Omicron: risk goes way down, panic goes way up.

i am so confused · 2022-01-02T20:58:05-05:00

I continue to be baffled by the hysterical response to a far, far milder version of a disease that was already extremely unlikely to cause healthy people any harm. Omicron is like a cold…OMG WEAR N95s!!! It makes zero sense. I no longer understand humans.

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4 years ago 01/03/2022 1:56pm EST

re: Hardloper

Hardloper wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it.
Plz expand on the math. The probability I would eventually get exposed to the delta variant was essentially 100%. The transmissibility of the omicron variant just means it will happen sooner.

Well you've got a bit of a strawman argument going here, and we'll have to agree on definitions.

One part of the risk calculation that I didn't mention was time. To use an example from an endemic disease, you're chances of having the flu at some point in your life is essentially 100%. Basically everyone gets the flu at some point, and many people get it multiple times. The probability of you getting the flu in any given period of time is considerably less than 100%.

There are many people both vaccinated and unvaccinated who have never been infected with covid, so we know the probability is not 100%. That's strawman.

Now you didn't say infected, you said exposed to. That probability might be closer to 100% depending on your definition of exposure. Exposure does not equal infection.

What we're really looking at is the probability of being exposed, and then the probability of being infected given an exposure. We're pretty settled on the fact that omicron spreads more easily, so given an exposure, you're more likely to be infected. With more people being infected, you're going to have more opportunities for exposure, which will lead to more infections, which will lead to more exposures, and so on...

Again, we know that there have been something like 60 million covid cases in the US, so the probability of being infected is well below 100% (it's actually less than 20% if you just go with the simple probability). Let's say omicron increases that to 30% or 40% or 50% (we have no way of knowing yet what it will be), at some point, the increased number of infections will lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.

Does that make sense?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:06pm EST

re: EpiRunner

EpiRunner wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
Plz expand on the math. The probability I would eventually get exposed to the delta variant was essentially 100%. The transmissibility of the omicron variant just means it will happen sooner.
Well you've got a bit of a strawman argument going here, and we'll have to agree on definitions.
One part of the risk calculation that I didn't mention was time. To use an example from an endemic disease, you're chances of having the flu at some point in your life is essentially 100%. Basically everyone gets the flu at some point, and many people get it multiple times. The probability of you getting the flu in any given period of time is considerably less than 100%.
There are many people both vaccinated and unvaccinated who have never been infected with covid, so we know the probability is not 100%. That's strawman.
Now you didn't say infected, you said exposed to. That probability might be closer to 100% depending on your definition of exposure. Exposure does not equal infection.
What we're really looking at is the probability of being exposed, and then the probability of being infected given an exposure. We're pretty settled on the fact that omicron spreads more easily, so given an exposure, you're more likely to be infected. With more people being infected, you're going to have more opportunities for exposure, which will lead to more infections, which will lead to more exposures, and so on...
Again, we know that there have been something like 60 million covid cases in the US, so the probability of being infected is well below 100% (it's actually less than 20% if you just go with the simple probability). Let's say omicron increases that to 30% or 40% or 50% (we have no way of knowing yet what it will be), at some point, the increased number of infections will lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.
Does that make sense?

To be fair, the true number of infections is likely north of 120 million, but the point still stands. Hospitalizations are rising now, and even if a substantial part of that is people testing positive for covid when admitted to hospital, the ICU numbers are also rising. Given the sheer number of infections, it wouldn't be silly to think ICU numbers could get near what was seen in the worst two waves the US has experienced.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:12pm EST

re: i am so confused

He was (not is) a good guy. Ran a small business, didn't like to pay taxes, musician. Decidedly not a liberal. Didn't believe in supporting vaccine or "big pharma."

i am so confused wrote:
Hill Stomper wrote:
My neighbor just died from it after being sick for 6 days. Overweight, unvaxxed, no prior illnesses. 55 years old.
Well he’s an idiot. No sympathy. I’m supposed to wear a mask all damn day to protect morons like that?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:21pm EST

re: Liberals are morons..

Liberals are morons.. wrote:
Bingo Is His Namo wrote:
Blatantly false. This is something DanM has tried over and over again to say on this forum. Proven time and time again he was wrong.
I didn't say it Fauci did....
Do you honestly thing Fauci is right about everything he's ever said except this? lol...

Fauci said this on TV this week-end. I was a bit surprised he admitted this.

How can these pro vaxxers be so ignorant of so many things?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:29pm EST

re: Bingo Is His Namo

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:30pm EST

re: i am so confused

I love the posts in here asking who's panicking. Really? Have you seen any of the omicron CNN headlines over the last month?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:32pm EST

re: Avid Hobby Jogger

Avid Hobby Jogger wrote:
So did Newsweek misquote him?
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children-hospital-covid-omicron-1664676

I don't like Fauci but have to give him credit where credit is due. Someone needed to clarify this and his voice holds a lot of weight with people who would have inevitably panicked over the 'rising child hospitalization' numbers. My kids had covid after Thanksgiving, so likely Delta. We literally never would have known except for the positive test result. Yes, I know that's anecdotal but so are all the articles with a kid on a ventilator. The overall numbers suggest that this continues to be absurdly mild for children.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:40pm EST

re: i am so confused

State of Rhode Island creates health care labor shortage by ordering hospitals to fire workers who refuse the "vaccine". Now Covid positive workers are called in.

https://www.nwahomepage.com/news/covid-positive-health-care-employees-called-in-to-work-in-rhode-island/

COVID positive health care employees called in to work in Rhode Island

Posted: Jan 3, 2022 / 02:13 PM CST / Updated: Jan 3, 2022 / 02:13 PM CST

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) — At least two Rhode Island health care facilities have begun allowing workers who have tested positive for the coronavirus to continue treating patients amid the ongoing pandemic and a medical staffing crisis.

The state’s health department confirmed Monday that Rhode Island has aligned its quarantine and isolation policies for health care workers with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The policy allows health care facilities, such as hospitals and nursing homes, to call employees into work, even if they have tested positive for the coronavirus, and — in certain circumstances — are experiencing mild symptoms.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:45pm EST

re: EpiRunner

EpiRunner wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
Plz expand on the math. The probability I would eventually get exposed to the delta variant was essentially 100%. The transmissibility of the omicron variant just means it will happen sooner.
Well you've got a bit of a strawman argument going here, and we'll have to agree on definitions.
One part of the risk calculation that I didn't mention was time. To use an example from an endemic disease, you're chances of having the flu at some point in your life is essentially 100%. Basically everyone gets the flu at some point, and many people get it multiple times. The probability of you getting the flu in any given period of time is considerably less than 100%.
There are many people both vaccinated and unvaccinated who have never been infected with covid, so we know the probability is not 100%. That's strawman.
Now you didn't say infected, you said exposed to. That probability might be closer to 100% depending on your definition of exposure. Exposure does not equal infection.
What we're really looking at is the probability of being exposed, and then the probability of being infected given an exposure. We're pretty settled on the fact that omicron spreads more easily, so given an exposure, you're more likely to be infected. With more people being infected, you're going to have more opportunities for exposure, which will lead to more infections, which will lead to more exposures, and so on...
Again, we know that there have been something like 60 million covid cases in the US, so the probability of being infected is well below 100% (it's actually less than 20% if you just go with the simple probability). Let's say omicron increases that to 30% or 40% or 50% (we have no way of knowing yet what it will be), at some point, the increased number of infections will lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.
Does that make sense?

It's not as mild as people are making it out to be. It really hasn't hit hospitalizations upstate where you are at, but it is already impacting New York City and Long Island. New York City saw a 130% rise in hospitalizations between Christmas Eve and New Years Eve and has more people hospitalized with COVID currently than the peak of last winter (and I am guessing that most of the new hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated individuals based upon data from Ontario).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/nyregion/hospitals-ny-covid.html

And as we discovered in the first wave of COVID, what happens in the Northeast eventually makes its way to the rest of the country.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 2:55pm EST

re: joed|rttt

joed|rttt wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
Well you've got a bit of a strawman argument going here, and we'll have to agree on definitions.
One part of the risk calculation that I didn't mention was time. To use an example from an endemic disease, you're chances of having the flu at some point in your life is essentially 100%. Basically everyone gets the flu at some point, and many people get it multiple times. The probability of you getting the flu in any given period of time is considerably less than 100%.
There are many people both vaccinated and unvaccinated who have never been infected with covid, so we know the probability is not 100%. That's strawman.
Now you didn't say infected, you said exposed to. That probability might be closer to 100% depending on your definition of exposure. Exposure does not equal infection.
What we're really looking at is the probability of being exposed, and then the probability of being infected given an exposure. We're pretty settled on the fact that omicron spreads more easily, so given an exposure, you're more likely to be infected. With more people being infected, you're going to have more opportunities for exposure, which will lead to more infections, which will lead to more exposures, and so on...
Again, we know that there have been something like 60 million covid cases in the US, so the probability of being infected is well below 100% (it's actually less than 20% if you just go with the simple probability). Let's say omicron increases that to 30% or 40% or 50% (we have no way of knowing yet what it will be), at some point, the increased number of infections will lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.
Does that make sense?
It's not as mild as people are making it out to be. It really hasn't hit hospitalizations upstate where you are at, but it is already impacting New York City and Long Island. New York City saw a 130% rise in hospitalizations between Christmas Eve and New Years Eve and has more people hospitalized with COVID currently than the peak of last winter (and I am guessing that most of the new hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated individuals based upon data from Ontario).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/nyregion/hospitals-ny-covid.html
And as we discovered in the first wave of COVID, what happens in the Northeast eventually makes its way to the rest of the country.

I believe that per case, hospitalizations are still lower than delta, but because there are more cases, there are more hospitalizations. As you say though, it's still early.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:00pm EST

re: i am so confused

i am so confused wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And furthermore, he added: "“I’m still very concerned about the tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated at all because even though many of them are going to get asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, a fair number of them are going to get severe disease,”
I hope this helps.
Nobody should be “concerned” about the unvaccinated. They aren’t concerned about themselves, and I’m sick of public policy making like miserable for the majority to protect an ignorant minority.

"I'm sick of public policy making life miserable for the majority to protect an ignorant minority. "<<<<<<THERE IS HOPE FOR LIBERALS!

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:15pm EST

re: joed|rttt

joed|rttt wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
Well you've got a bit of a strawman argument going here, and we'll have to agree on definitions.
One part of the risk calculation that I didn't mention was time. To use an example from an endemic disease, you're chances of having the flu at some point in your life is essentially 100%. Basically everyone gets the flu at some point, and many people get it multiple times. The probability of you getting the flu in any given period of time is considerably less than 100%.
There are many people both vaccinated and unvaccinated who have never been infected with covid, so we know the probability is not 100%. That's strawman.
Now you didn't say infected, you said exposed to. That probability might be closer to 100% depending on your definition of exposure. Exposure does not equal infection.
What we're really looking at is the probability of being exposed, and then the probability of being infected given an exposure. We're pretty settled on the fact that omicron spreads more easily, so given an exposure, you're more likely to be infected. With more people being infected, you're going to have more opportunities for exposure, which will lead to more infections, which will lead to more exposures, and so on...
Again, we know that there have been something like 60 million covid cases in the US, so the probability of being infected is well below 100% (it's actually less than 20% if you just go with the simple probability). Let's say omicron increases that to 30% or 40% or 50% (we have no way of knowing yet what it will be), at some point, the increased number of infections will lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.
Does that make sense?
It's not as mild as people are making it out to be. It really hasn't hit hospitalizations upstate where you are at, but it is already impacting New York City and Long Island. New York City saw a 130% rise in hospitalizations between Christmas Eve and New Years Eve and has more people hospitalized with COVID currently than the peak of last winter (and I am guessing that most of the new hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated individuals based upon data from Ontario).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/nyregion/hospitals-ny-covid.html
And as we discovered in the first wave of COVID, what happens in the Northeast eventually makes its way to the rest of the country.

Delta started in the NE? ?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:24pm EST

And overwhelmingly the unvaxxed are getting Delta and are stuffing up the hospitals, but go ahead and blame this on vaccinated people

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:34pm EST

re: EpiRunner

Omicron is generally asymptomatic and when not, nothing more than a cold.

Why would hospitalizations go up for this?

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:40pm EST

re: carmine9

carmine9 wrote:
Omicron is generally asymptomatic and when not, nothing more than a cold.
Why would hospitalizations go up for this?

I already explained why in this thread and every other thread I've engaged with you in.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 3:58pm EST

re: EpiRunner

EpiRunner wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
Omicron is generally asymptomatic and when not, nothing more than a cold.
Why would hospitalizations go up for this?
I already explained why in this thread and every other thread I've engaged with you in.

Seeing as how I have never before posed this question, I doubt that.

Why don't you quickly summarize? If you actually have answered this before ought to be easy

4 years ago 01/03/2022 4:03pm EST

re: carmine9

Hospitals test ALL patients. If a patient tests positive for COVID but is in the hospital for something other than COVID then they are listed as a COVID hospitalization. Please take the time to understand how the wording impacts everything. VERY easy to see how such an easily spread virus would cause the statistics to go through the roof for people that are hospitalized with COVID.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 4:08pm EST

re: putty

putty wrote:
Hospitals test ALL patients. If a patient tests positive for COVID but is in the hospital for something other than COVID then they are listed as a COVID hospitalization. Please take the time to understand how the wording impacts everything. VERY easy to see how such an easily spread virus would cause the statistics to go through the roof for people that are hospitalized with COVID.

Fauci admitted as much on tv this week-end.

The number of people in the hospital testing positive for Covid is obviously going way up.

But are total hospitalizations going up? That is what the Vaxx lovers are claiming. If so, why? Is it typical of the season? Is it due to other things that are going around? Vaccine injuries? It's not omicron, that's for sure

4 years ago 01/03/2022 4:10pm EST

re: carmine9

carmine9 wrote:
putty wrote:
Hospitals test ALL patients. If a patient tests positive for COVID but is in the hospital for something other than COVID then they are listed as a COVID hospitalization. Please take the time to understand how the wording impacts everything. VERY easy to see how such an easily spread virus would cause the statistics to go through the roof for people that are hospitalized with COVID.
Fauci admitted as much on tv this week-end.
The number of people in the hospital testing positive for Covid is obviously going way up.
But are total hospitalizations going up? That is what the Vaxx lovers are claiming. If so, why? Is it typical of the season? Is it due to other things that are going around? Vaccine injuries? It's not omicron, that's for sure

ICU numbers are starting to surge. That can't be explained away by assuming all hospitalizations are with covid and not from it.

4 years ago 01/03/2022 4:13pm EST

re: troll_69

troll_69 wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
[quote]putty wrote:
Hospitals test ALL patients. If a patient tests positive for COVID but is in the hospital for something other than COVID then they are listed as a COVID hospitalization. Please take the time to understand how the wording impacts everything. VERY easy to see how such an easily spread virus would cause the statistics to go through the roof for people that are hospitalized with COVID.
Fauci admitted as much on tv this week-end.
The number of people in the hospital testing positive for Covid is obviously going way up.
But are total hospitalizations going up? That is what the Vaxx lovers are claiming. If so, why? Is it typical of the season? Is it due to other things that are going around? Vaccine injuries? It's not omicron, that's for sure

ICU numbers are starting to surge.

Where did you get that info? Any data? Out of the ordinary for the season?

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