Drew Hunter runs indoor 1500m PB of 3:40.37 today at NBIGP

CANCEL DREW

There's no way you can run 3:40 in your first race of the year in February and come back from that. Also does it even matter if his focus is gonna be the 5k? Write him off. Cancel him. Cancel Tinman.

Ya'll are obsessed. He stuck his nose in it through 1k & didn't have the wheels to close with that middle pack. Let's see how he does. It looks like he's gonna race twice more in the coming weeks.

` wrote:

I think you're overstating the value of his "brand". TME only has 75k followers on Instagram, not "several hundred thousand". And "selling out" is a classic marketing trick to make the items seem exclusive. I guarantee they just have an artificially low supply.

Further, the TME brand is connected with how well Drew does as a runner. If he faded into obscurity, why would high schoolers care about his merch anymore?

Finally, why do you Tinman fans continuously move the goalposts and say that Hunter isn't actually very talented? If you had mad the claim in 2016 that Hunter would max out at 3:35 and 13:17, then you would have been laughed off the boards. He's underperforming, and it's ok to admit that. Tinman is a fine amateur and high school coach; he doesn't have great a track record with elites.

Yes 75k is not huge but the followers are very loyal and buy the stuff they are selling.

No one believes that Hunter isn't extraordinarily talented. He is. Both his parents were good runners. He had an athletic childhood, and got contact with a good coach at young age.

But at the very highest levels, even small differences in talent (like VO2MAX or speed) or "injury resistance" can mean the difference between making a team or getting 10th in a race.

Fact is,

Fisher as as good/better than Hunter at 50 mpw vs 70-75 mpw.

Hobbs Kessler is as good/better than Hunter at 30 mpw vs 70-75 mpw (apparently he runs more than the 30 mpw that Warhurst prescribes him, but I doubt it's anything close to what Hunter trained).

Just because Hunter is extraordinarily talented, doesn't mean there isn't someone who is even more talented. Also people here often say he is undertrained, and lacking speed work, but forget that he already had some major injuries in his professional career (broken foot etc.). So unless there is reason to assume he could have got injured from doing too much of something else, adding even more stress/stimulus was not an option as it would just break down his body even more.

I recall Fisher beating Hunter in the dream mike and destroying him at Footlocker.

Mr. Phil, do you think Hunter is underperforming or is this where you expect him to be? Please answer honestly. Imagine we are in 2016, and Hunter had just dominated the high school ranks, run a 3:57, and signed a pro adidas contract. Is this where you expect him to be?

` wrote:

Why are people acting like Drew's adidas contract is making him incredibly rich? Yes, he's making good money for a pro runner, but he is NOT set for life after a decade of making a solid middle class salary. He will certainly need to get another good job afterwards to maintain his standard of living.

For example, I'm sure Fisher's earning potential is much higher than Drew's when looking at his current Nike contract and any job he could get after his running career with his Stanford degree. Now, I don't know what kind of grades Hunter was getting, but I'm sure nearly any school would have made it work for a 3:57 high school miler.

How much are you assuming he is making when you say this? And what number would you say is enough to make him set for life? Just wondering how your expectations compare to reality.

NERunner53 wrote:

CANCEL DREW

There's no way you can run 3:40 in your first race of the year in February and come back from that. Also does it even matter if his focus is gonna be the 5k? Write him off. Cancel him. Cancel Tinman.

Ya'll are obsessed. He stuck his nose in it through 1k & didn't have the wheels to close with that middle pack. Let's see how he does. It looks like he's gonna race twice more in the coming weeks.

This is after a string of pretty lowsy performances and losing to multiple different college athletes. Maybe he'll get it together. But it's not looking great right now. He was never even close to the front of that race, and faded from the middle. Don't re-write history, we all saw it.

Sure, we can stick our heads in the sand and say "next time, he'll have it!". But don't act like it's a good thing to be dropped running 3:40, even in February.

I thought we got the details in 2016? $100k for 10 years. No idea if there are any reduction clauses or bonuses. So yes, good middle class salary. That's nowhere near enough to live on for the rest of your life, unless you live like a hermit and invest incredibly well. He'll need a real job afterwards.

I'm sure Fisher got something very similar from Nike (maybe a bit less, and not guaranteed), and he has his Stanford electrical engineering degree to fall back on.

` wrote:

Mr. Phil, do you think Hunter is underperforming or is this where you expect him to be? Please answer honestly. Imagine we are in 2016, and Hunter had just dominated the high school ranks, run a 3:57, and signed a pro adidas contract. Is this where you expect him to be?

HS achievements don't mean much. Otherwise, German Fernandez, Mary Cain, Sarah Baxter, Melody Fairchild, Claudia Lane etc. would have all been Olympians.

The mistake many people here on LRC are doing are taking HS success as indicator for becoming a Top US runner who will go to the Olympics but overlooking of how much they worked/trained in HS.

Fisher achieved his HS success with soccer and low mileage. Hobbs is currently dominating HS on 30 mpw with hill workouts. Hunter had to do 70+ mpw in his senior year, running weekly CV and tempo workouts. I'm not saying he was overtrained, but others achieved the same or more with a lot less training.

Being able to crush in a HS environment does not mean the same runner will also crush in elite races later. Dozens of HS prodigies have proven that. Tinman training seems to get the HS kids on a very high level and/or close to their potential, but might limit further growth. Or do people here expect Grace Ping to go to the Olympics because Tinman coached her to a world-age record at 12? Or Aidan Puffer at 14? Maybe now people understand..

` wrote:

Tom Hansen wrote:

How much are you assuming he is making when you say this? And what number would you say is enough to make him set for life? Just wondering how your expectations compare to reality.

I thought we got the details in 2016? $100k for 10 years. No idea if there are any reduction clauses or bonuses. So yes, good middle class salary. That's nowhere near enough to live on for the rest of your life, unless you live like a hermit and invest incredibly well. He'll need a real job afterwards.

I'm sure Fisher got something very similar from Nike (maybe a bit less, and not guaranteed), and he has his Stanford electrical engineering degree to fall back on.

Can you answer the second part of my question too?

This is a simple question. I did not need the paragraph. Is Hunter underperforming? I don't care about hindsight analysis.

Tom Hansen wrote:

` wrote:

I thought we got the details in 2016? $100k for 10 years. No idea if there are any reduction clauses or bonuses. So yes, good middle class salary. That's nowhere near enough to live on for the rest of your life, unless you live like a hermit and invest incredibly well. He'll need a real job afterwards.

I'm sure Fisher got something very similar from Nike (maybe a bit less, and not guaranteed), and he has his Stanford electrical engineering degree to fall back on.

Can you answer the second part of my question too?

He would certainly need multiple hundreds of thousands a year to be "set for life". Perhaps 300k-500k a year. Keep in mind he has living expenses during this time. And it all depends on how good he is with money. $100k per year for a decade doesn't cut it.

Drew should have gone to Oregon. He committed there in 2016. After a few years, Ben Thomas would have taken over. Imagine if he had two or three years under Ben Thomas. Imagine if Drew was still at Oregon this season. There’s a very good chance that he’d be faster than he is now.

The money argument has different. If he graduates as an NCAA champ and a 3:50 miler or 13:15 guy would he have a better contract than he has now?

hdjsosjsjsh wrote:

Drew should have gone to Oregon. He committed there in 2016. After a few years, Ben Thomas would have taken over. Imagine if he had two or three years under Ben Thomas. Imagine if Drew was still at Oregon this season. There’s a very good chance that he’d be faster than he is now.

The money argument has different. If he graduates as an NCAA champ and a 3:50 miler or 13:15 guy would he have a better contract than he has now?

It would certainly be very comparable or a bit higher. Drew went with the safe bucks.

` wrote:

Tom Hansen wrote:

Can you answer the second part of my question too?

He would certainly need multiple hundreds of thousands a year to be "set for life". Perhaps 300k-500k a year. Keep in mind he has living expenses during this time. And it all depends on how good he is with money. $100k per year for a decade doesn't cut it.

Thanks for answering my question - that confirms my suspicion that you were just way underestimating how much he is making.

coachcommentsnicely wrote:

It would be crazy to think he got a second injury.

Crazy? Sad that you use that term. Your mental affliction is keeping you from recognizing even the possibility of an injury. Remind me not to hire you as a Private Investigator, as you wouldn't be able to consider all the evidence. Glad you're not my coach, either.

Now, what was Hunter's finishing split in yesterday's 1500, compared to everyone else in the field? Let me remind you how slowly he finished: his split was NEXT-TO-LAST among those who ran the full distance. Yeah, he may have chosen to ease up, feeling defeated. He may also be injured in some way, not that he is. But it's a possibility. Even Old Man Nick handily outkicked him:

Oliver Hoare

41.67

Amos Bartelsmeyer

42.01

Sam Prakel

42.19

Sam Tanner

42.77

John Gregorek

43.21

Nick Willis

43.98

Jake Wightman

44.03

Craig Engels

44.09

Garrett O'Toole

45.14

Drew Hunter

46.17

Thomas Keen

47.35

I think they are starting to figure how to train world class caliber runners while still in college

His contract is for $100k for 10 years. I'm sure he has a few other streams of revenue, but it's certainly no more than $150k. Remember, Sam Parsons is the "director" of TME merch. I'm sure Drew gets a small cut.

Please, tell me his actual earnings. Don't be coy.

` wrote:

Tom Hansen wrote:

How much are you assuming he is making when you say this? And what number would you say is enough to make him set for life? Just wondering how your expectations compare to reality.

I thought we got the details in 2016? $100k for 10 years. No idea if there are any reduction clauses or bonuses. So yes, good middle class salary. That's nowhere near enough to live on for the rest of your life, unless you live like a hermit and invest incredibly well. He'll need a real job afterwards.

I'm sure Fisher got something very similar from Nike (maybe a bit less, and not guaranteed), and he has his Stanford electrical engineering degree to fall back on.

Well, he bought a house in Boulder, which does count as "invest(ing) incredibly well." His roommates are surely covering the majority of the mortgage payment, so he's already turned it into a small income stream. He'll see a fat equity return if and when he does decide to sell. Appreciation rate in that zip code over 5+ years is substantial.

Sure, but he'll definitely need another job after his contract is up. This is just like an engineer from a good school making $100k right out of school...he certainly wouldn't be able to retire at the age of 30. I also feel that he could have gotten a beefier pay out if he tore up the college scene, but he took the safe bucks.

Again, all I'm trying to point out is that Adidas is not making Hunter "incredibly rich" as some posters stated. It was a very tempting contract, but it's not enough money that he couldn't refuse it.