Addy Wiley 1:57.64!!!

Even putting aside the scandal and context, it still requires extraordinary levels of credulity to accept at face value that a high school runner could achieve not merely a massive pr but such a statistically anomalous time, again several seconds faster than any high school 1600m ever run that none of her prior times even suggested. With doping you are looking at statistical norms among other things.

The starting point isn't zero; it is their performances at a particular stage - such as mid-teens and then a period after, like the late teens.

All improvement is linear, in the sense it progresses from one point to another, even if there are fluctuations in that progression. But what stands out are jumps in performance that far exceed those of their peers - and particularly at a later stage of their development.

I never bought the doping "look". Cyclists took everyrhing under the sun and looked thin as a rail. It is rhe chemical effects that matter.

No, it isn't - or many more athletes of her age would have made the same improvement to run similar times. They haven't.

Monson ran 4:55 (1600) junior year and 5:04 senior year. Three years later, she ran 4:38 (mile). So she dropped about 25-30 seconds from senior year after 3 years and about 20 seconds from her PR junior year. She is the American record holder in the 5000.

Let’s get back on topic. Rojo promised he was going to call a super agent who had been texting him and make sure he was up to speed on all things Huntington. I believe we all want an update on that call. Both those like myself who think Wiley will be the distance version of Allyson Felix representing the US positively and making huge difference in her community….well…and the Astro Acolytes hate typing away from their childhood homes and letting their Mom’s know they will be ready for meatloaf soon.

We want an update Rojo!

Did you make contact? Set an agent straight? Get Addy removed from the meet? Ruin her chances at a major contract? or do you not have the juice? The clock is ticking as it’s late afternoon in Europe. You don’t have time for your usual clickbait posts if you still intend to meddle in the affairs of America’s next middle distance star. Tick tock.

Okay, so then you're saying that Tuohy has been obviously doping. Got it.

I am all for her turning pro and going away.

You choose whatever age suits your accusations for one athlete and suits your defense of another athlete. Maybe one athlete started doing younger than another.

Unfortunately, no performance by any elite runner shows that another runner is clean, because no performance at those levels can safely be assumed it also wasn't doped.

You are literally talking about the high school record. Obviously nobody else has run that time. Is every high school record holder suspicious?

Your argument is ultimately that no progression raises the question of possible doping. Everything - no matter how extreme or anomalous - is still somehow "normal".

In a sport where doping is widespread, that is wilfully naive.

True. Nothing can prove that an athlete like Tuohy is clean, especially when they have never been tested. We should assume that any elite athlete who hasn't been tested, is doping.

You talk about the "look" all the time when you think it's relevant:

ibb.co

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Link:ibb.co/B2N2Tpt

No. But if the improvements go far beyond the rate of improvements of other highly-trained athletes it should raise the question of how was this naturally achievable. This is especially so today, when doping is in every sport.

That's a good argument, because it's 100 percent true.

Jim Ryun went from a 5:38 mile in cross country season, to a 4:08 mile a few months later.

I think there are plenty of red flags for Wiley, but progression isn't in the top 5. Anyone who points to progression alone as a sign of doping is full of it.

You could twist a progression narrative for many athletes:

Alicia Monson has dropped over a minute in the 5000m as a pro. Emily McKay has dropped 9 seconds in the last year in the 1500m since joining NB Boston from a lower tier D1 program. Dani Jones finally dropped a nearly 3 second PR last week in the 1500m after years of stagnation. Logic on this board is that all three are cheaters with such breakthroughs but they don't speak to the other factors an athlete might be dealing with. Sometimes we get glimpses of it through social media or interviews, but generally we don't know.

The absolute worship or absolute belief that any athlete is clean or dirty is toxic. We don't know, and won't know truly.

You are misunderstanding the argument. It isn't that every untested athlete is doping - that would include most hobby joggers - it is that in a sport where doping is present there is justifiable suspicion with any extreme performance that can't be credibly explained through "talent" and "training" alone.

This statement is so vague that it could be applied to literally any runner who managed to improve.