😹😹
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#59902
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#59903
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S+P 500 YTD down 20%.
Let's finish strong today and push this down a bit more
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
That's very impressive Igy, but the problem is since posting that in 2000, his fund has lost 34% of its value.
Clearly, one would have ample reason to not give much credence to anything he has said since.
For comparison, The SNP 500 has 165% and the Nasdaq has risen 271%.
I am pretty sure your numbers are incorrect, but even if so, beside the point. The point is valuation. Now one can say that metric is meaningless, and no longer relevant. OK. Clearly there are very odd events taking place in financial markets, on a nearly daily basis. Gains are made in the middle of the night. Bitcoin, GME, SPACs, Small Caps, Tech comapnies with no earning, real estate; the list is endless, really.
^that was 2/08/2021
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I am pretty sure your numbers are incorrect, but even if so, beside the point. The point is valuation. Now one can say that metric is meaningless, and no longer relevant. OK. Clearly there are very odd events taking place in financial markets, on a nearly daily basis. Gains are made in the middle of the night. Bitcoin, GME, SPACs, Small Caps, Tech comapnies with no earning, real estate; the list is endless, really.
^that was 2/08/2021
Igy, thanks for revisiting this discussion.
We have really spent a lot of time visiting this topic, esp. since the market has clearly and unequivocally gone in a direction this year favorable to the views of both you and John Hussman.
It all boils down to this, as I said originally (to which you responded as noted above), his fund and the permabear projections have not be born out over the long term. Yes, they have been born out this year, but taken in their entirety, it has so far been very misguided. To have missed market appreciation over the last decade is just sad.
CRUX OF MESSAGE: So, in my estimation, for either the permabear forecasts like yours or for the total reputation of Hussman and his funds to actually gain credibility, the markets will need to give back several years worth of gains. You and I both know that in your case, you have calling for markets to tank since about 2017 and perhaps much earlier. Well, when we get to that level, I will say that you were right. We have a long way to go. And I do not feel that the downturn this year validates the view that markets are strictly valuation driven.
As for your implications about market manipulation or "odd events" in the night, sounds titillating, but I don't have the foggiest idea what you are talking about.
That said, good job getting it right this year on market direction and I'll leave it at that.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Today is another bear market rally. I suspect it will be considerably weaker than the last one. Petering out at 3,850-3,950, with the market collapsing to 3,000-3,200 into the New Year.
^ 10/3/22
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J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Today is another bear market rally. I suspect it will be considerably weaker than the last one. Petering out at 3,850-3,950, with the market collapsing to 3,000-3,200 into the New Year.
^ 10/3/22
He is only off about 28% -is that good for Igy? Isn't he normally off about 60%?
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Sally Vix wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
^ 10/3/22
He is only off about 28% -is that good for Igy? Isn't he normally off about 60%?
Yes, I was wrong. It was the NASDAQ losing 33%!
Looks like HSGFX paid a large capital gain this last day. Sorry you missed that and SARK! Up about 5% on EMD and FAX. iLOL.
Happy New Year DGTD posters!
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sehon40 wrote:
believe me, www.federaljobsearch.com has been getting a lot of hits on my computer lately. at this point i'm just grateful that i found a job that got me out of debt quickly and that i'm young enough to still capture the best years of my running life if i so choose. certainly i can achieve my best while working a job, but climbing the ladder i'm on right now for 55 - 60 hours a week is not going to allow me to achieve my best. i know this and am wrestling with what to do. at least i'll know in february what i can run in the marathon while climbing this ladder.
Happy New Year Igy and all the other Down with the Dow posters. We have had a bad year but I think 2023 will rock (igy might disagree). Lets look for 20% returns on 2 of the major 3 indexes.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Happy New year and may your families have health and prosperity for all of 2023.
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J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Today is another bear market rally. I suspect it will be considerably weaker than the last one. Petering out at 3,850-3,950, with the market collapsing to 3,000-3,200 into the New Year.
^ 10/3/22
All of 2022👹:
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Looks like HSGFX paid a large capital gain this last day.
Hussman not doing his investors any favors come tax day. Better than claiming a loss though as they’re used to doing.
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Happy New Year all - here’s to a profitable and entertaining 2023.
you guys make working from home much more fun.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
All of 2022👹:
False.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^that was 2/08/2021
Igy, thanks for revisiting this discussion.
We have really spent a lot of time visiting this topic, esp. since the market has clearly and unequivocally gone in a direction this year favorable to the views of both you and John Hussman.
It all boils down to this, as I said originally (to which you responded as noted above), his fund and the permabear projections have not be born out over the long term. Yes, they have been born out this year, but taken in their entirety, it has so far been very misguided. To have missed market appreciation over the last decade is just sad.
CRUX OF MESSAGE: So, in my estimation, for either the permabear forecasts like yours or for the total reputation of Hussman and his funds to actually gain credibility, the markets will need to give back several years worth of gains. You and I both know that in your case, you have calling for markets to tank since about 2017 and perhaps much earlier. Well, when we get to that level, I will say that you were right. We have a long way to go. And I do not feel that the downturn this year validates the view that markets are strictly valuation driven.
As for your implications about market manipulation or "odd events" in the night, sounds titillating, but I don't have the foggiest idea what you are talking about.
That said, good job getting it right this year on market direction and I'll leave it at that.
Seattle,
I will answer this way, since 2017 $7 Trillion in Fed stimulus and Government handouts convinced most here that valuations do not matter. More than that amount has been erased from the markets in 2022. Real estate and crypto would drive that figure even higher.
But best to you in 2023.
Igy
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I will answer this way, since 2017 $7 Trillion in Fed stimulus and Government handouts convinced most here that valuations do not matter. More than that amount has been erased from the markets in 2022. Real estate and crypto would drive that figure even higher.
But best to you in 2023.
Igy
No one here thinks valuations do not matter. Everyone knows that they do. But most of us realize that they are just one component to consider. You seem to think they are the only thing worth considering.
Happy 2023 to all.
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agip wrote:
Happy New Year all - here’s to a profitable and entertaining 2023.
you guys make working from home much more fun.
Ditto that.
All I can say is regarding the markets, it's a long and winding road to penny lane. But I say don't look back to yesterday, because here comes the sun, and markets, 'don't let me down.'
Anyone suddenly feel an urge to que up a beatles song?
Enjoy!
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Trews wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I will answer this way, since 2017 $7 Trillion in Fed stimulus and Government handouts convinced most here that valuations do not matter. More than that amount has been erased from the markets in 2022. Real estate and crypto would drive that figure even higher.
But best to you in 2023.
Igy
No one here thinks valuations do not matter. Everyone knows that they do. But most of us realize that they are just one component to consider. You seem to think they are the only thing worth considering.
Happy 2023 to all.
Most investors approach valuations the same way Wall Street does. That is, accepting non-GAAP accounting, discounting the corrosive affects of free money, and making every excuse to support fake markets. How else was every major market move missed by Wall Street in 2022? If an investor is down 15-20% on the year they certainly are not paying attention to valuations in a traditional sense. And, if an investor is down in excess of 25% they might consider expanding their reading list to include Benjamin Graham.
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Declare the pennies in their eyes wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Looks like HSGFX paid a large capital gain this last day.
Hussman not doing his investors any favors come tax day. Better than claiming a loss though as they’re used to doing.
Good thing HSGFX did me a favor in funded my 2023 IRA distribution.😹
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