Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen in Tokyo

AP5000 wrote:

Hocker has run 335 as his PR. That would have had him finish 11th in Doha.

The top 5 in Doha finished under 332. The winning time was 329.

The most recent world championship race was not tactical. The Olympic 1500 final will not be tactical this time.

Hocker will be dropped in the final if he can even make the final.

You don't predict finals on PBs.

Timothy Cheruiyot is not in the field. Who is making this 1500m fast like he did?

Btw, Hocker's 7 second gap with Jakob I translates to a 26 second gap in the 5000 meters. Except the real life gap is larger 12:48 to 13:20 (32 seconds).

Who would say someone 31-32 seconds slower than the fastest guys has a shot at beating them?

Jakob I will just run Hocker into the ground. Hocker can't come close to matching his speed, jakob won't die because he's an absurdly fast 5,000 guy and he flat out can out kick Hocker.

This obsession with Hocker's kick needs to stop. He won't be in any position to do anything with the kick in the Olympic final because he'll be too far back from the world class runners.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

This was a nice effort to kick in 51 seconds in a 3:40 race, but Hocker can kick in 52 in a 3:35 race this isn't some crazy feat in comparison.

51.2 in a 3:40 race > 52.5 in a 3:35 race.

Hocker has yet to close ANY race in 51. Again, bet on known, not unknown.

You can absolutely predict a final based on PR from perspective of who will be there at the end. All of the guys who finished in the top 5 in Doha have times FASTER than the winning time.

AP5000 wrote:

Btw, Hocker's 7 second gap with Jakob I translates to a 26 second gap in the 5000 meters. Except the real life gap is larger 12:48 to 13:20 (32 seconds).

Who would say someone 31-32 seconds slower than the fastest guys has a shot at beating them?

Jakob I will just run Hocker into the ground. Hocker can't come close to matching his speed, jakob won't die because he's an absurdly fast 5,000 guy and he flat out can out kick Hocker.

This obsession with Hocker's kick needs to stop. He won't be in any position to do anything with the kick in the Olympic final because he'll be too far back from the world class runners.

Hocker's 5,000 PR of 13:18.95 was less than 2 hours after winning the NCAA 1500 with the 1:48 last 800.

Honest question. Would you have said the same thing about Centro in 2016? I am not saying it is a likely outcome but a guy who can close in 12.2 in a tactical 3:35 race can't be completely discounted.

That said, if someone like Jakob lets it come to that its his own damn fault.

FastTuohy wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

Btw, Hocker's 7 second gap with Jakob I translates to a 26 second gap in the 5000 meters. Except the real life gap is larger 12:48 to 13:20 (32 seconds).

Who would say someone 31-32 seconds slower than the fastest guys has a shot at beating them?

Jakob I will just run Hocker into the ground. Hocker can't come close to matching his speed, jakob won't die because he's an absurdly fast 5,000 guy and he flat out can out kick Hocker.

This obsession with Hocker's kick needs to stop. He won't be in any position to do anything with the kick in the Olympic final because he'll be too far back from the world class runners.

Hocker's 5,000 PR of 13:18.95 was less than 2 hours after winning the NCAA 1500 with the 1:48 last 800.

+1. It is abundantly clear to everyone that Hocker has never TT'd a 1500 or a 5000 at this point. Not saying he is capable of running 3:30 but that 3:35 is clearly soft given the way in which he can run that time.

AP5000 wrote:

You can absolutely predict a final based on PR from perspective of who will be there at the end. All of the guys who finished in the top 5 in Doha have times FASTER than the winning time.

Look at the 2012 and 2016 Olympic finals. Did Manzano, Willis and Centrowitz have the fastest PBs coming in?

Jakob's speed is underrated because he makes it look so easy. But I don't think he has hocker's last 100 kind of speed. MOST DON'T. Last 400 in a 3:32-34 kind of race? I don't know. What has Jakob shown on those types of races? Does anybody have the numbers?

Jakob really should be trying to turn this race into a time trial. He has shown himself to be easily and consistently faster than every miler not named Tim C. over the past 2 years.

He should make his attempt at Bislett this week without pacers to see what he is capable of in a solo run.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

51.2 in a 3:40 race > 52.5 in a 3:35 race.

Hocker has yet to close ANY race in 51. Again, bet on known, not unknown.

He hasn't been in a race quite like that. 1100 slow, all-out 400. Fair enough if you want to give Kerr/Wightman an edge because you've seen it, but we just don't know.

I didn't say they had the fastest PBs of the group, I said their PBs were all after than the winning time.

That means they are capable of winning without it having to be their fastest time. Until he does otherwise, hocker can only run 335. You are only as good as your last race.

This Olympic final will be fast. It will be like Doha. A 335 guy is simply going to be out classed by the fleet of 328 to 333 guys ahead of him.

There is simply no chance that Jakob I is going to risk losing an olympic gold medal to a fast kick guy who can't, until otherwise proven, run within 7 seconds of him. 7 seconds is a lifetime in the 1500.

What possible reason would Jakob I (or any of the other 330 to 331 guys) run a slow tactical race? There is absolutely no incentive to do that and risk getting kicked. You don't think they watched this US trial and gathered intel on their competitors?

Hocker went into last night's race with a PB that was middle-of-pack and he emerged beating everyone including the guy with a 3:30 PB with a new PB in a race where nobody else came close to hitting their PBs. Huh, kinda crazy. Maybe you should have a think on that.

AP5000 wrote:

There is simply no chance that Jakob I is going to risk losing an olympic gold medal to a fast kick guy who can't, until otherwise proven, run within 7 seconds of him. 7 seconds is a lifetime in the 1500.

What possible reason would Jakob I (or any of the other 330 to 331 guys) run a slow tactical race? There is absolutely no incentive to do that and risk getting kicked. You don't think they watched this US trial and gathered intel on their competitors?

I think it’s absolutely crazy to think Hocker is “only” a 334-335 guy. He clearly had a huge amount left in the tank and has run massive negative splits in each of his last 2 finals, not to mention the 332-333 equivalent indoors. No mere 334-335 guy in the history of track has ever ran the kind of races cole has ran. Setting aside the final time and looking at the performances holistically, it’s very clear he’s in 330-331 shape today in a time trial type race, which is more or less the slowest PRs of anyone that has ever demonstrated the type of capability cole has (and many sub 330 guys through history would not have been able to replicate cole’s performance).

Like it or not, and despite not having the PR today to reflect it, cole is absolutely a world class 1500 runner and credible medal threat. I think in general, people need to stop obsessing over time trial PRs and utilize the eye test. As history has shown more often than not, its racing ability that wins medals, not PRs. Maybe he flames out in the heats after a long season and can’t match his trials performance, but I think a medal here would be less of a surprise than Manzano’s silver was heading into the 2012 olympics, as well as Centro’s first medals.

Centro and Hocker both have that je ne sais quoi that is takes to medal at a global final...

We haven't seen that yet from Jakob.

There is no world that exists that Hocker is in 330 to 331 shape. You have lost your mind. If he was in that shape he would have been faster than 335. He about killed himself to run 335. Is he faster than 335? Probably a little. Until he does it he's a 335 guy.

Jakob is only 9 months older than Hocker

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Hocker went into last night's race with a PB that was middle-of-pack and he emerged beating everyone including the guy with a 3:30 PB with a new PB in a race where nobody else came close to hitting their PBs. Huh, kinda crazy. Maybe you should have a think on that.

You surely don't mean Centro's 3:30 PB? I mean anyone in that race would have beaten 3:29 PB Nick Willis.

Entire mid-pack at the US trials (including Engels) ran 2-3 seconds slower than their SBs. So if we are being generous, we can assume that Hocker and Centro also could run 2-3s fast then they did at the trials. That's how we get to 3:32-3:33.

What global final has Hocker medaled in?