert Chesert. Bernard Lagat's brother, beat Ritzenhein over 5K 2 years ago, and a really good runner.

8. Matt Withrow. Who knows if he is even running, but his great finish at USATF against big guns like Broe and Ritzenhein as well as his top finish for the US at WXC in the 12K means he will be in the mix if he shows up.

9. Chris Solinsky. The guy ran 23:21 at Notre Dame and is always up there. He looks like a football player but he can run with the best.

10. Billy Nelson. He seems to have replaced Schoolmeester just barely as the top Colorado guy. Colorado is always a force and thus they will surely have someone in the top 10.

This will be a fantastic, wide open race. Hopefully they will show it on TV somewhere.

Prediction-meester wrote:..but Bairu has not shown that dominance.

come again?

check out the griak and big 10 results, compare those with the individual winners at notre dame and pre-nats, and then change your mind.

Phaedrus wrote:

come again?

check out the griak and big 10 results, compare those with the individual winners at notre dame and pre-nats, and then change your mind.

My point is that he has been defeated whereas McDougal has not. McDougal had a bloody stide stitch, eased off, and demolished the CR by former NCAA winner and 13:20 runner Jorge Torres. Bairu has not done anything like that.

I mean no disrespect, and predictions are generally worthless as is most speculation about athletic events that have not happened, but it's fun to guess what will happen.

I would posit that the three most impressive individual performances of the year thus far are, in order:

1. McDougal at pre-nats

2. Bairu at big 10s

3. Bairu at griak

Granted, Griak is a little early to be of much predictive value, but all evidence shows that Bairu's early-season dominance bodes well for Nationals. Moreover, while I understand your point about the difficulty of evaluating Wisconsin's fitness based on "easy" races, I think that Bairu's past consistency and performance at Griak and Big 10s make it pretty clear that Regionals and Jim Drews tell absolutely nothing about his fitness.

Of course, anything can happen on race day.

when was bairu defeated?

didn't think so.

TTTB says -- Mcdougal will not win. Maybe he run too hard, too early,in season. Top 10, yes, #1, NO!!!

theOTHERwhitemeat wrote:

when was bairu defeated?

didn't think so.

For starters:

11/13/05

10 10 257 Simon Bairu SR WISCONSIN 31:23.7 5:04

it was called a jog dumbass, while people blew there load last week, he was talking in the race, thinking i hope people think i'm racing hard

Remember these words.McDougal has not the strenght of Bairu and Boit

Actually Mcdougall is stronger, he just doesn't have the kick, we will see if strength is enough.

Bairu is obviously going to win nats, no doubt. McDougal is so overated its not even funny. He will finish top 5 at best, just watch. Remember 2004 footlocker nats everyone was expecting him to win, but he ended up like 4th or something. McDougal can never win a championship race, because he has never peaked a day in his life.

forrest wrote:Remember 2004 footlocker nats everyone was expecting him to win...

they were??

I remember there being several co-favorites, and he was one of them, but I don't remember 'everyone expecting him to win'

I think Kiptoo and Rupp were the favorites in that race in most peoples eyes.

I do not know about Bairu at Griak because I haven't broke it down but Bairu's performance at Big 10 was better than McDougal's performance at pre-nats. Not trying to knock what McDougal did but it should be noted that based off of what the people who ran the same race at pre-nats and Big 10 there was a very clear 40 second difference in performance. Add that to McDougal's time and he would finish more than 10 seconds behind Bairu. Maybe both frontrunners didn't run all out but bottomline is Bairu had a better race.

McDougal might win NCAA's but I doubt it.