Most likely barrier to be broken? 1:40 800m 3:40 mile 12:30 5k 26:00 10k

If he wanted to give more emphasis to the level of his athletes, he had to say that 26'17" was the fastest time possible, not the opposite....

A legit sub-2 could come at Dubai any year.

I can see that race going off with two dozen runners in 2021, and a "legit" sub-2 happening.

Otherwise, it's:

800 (easy to do a lot of them, and Brazier)

5000 (because of who is running them now)

Mile (it's never run)

10000 (see above)

No "barrier" goes down without doping. So, who cares.

Think about this. When Rudisha went 1:40.91 he was traveling at essentially eight meters per second. To go under 1:40 you'd have to beat him by almost eight meters. Watch that race from 2012 and ask yourself if you think any human can burn him by eight meters. I don't see anyone doing that any time soon.

I think all of these require an improvement of 0.5-1 second per lap on current WRs to achieve. I think it's much more likely that someone can fluke that 1 second for a single lap in the 800m than someone can do it for 20+ laps in the 10k. I certainly think Cheptegei can take the 5k record but not under 12.30

runderun wrote:

I think all of these require an improvement of 0.5-1 second per lap on current WRs to achieve. I think it's much more likely that someone can fluke that 1 second for a single lap in the 800m than someone can do it for 20+ laps in the 10k. I certainly think Cheptegei can take the 5k record but not under 12.30

....This sounds like the opinion of someone with no clue about the 800 or the greatness of Rudisha.

Stick to trying to break 3 hours in the marathon and leave T&F speculation to those more athletically inclined.

Agree. Mile is too far off the mark and not competed often enough to be in realistic range any time soon.

Oh, sweetie. You're not athletically-inclined, you're an internet sh1t-poster who wears his finishers shirt that the got from a turkey trot

MANY POSTERS thought I was out of my mind on many of my predictions and that include the one I made concerning. Donovan Brazier last year stating he will break the 800m WR and eventually sub 3:28. in the 1500m. He could threaten the 1500m WR but I don't think he will focus enough on the event. He is talented enough that in 2-3 years of 1500m running to go sub 3:28.

So the 800m will go sub 1:40 before any of the other magical barriers.

Daniel komen the 2nd 3000m 7:09

10,000 would be the easiest to set up especially if they can use the laser light pacing. Same with 5,000.

Mile and 800 would be tougher to find the pacing.

EightItUp wrote:

Think about this. When Rudisha went 1:40.91 he was traveling at essentially eight meters per second. To go under 1:40 you'd have to beat him by almost eight meters. Watch that race from 2012 and ask yourself if you think any human can burn him by eight meters. I don't see anyone doing that any time soon.

Think about this. A 48+ sec 400 meter hurdler could probably already sustain WR pace for 600-650 meters. Now all they need is a Lydiard style base, and they would have the capability. Of course, no hurdlers have this inclination. But, if you were really fast and strong but consistently out of medal contention, wouldn’t you want your coach to try to move you up? There has to be an outlier out there somewhere.

Hehehe

26

And it's not even close

Well here we go, looks like the people who said 10k/5k over 800 might be correct....

That 800m WR is not going anywhere for now. Amos might have a chance but Brazier doesn't. Sub 1:40 is not happening.

10k could easily go 25:59 at any point in the near future.

The ease with which Cheptegei ran 12:35 should make you think about 12:29 also.

And sub 3:40 is impossible.

Canova said that bekele could have gone Sub 26

I'm basing it off that partly

VIPAM wrote:

MANY POSTERS thought I was out of my mind on many of my predictions and that include the one I made concerning. Donovan Brazier last year stating he will break the 800m WR and eventually sub 3:28. in the 1500m. He could threaten the 1500m WR but I don't think he will focus enough on the event. He is talented enough that in 2-3 years of 1500m running to go sub 3:28.

So the 800m will go sub 1:40 before any of the other magical barriers.

Not out of your mind, just way off the mark.

runderun wrote:

I think all of these require an improvement of 0.5-1 second per lap on current WRs to achieve. I think it's much more likely that someone can fluke that 1 second for a single lap in the 800m than someone can do it for 20+ laps in the 10k. I certainly think Cheptegei can take the 5k record but not under 12.30

This is oversimplified thinking. “Well, 1 second is less than 20 so I’m going with that.” Wouldn’t you think that the shorter the distance the closer we’ve come to human potential, and the longer the event the more room there is to smooth out the variables and “perfect” a record run?

In the marathon, the WR was lowered from 2:05:38 to 2:01:39 from ‘02 to ‘18. In terms of percentages, that’s like the 800 WR being lowered by 4.53” (or like 1:41.11 to 1:36.58) over the same period. Instead, the record has been lowered by only .82” in the last 39 years.

There aren’t really any “flukes” in running, either you’re physiologically capable or you’re not.

What?! You use inconsistent logic. No one has been anywhere near 3:40 ever!!! Yet some guy ran .9 seconds away from 1:40 and you think it’s the least likely?