Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I think Wavelight will be a huge advantage in any effectively solo run—especially below 1:55.

Unfairly huge, actually.

The bigger advantage would be doping, and we would be unlikely to know. Most are never caught.

think first wrote:

Hard to impress. Remind me your PBs?

Bad Wigins wrote:

You mean, 1 second off the under-18 world record? Nope.

3 seconds off Nijel Amos when he was 18? Double nope.

The fact that it's an American doesn't figure into it for me. Not a flag-waving olympics glory patriot.

I'm the only poster to solve the infamous crocodile problem without calculus, as many of the students would have had to. That's at least as solid a credential for analyzing WR potential as having been near the WR myself, which I never claimed, and doubt you have either.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Athing Mu isn't good or hoping she fails. But year after year people pile all these expectations on young athletes that never quite get there. Time will tell.

Well since I ran 1:54 myself, I think I have some idea what it would take to run 1:53. Mu got very good natural speed, that's why she looks like jogging that 58/59 first lap. It's because she literally is jogging, as her stride is not stressed. But she doesn't run it faster as she is afraid of that second lap, that's a common problem for speed based runners. They're afraid of that specific pain, which second lap of 800m brings. Krato solved this with doping, Mu, however, will have to do it through honest strength training. Good way to grow strength is to train for 1500m. Therefore I'm a strong believer, that if Mu lowers her PB to ca. 4:05 while keeping her 50s 400m speed, she will get to the 800m WR level. And if you that good in math, you will come up with a function / formula to show and measure her correlation between 400m - 800m - 1500m.

Bad Wigins wrote:

I'm the only poster to solve the infamous crocodile problem without calculus, as many of the students would have had to. That's at least as solid a credential for analyzing WR potential as having been near the WR myself, which I never claimed, and doubt you have either.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Athing Mu isn't good or hoping she fails. But year after year people pile all these expectations on young athletes that never quite get there. Time will tell.

think first wrote:

Krato solved this with doping, Mu, however, will have to do it through honest strength training.

Oh, of course, we'll have to assume whoever breaks the w800 WR had to do it clean. No question about that.

Bad Wigins wrote:

think first wrote:

Krato solved this with doping, Mu, however, will have to do it through honest strength training.

Oh, of course, we'll have to assume whoever breaks the w800 WR had to do it clean. No question about that.

We better hope so. If anyone would ever be able to do it clean, it would be someone like Mu. Perfect stride, tons of natural speed and no fear to run 1500m if needed. I also hope the shoes and wavelight will help.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I think Wavelight will be a huge advantage in any effectively solo run—especially below 1:55.

How so? first, of all, it does not have to be a solo run. There is a big problem getting someone to pace 3k for a 5k WR attempt because almost anyone being strong enough for such a 3k while frontrunning would have a decent shot at the 5k WR themselves. Therefore lights are a huge advantage for 5k/10k, especially for the second half without any pacers.

But it is not a huge problem to get someone to run a 56 first lap or 70 sec. 500m. Or in a serious WR attempt maybe even up to 1:25 600m (someone like Rogers without a real chance at sub 1:55 could probably pace such an attempt).

So we are talking about keeping the pace for 300m or less not for 5 or 15 laps! And the problem in the 800m in the last 100-150m ("tying up") has nothing to do with pacing. If the pacing is good for 500m, the rest is basically physiology and willpower (and for the air resistance the lights do not help anyway). How should lights have such a magic effect for the 500-650m section of the race?

I see a big time from her coming in a more evenly-split race. Sub-1:55 even split is 57.5 or better. Who will be with her? She will be out front the entire last lap.

She has good “speed”, but ultimately I see her as strength-based, and the reason she’s great is because of her great easy speed. Look at her body as it is now—super long and very thin like Rudisha, no sprint pop—relies on striding it out consistently. The thing with the lights is that it would permit her to never fall behind—because IMO she’s not an athlete who would bridge any gap with a finishing kick.

Yes she has good 200m time, but it’s not a sprinted time—it is a fast sustained run. IMO she is epically amazing for the 800, and maybe also for the 400.

Alone, in front, nobody to read off, and no kick, she needs a reference. Wavelight is it.

I expect you to have an answer to this, since I am no 800 expert: who will be with/ahead of her at 400 in 57.5 or better?

And yes many pacers could do it, but how many to 600? And who would want to be a pacer for that? They would have to be great in their own right, one of her competitors. Is the USA going to find some Kenyan-type team spirit in the 800?

I’m not seeing it, unless the money is really good—which might eventually happen if she ever goes 1:54 and shows a real shot at the record. But who, when, and where are too speculative right now—especially versus just programming the Wavelight. Easy.

mary decker didnt have athing mu's leg speed.She couldnt sprint as fast as athing,and couldnt run close to her 400 meter times.I dont know about world record potential,but if she does,so do those two namibian teenage 400 meter phenoms.Christine mboma has just run 49.22 at age 17.Altitude affected,but still jaw dropping.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

And yes many pacers could do it, but how many to 600? And who would want to be a pacer for that? They would have to be great in their own right, one of her competitors. Is the USA going to find some Kenyan-type team spirit in the 800?

I’m not seeing it, unless the money is really good—which might eventually happen if she ever goes 1:54 and shows a real shot at the record. But who, when, and where are too speculative right now—especially versus just programming the Wavelight. Easy.

I think good pacing to 600 would do it. Very few 800 records have been set off a negative split (that I am aware of - maybe just Ryun's 1.44.9 half in 1966). To break a record that is nearly 40 years old - and more than 4 seconds faster than her present best - would probably require a positive split. My pick would be 56s for the first lap and 1.24 to the 600. The last 200 is run on strength and willpower to finish at 1.53.

She probably has the core speed but it would take a huge increase in endurance to drop nearly 5 seconds on where she is now. Anything is possible, but I don't see it in a clean athlete - however talented. Massive improvements are for dopers. I still go with 1.55.

jeff tallon wrote:

mary decker didnt have athing mu's leg speed.She couldnt sprint as fast as athing,and couldnt run close to her 400 meter times.I dont know about world record potential,but if she does,so do those two namibian teenage 400 meter phenoms.Christine mboma has just run 49.22 at age 17.Altitude affected,but still jaw dropping.

Mary was likely just as fast as Mu over 200. Both have recorded 23.7. Mary never really raced the 400, so it isn't an accurate measure of her speed. However Mary undoubtedly had more endurance, given her mile-3k performances.

Apart from Jarmila, who I believe doped, no women's 400m runner is successful to the same degree over the 800. We don't see Felix, Miller-Uibo, Richards-Ross or any of the other "49ers" competing over 2 laps. It confirms that after the necessary basic speed for the distance, strength-endurance is the critical part of 800 running for women. Mu probably has the speed; the question is how much more endurance can she acquire.

Good posts, I think.

Regarding Wavelight, I think its benefit depends on the psychology of the runner using it. Some people just hate to lose, even against a row of lights.

I know zero about Mu’s psychology.

So here are two questions for you hard-core guys: what is her winning percentage over say the last 2 years at 800m, and when was the last time she did not win an 800 final she ran?

gernu wrote:

think first wrote:

You wouldn't go nuts about an 18 year old american runner with 45 / 400m and 1:44 / 800?

Always fun to see fresh talent and speculate what they could do.

How is she comparable to either 45 or 1:44? She is not.

You're right. She's better than both.

The current 1:53 record was set off a negative split.

Yeah, but by a roid monkey.

I assume Mu is clean, and will actually experience fatigue.

ana quirot from cuba.She was good at 400's and 800's.ludmila formanova and helena fuschova from the czech republic were good at both,charmaine crooks of canada,and jearl miles of usa.

Has Mu ever run 800m outdoors against a strong field? sub 1:58 solo is very strong but it's simply different against comparable opponents. Of course she can try frontrunning but she might not yet be strong enough for this. And such a tall runner with a long stride will often not be so comfortable in a pack (cf. e.g. in the long distance Klosterhalfen or McColgan)

Good point about the psychological factor of the lights, I still think 800m is too short and it will not be a problem to get decent pacing for 400-500m. Sure, it still would make a difference as the Semenya-led races showed (some 1:55-1:57 marks might not have been run otherwise) but as Mu is the solo/frontrunning type, it will not matter that much, I think.

Easy does it there VIPAM. I think we're all aware of how good she is. Yes, clearly a generational talent that can and will challenge a few records. That being said, let's not jump to WR conversations just yet, especially for the longer distances. I think 800/1500/Mile is definitely a possibility within a few years. The 5K and 10K are completely different, not saying it can't be done but I wouldn't bet on it right now.

Watching her run reminds me of the great Paul Ereng and a little bit of Rudisha. Amazing stride length and mechanics. Hopefully, she connects with a great coach and training group. She's going to be fun to watch!

"Go Run One"