Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Right now I am guessing Bush about 25, Starliper/Seymour if both run close to 40, Rauber could be 50th. I have NM with 3 between 15-20 and 2 between 25-30. NC St could use Starliper or Seymour around 30.

Agreed. Just from an eyeball perspective the courses looked comparable and the ground at Panorama looked rougher.

also, its gradual hills are not a straight gradual hill climb, BUT A TURN ! which is a lot tougher ! dizzy watching it

2023 championships going to be crazy on that course!

So the keener in me decided to do this....I used Google Maps which does a pretty good job of letting you measure in meters. You can only do straight lines, but add as many waypoints as you like. I tried to draw lines along the outside of what the path would be (to make it as long as possible). I got that the first 2km were almost dead on, but the 3km mark on their map was only around 2.9km on maps. The 5km mark was 4.85km, and at the finish I had between 5.75 and 5.8km (did it twice).

Were the mens times off as well....I haven't looked at that....but I did measure the mens course to 3km and it looked very close.

On the letsrun pod today, I guess they asked the coach and he said was that it's 'fairly accurate'... lol

based on the splits I had come up with 2.12 was good, the 3 was 2.9 and the total was 5.85

But I could also be convinced the 5.85 was only 5.8. It just depends on what you think the runners had for a kick.

I tried to keep the measurement to the outside of the potential running path for every portion of the race...and still it was coming up short. I will watch the race again and see if my path looks correct.

I would say definately 5.8k is likely. At most 5.85k

Whats 200 yards between friends?

Could elevation be any factor? Are there hills that could lengthen the distance between points, or is it just flat flat

The bottom line is even with 200 [meters] it is close to 19:00....but on a very fast course

I watched it and there were no hills I noticed. Maybe some ripples but that is it.

ND has a 1% chance.

The course was superfast regardless. But 200 meters is not even trying.

It seemed dead flat when I watched the first time

Assuming the course was 5.85 and projecting Valby's pace out to 6K takes her time from 18:25 to 18:54 which is four seconds better than her last race which was also on a flat fast course.

LACCTIC now has the latest one rated at 15:00 and the previous one at 15:04 so the same four second difference. This shows it is doing a good job of comparing races of different lengths.

By the way that race in Texas was said to possibly be 30 to 40 meters short so that 5.85 is possibly more like 5.80 or there was a slight difference in other factors. Nothing can be said with absolute certainty but it appears the algorithm did a good job of compensating for the different course lengths.

another way of looking at it LACCTiC provides another validation that the course is very short, and 5.8 K or so. Split, Google Earth, LACTTiC all say about the same thing.

Semi has posted many races that most people would not have seen if not for her. I'm glad people is thanking her, she deserves a thank you and praise for what she does. Thank you Semi for the videos! You are the real champ!