Would Newbury Park have won D3?

Stanford finished 5th. These are there actual track times from 2021. Their HS times are not relevant whether 13:20 or 14:20 or 15:20. That would be like comparing the JH times for the NP guys rather than their current times. NP would be lucky to have 1 guy make their top 7. You are the most stubborn poster here. Look at the data.

ATHLETE YEAR TIME MEET MEET DATE

26 Hicks, Charles FR-1 13:33.89 NCAA Division I Track & Field Championships Jun 9, 2021

33 Parsons, Alek JR-3 13:36.52 West Coast Classic - Oregon Apr 17, 2021

34 Bolger, Callum SO-2 13:39.32 West Coast Classic - Oregon Apr 17, 2021

45 Boyden, Thomas FR-1 13:42.63 Pac-12 Track & Field Championships May 14, 2021

52 Sprout, Cole FR-1 13:43.92 Stanford Invitational Apr 2, 2021

58 Hart, Devin FR-1 13:45.38 West Coast Classic - Oregon Apr 17, 2021

87 Principe, D.J. SO-2 13:49.26 Stanford Invitational Apr 2, 2021

101 Robinson, Ky FR-1 13:51.53 Stanford Invitational Apr 2, 2021

112 Beaudoin-Rousseau, Meika FR-1 13:52.77 Pac-12 Track & Field Championships May 14, 2021

162 Burke, Evan FR-1 13:58.09 Stanford Invitational Apr 2, 2021

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

I'm going back to my original post and will leave it at that.

They actually should be able to beat many college teams at all levels...very few D3 teams get sub 9:00 3200 m kids as recruits and even many D1 programs rarely get sub 9:00 kids.

Yes 8k would be a stretch but this team is loaded with talent!

I do hope they run Foot Locker just to see how many they can qualify and see how those guys stack up against the rest of the country.

They're not taking on recruits, though. They are taking on guys who have been training for multiple years for a different event (8K) and at higher mileage. So, it's irrelevant to worry about if their HS PRs are better than D3 kids. They obviously are/were but the top 5 at D3 nationals would trounce their high school selves. Rereading Running with the Buffaloes and by your logic the prize recruit Steve Slattery should've been a major factor for Colorado right away as a stud HS recruit, yet he struggled to keep up with guys he would've smoked in high school (but who'd adjusted/thrived under college training like Friedberg).

Yes they literally ran a track 5000 almost exactly a year ago. colin and lex 14:27, leo 14:49, aaron 15:17. They’ve obviously improved greatly since.

To demonstrate that, roughly 13 months ago, they all ran desert twilight in high 14s to low 15s. Now they’re all running 14 mid at woodward. For context, leo daschbach ran 14:30 at clovis and the number 3 all time xc 5k at desert twilight (14:14.3).

They’ve all taken upwards of 30 seconds off their xc times on a harder course in a year.

Or we could just look at woodbridge times which were 2 months ago and convert to 14;09-14:19 on grass without spikes.

Would they win d3? Probably not. A dual meet against the top d3 teams? Much better chance

Carmody is in Notre Dame's top 5. He ran 9:17 in HS but has run 13:40 in college and is beating footlocker champs on his own team.

It is embarrassing that the best HS team of all time would lose to a bunch of guys who ran 9:40 in HS.

sub 14? really? wrote:

stats and analysis wrote:

There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.

Let’s peg it to 3k times —

German 8:34 / 14:24

Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k

Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.

There's a reason every teenager these days doesn't easily break the old (and in the case of 10000m, very old) US HS records. Everyone winning a State Meet isn't necessarily an all-time great. Are 4 of these guys beyond Rupp, or even Pre at the same age? I believe not - and I'd suggest none are close to the relatively recent Lukas V.

Are these guys all going to be galen rupp? No. But what do you mean they aren’t as good for their age? Nico at 18 was 13 seconds faster than rupp over 5k, and probably 20ish over 10k assuming he could’ve stayed with abdi when he was pacing him. Galen is an all time great but why are we pretending he was some untouchable world beater at 16? Unless i’m misinterpreting what you mean by “at the same age”

Engineer of Plates wrote:

Wartburg is the best team in D3 and they were ranked 1st all year while being undefeated. Not many would claim that NP could compete with them. They finished 9th at nationals. So NP would likley have been outside the top 10.

so the 9th best team in xc(Wartburg D3) this year had #5 runner times of last track season.

1500m 3:57

5000m 14:50

10000m 31:31

Indoor

Mile 4:15

3000m 8:41

5000m 15:05

While Newbury Park #5 last track ran

1600m 4:14

3200m 9:10

NAIA champions Milligan had #5 runner performances of

10,000m 31:45

5000m 14:50

1500 4:00

3k indoors 8:55

mile 4:29

D2 Grand valley state's #5 10k runner ran 30:05 and 5k 14:13

so safe to say Newbury Park most likely wouldn't win any college championships

NP's 5th guy ran 8:56 in May last year. They are all even stronger now and would destroy any DIII school in cross country. Sorry it wouldn't even close.

Yes, NBP would crush Wartburg's all-time team, with one 14 guy and a bunch of 14:20s, one guy sub 30. This is a great high school team, and great high school runners will be about as good or better than top D3 runners. Even Ian LaMere with 28:38 would be beaten by the American hs record holder at 10k, Rudy Chapa (28:32). This Newbury Park team will have more than one sub 8:40 2M guys this year, and probably five sub 9 and maybe even four sub 8:50, those guys being so close to each other, Sahlmans and Youngs. By the way, Wartburg's all-time lists have a number of brothers and sisters too.

I'm starting to think that the "NP would win" crowd are the same people who believe that the college football national champions would beat the worst NFL team.

And comparing to Wartburg isn't relevant. The questions is whether NP would WIN the D3 finals.

Can someone tell me what place they think NP's fifth man would have finished in the D3 finals, and then what would the front four have to do to make up for it? (When you realize that he would have scored more than 80 points, you then realize that the first four are only adding on to a score that is too high to win.) Even if they went 1, 2, 3, 4 (which they wouldn't), he has to be 69th, which he wouldn't be.

Enjoy it now. It ain't going to last. Once this group graduates NP will come down to earth, they'll still be a great team but nothing like the current group.

And for the record, this group wouldn't win or podium at D-1, D-2, or D-3 at the 8K/10K distance. It's interesting how people on this thread (clearly have never been competitive runners) think you can just dismiss the additional 3000m (for 8K) and 5000m (for 10k) of a race and believe NP or anyone other high school team or club can just keep the "same" 5K pace and win. Again, these kids are "Maxed Out" at the 5K distance (as they should be).

A coach out in California made a great comparison between 5K and 10K at Woodward Park. Back in the 80's Woodward Park hosted the NCAA West Regional qualifier (District 8 back then) at 10K for NCAA Champs. Not sure what year it was, but the winning 10K time (they ran the Woodward Park 5k twice) was 29:40 which equates to 14:50 x 2. The average time for the collegiate runners who ran the West Regional and who also ran at Woodward Park in high school was 15:00-15:30. Doing some quick math and adjusting times, The Newbury Park Top 4 would need to run back to back 14:40-15:10. Do you really think they could do this? No "Freakin" Way! They're simply not strong enough.

The only comparison you could make is if NP ran against a D-3 school at the 5K distance. This could possibly be a good race team-wise.

It was pointed out that the 79, 80, and 81st finishers are faster than NP's 5th.

Tougher than running wrote:

It was pointed out that the 79, 80, and 81st finishers are faster than NP's 5th.

No. One of those dudes ran 14:39 5k..which is far inferior to an 8:56 3200.

they would have no chance mainly because their #5 would score over 100 points alone. the first freshman at d3 nats ran for Williams and he finished 19th. He ran 8:57 in hs. being very generous and saying they all have great days in a massive field, NP 1-4 could maybe go something like 3, 4, 6, 8 for a 21 point total but their #5 destroys them. The 19th place runner in this meet ran 8:57 last year.

Tougher than running wrote:

It was pointed out that the 79, 80, and 81st finishers are faster than NP's 5th.

but look at 29, 30, 31 - I just grabbed those at random...4:20 -4:24 milers, 8:39-8:41 3kers, and a 15:19 5k...so what does that say about these guys over your example?!?!?

yungweej wrote:

they would have no chance mainly because their #5 would score over 100 points alone. the first freshman at d3 nats ran for Williams and he finished 19th. He ran 8:57 in hs. being very generous and saying they all have great days in a massive field, NP 1-4 could maybe go something like 3, 4, 6, 8 for a 21 point total but their #5 destroys them. The 19th place runner in this meet ran 8:57 last year.

All of Pomona’s guys are disgustingly slow on the track.

First man - 3:55 1500 (fun fact: this is #9 all time at their school)

Second man - 3:57 1500/14:39

Third - 3:58 1500

Fourth - 8:32 / 14:54

Fifth - 1:51 / 3:50 / 8:41 3k

I think you all are vastly underestimating their 5th man. He has a been a little off this year but even still, he finished 11 seconds behind an 8:51 3200 (8:13/14 3k) guy from last season who has probably gotten better.

If I were to guess their 5k times today for NP, I’d go with 13:55, 13:57, 13:59, 14:08, 14:30

I think that’s enough to get it done at d3 but not 100%. It would be close.

Very few D3 schools have five guys that can run sub 15:00 5k on the track, or sub 9:00 on the track...that was what I was pointing out. Many D3 schools don't have that on their ALL TIME LISTS! I could argue the same for D1, because there are plenty of weak D1 programs that NEVER get a single 9:00 high school runner and many that do that don't do a good job of developing them.

How the NP kids would do at 8k is debatable, but they are a super talented high school team.

stats and analysis wrote:

If I were to guess their 5k times today for NP, I’d go with 13:55, 13:57, 13:59, 14:08, 14:30

I think that’s enough to get it done at d3 but not 100%. It would be close.

If NP could truly run those times (and I hesitate to say they could) AND they could maintain those times for an additional 3k (which is a lot harder than you think) AND they all were able to run their very best times on that specific day (which would never happen) then they might possibly, and I mean by the skin of their teeth be able to beat that Pomona team. But that is the fun part of racing. No team ever has everyone race perfectly at the college level. Ask Wartburg this year or Williams in 2019. Something always goes wrong, someone doesn't finish, or sprains an ankle, or was sick two weeks before and was "off". Its racing. Which is why in all likelihood, NP could not win D3 Nationals. It would take an absolutely perfect effort on a day that is notorious for things not going perfect.

I truly believe they would be competitive, they might even podium, but I think if you are being realistic and honest, they aren't quite there yet.

NC State Insider wrote:

It is embarrassing that the best HS team of all time would lose to a bunch of guys who ran 9:40 in HS.

Lol what's up with the narrative that only 9:40 guys go D3? I know of multiple people who ran sub (or low) 9 for 3200, and others who ran around 4:10 for 1600 that went D3.