who do you guys think will win NXN this year? early predictions thread

west west wrote:

runnER/DR wrote:

Rheinhardt Harrison. End of discussion.

3rd best returning 3200 time, so far.

13th best returning XC speed rating.

I missed where “close to running sub 4 mile” = “lock to win national XC meet against others guys who are faster in XC and pretty good at the mile too”

Why no discussion?

You missed that part because nobody said it.

Not sure what you mean when you ask why there is no discussion, in a discussion where it is being talked about.

Harrison is an elite level talent in both XC and track. That is fact at this point. You seem to be diminishing his credentials purely based on the fact that.....well no facts actually. He hasn't ran a FL or NXN regional before but he has dominated his state meet multiple years in a row. And he has nearly broken 4 which is an indication he has more finishing speed than anyone in the field.

Cole Hocker wasn't on anyones radar most of the season. Never broke 15 his senior year in XC. But he was dominating every race. Went to the regionals and dominated there too. Went to nattys and dominated there too. I'm pretty sure Cole Hocker had never attempted running nationals until senior year, much like Harrison.

Speed ratings are trivial anyway. If you are making predictions based on speed ratings from previous year, you are wrong probably 90% of the time.

Me

Not meaning to diminish him. He is obviously one of the very best and looks like he will be a star for years to come.

At least 6 guys will be returning this fall having run sub 8:50 in the spring, around 30 sub 9, and some have run faster than him at each track distance longer than the 800. It isn’t like his PRs are are 10 seconds ahead of everyone else, so I was just commenting that he isn’t so far ahead that we are just debating who will be second best this fall.

He certainly could dominate his XC races this fall like Nico or Cole, but that is far from certain right now.

hatpackats wrote:

Predictions wrote:

Here are the boys teams that I think will autoqualify for NXN if NXN happens

Northwest - Jesuit/Lincoln

Heartland - Wayzata/Sioux City North

California - Newbury Park/Great Oak

Midwest - Columbus North/Brebeuf Jesuit Prep

Southeast - Pace Academy/Marietta

Northeast - Ridge/North Allegheny

South - Grapevine/Southlake Carroll

Southwest - Cheyenne Mountain/Mountain Vista

New York - Burnt Hills/FM

Conroe the Woodlands could possibly on there granted they have a good line up.

Agreed. I’ve actually mentioned before that I changed my pick from Grapevine/Southlake Carroll to Grapevine/The Woodlands to qualify from the South

Predictions wrote:

I will also change the NY boys pick to autoqualify for NXN from Burnt Hills/FM to Burnt Hills/Corning.

The cupboard for FM is bare now. Corning returns 5 guys under 17 for 5K, and 5 guys under 10:15 (3 under 9:45) for 3200. FM returns almost no one under 17 minutes for 5k.

I agree with this.

FM has developed guys out of nowhere before, but they're going to have to essentially develop a whole team this time. Plus, they've always had at least one stud guy to "set the bar" for the team. Doesn't look like they have that, going into the season.

Their girls look surprisingly weak (for them), as well. NY girls team depth isn't what it used to be, so they'll likely qualify... but no threat to make any noise in Portland.

Erik Le Roux from Cheyenne Mountain CO is another guy that could make some noise. 3rd nonsenior finisher at RunningLane XC championships. Also fastest sophomore finisher at 2019 NXR Southwest.

His team is looking to be solid too.

Don’t forget about Zane Bergen from Niwot. 2nd nonsenior finisher at RunningLane XC championships.

NY XC Guy wrote:

Predictions wrote:

I will also change the NY boys pick to autoqualify for NXN from Burnt Hills/FM to Burnt Hills/Corning.

The cupboard for FM is bare now. Corning returns 5 guys under 17 for 5K, and 5 guys under 10:15 (3 under 9:45) for 3200. FM returns almost no one under 17 minutes for 5k.

I agree with this.

FM has developed guys out of nowhere before, but they're going to have to essentially develop a whole team this time. Plus, they've always had at least one stud guy to "set the bar" for the team. Doesn't look like they have that, going into the season.

Their girls look surprisingly weak (for them), as well. NY girls team depth isn't what it used to be, so they'll likely qualify... but no threat to make any noise in Portland.

One best thing that FM’s girls team could possibly do this coming season is get on the podium because of how young they are and how their coaching is.

Saratoga Springs and Cherry Creek are pretty much favorites to be 1st and 2nd at NXN. 3rd spot on the podium is wide open for a lot of teams.

NY XC Guy wrote:

Predictions wrote:

I will also change the NY boys pick to autoqualify for NXN from Burnt Hills/FM to Burnt Hills/Corning.

The cupboard for FM is bare now. Corning returns 5 guys under 17 for 5K, and 5 guys under 10:15 (3 under 9:45) for 3200. FM returns almost no one under 17 minutes for 5k.

I agree with this.

FM has developed guys out of nowhere before, but they're going to have to essentially develop a whole team this time. Plus, they've always had at least one stud guy to "set the bar" for the team. Doesn't look like they have that, going into the season.

Their girls look surprisingly weak (for them), as well. NY girls team depth isn't what it used to be, so they'll likely qualify... but no threat to make any noise in Portland.

They return Karcher, Amack, Luchetti, Sullivan, and Sydorowych. They have all run sub 4:45, sub 10:15, or sub 7:35 (or more than one of the above). I think they will be closer to Saratoga than expected depending on who Saratoga actually has out (their best freshman didn't run track and didn't seriously run XC ) and healthy (the Wheeler twins are not bulletproof).

One of the Wheeler twins did not run a race at all last XC season.

Section2XC wrote:

NY XC Guy wrote:

I agree with this.

FM has developed guys out of nowhere before, but they're going to have to essentially develop a whole team this time. Plus, they've always had at least one stud guy to "set the bar" for the team. Doesn't look like they have that, going into the season.

Their girls look surprisingly weak (for them), as well. NY girls team depth isn't what it used to be, so they'll likely qualify... but no threat to make any noise in Portland.

They return Karcher, Amack, Luchetti, Sullivan, and Sydorowych. They have all run sub 4:45, sub 10:15, or sub 7:35 (or more than one of the above). I think they will be closer to Saratoga than expected depending on who Saratoga actually has out (their best freshman didn't run track and didn't seriously run XC ) and healthy (the Wheeler twins are not bulletproof).

Only 3 of those girls have ever run faster than a 110 speed-rating. Sullivan looks to have some good upside, but Amack and Sydorowych have pretty much plateaued. Absent a major influx of talent, Saratoga would have to take a major step backwards for it to be a competitive race.

I've heard that all the best teams are going to go to RXC, why go run on these crappy courses where there's barriers to entry when you can come run on the best course in the country in Huntsville, Alabama

For the Heartland Region on the boys side:

It will be a fight between Wayzata (MN), Sioux City North (IA), Stevens Point (WI), and St Thomas Aquinas (KS) for the 2 spots to qualify for NXN.

New Berry Park may do something super special this fall if they all have a very good day,

They can approach the 1981 UTEP NCAA score of 17 points, 90% after all individuals are counted out and maybe 50% chance counting all the individuals. It’s a tall task, but they have the talent to do it.

Their very young runners ran well in rainy conditions in 2019 so I don’t see the weather or course holding them back.

For the Southeast region on the girls side, it will be a fight between Weddington, Cuthbertson (both from NC), JL Mann from SC, and Bolles from FL for the 2 NXN qualifying spots.

IMG Academy from FL is a darkhorse. Their 1-3 will be solid, but their 4/5 need to step up.

This is assuming that they get no solid transfers like they did last year.

Any news (or hints) on NXN and the Regionals? I still see "TBD" when I look for anything official regarding NXN for 2021.

Well last year it was announced on July 16, 2020 that it was canceled. So I guess we might find out this July if it will happen…

Colin6_9_ wrote:

Jesuits definitely going, watch out for them they are definitely going to place top 3, but I don’t know where you pulled Lincoln out of their graduating their only national class guy this year and then have one 8:35 3k guy another guy barely under 9 and then i have no idea. No way they make it. I would say someone like Camas or the school Isaac Teeples goes to will make it, or some dark horse from Wyoming or Idaho. What’s more interesting is that the west is so stacked this year that we could potentially have very quality fields at both NXN and Footlocker, a rare occursnce with the messed up regional dates.

One boys team from the Northwest that could have some dark horse potential to qualify is Hamilton from Montana. They finished as the top team in Montana last fall and had no seniors. All 7 were juniors.

Down with OCC wrote:

OregonDucker wrote:

I agree with "ummm no"

They wont even win their league title

Here is Oaks Christian's best mile times:

Payton Godsey 5:00.13

Grace Geyer 5:15.42

Sarah Colebrooke 5:22.36

Kate Walker 5:31.55

Gianna Sanchez 5:35.49

Now lets get back to reality

All freshmen and rumor has it they are getting another girl that will slot in between #1 and #2. They will win their league and be a player on the state stage, with a good chance at NXN. They are starting to get the recruits Newbury was getting.

Jserra Catholic and Buchanan has the best top 5 returning 1600 times…

1 JSerra Catholic (SS) (CA) 268

1) Georgia Jeanneret 4:56.04 11

2) Anastasia Snodgrass 5:01.55 26

3) Brooke O'Brien 5:04.87 39

4) Ashlee Gallegos 5:12.01 82

5) Cameron Murphy 5:16.37 110

Average Time: 5:06.17 Total Time: 25:30.84 1-5 Split: 20.33

6) Lauren Moro 5:19.34 140

7) Ellie Johnson 5:23.06 187

2 Buchanan High School (CS) (CA) 324

1) Sydney Sundgren 4:49.67 6

2) Grace Hutchison 4:55.46 10

3) Kaylee Elliott 5:10.64 68

4) Caroline Mendyk 5:12.18 84

5) Stefania Sesock 5:20.91 156

Average Time: 5:05.77 Total Time: 25:28.86 1-5 Split: 31.24

6) Macee Buckley 5:37.59 379

7) Korin Meyer 5:42.85 466

On the NW Eagle Island course, NXN qualifying teams typically have their slowest scoring runner finish around 16:20 with most of the top 5 having prior PRs closer to 16 or under. Montana has had some great teams in the past and it’s be good to see it again, but that’s a lot of speed for schools that aren’t really big.. I looked and Hamilton has under 600 kids.