They are not cancelling.
The polls are posturing safety to the outside world because 'social harmony' dictates people here must. Social harmony rules all in Japan. That's why the numbers are so high. Now replace "safety" and "science" with xenophobia and you'll be in the realm of reality. The social harmony is xenophobia, and has little to do with the Olympics or safety.
Covid variants are already here, passed around by Japanese. The hypocrisy is moot.
And Japan already has sporting events much larger and more dangerous taking place during the pandemic. Hakone Ekiden (a collegiate long distance running relay) was unchanged. It went off as normal in January. Millions of spectators lining the streets, 3-4 people deep in many spots… For miles and miles and miles. It was not altered in the slightest from a safety perspective. Crowds were completely unmonitored and uncontrolled, albeit that event is impossible to enforce logistically (and culturally).
The Olympics would be different because..... foreigners! I just watched a wtcs triathlon (triathlon olympians) in Yokohama on May 15th. Athletes couldn’t leave the hotel the entire week before and were only let out to recon the course the day before. It was a prison experience. They were being delivered garbage, ready made bulk meals. Check Instagrams of top short course triathletes to see the treatment all non-Japanese Olympians will get.
If the Olympics go down, it will be a prison like experience. That triathlon was another trial run for dealing with foreign athletes. Based on that test event, I’m certain there’ll be no opening ceremony. And many other Olympic esk experiences will not exist. Will there even be an athlete village? I highly doubt it.
Also the severe restrictions will create a performance advantage for Japanese athletes. While other athletes are confined to their rooms with essentially no freedom of movement, Japanese will have normal conditions.
If you make the team, don’t come to Japan until a day or two before your race. You will be incarcerated in a hotel room, and followed everywhere, just like tourists in North Korea. That happened the entire week before May 15th to the world’s best triathletes. All their Instagram posts were looking out their hotel room window, like wtf, or in a large conference room of the hotel where they had bike trainers set up. They had ample treadmills there but the movement restrictions and constant monitoring were very stressful. At the triathlon, each athlete had a watcher. They were ushered back to the hotel after the race.
Better to make a base in a nearby country and avoid Japan as long as possible. It will be a very forgettable experience and one to be avoided. Come, race, leave…
Japan does next to nothing for safety. The posturing here is extremely hypocritical. I've been in Tokyo the entire pandemic. Face masks are the only thing Japan does. It's not working. Packed trains and crowded shopping with no social distancing have been the norm the entire time. Japan has been hiding from responsibility. It's biting them now with massive revenue losses.
No re-entry for long term residents? Wow. I hope this clears up in 2 years before my visa expiration. If long termers aren't allowed back, I have no chance...