“I did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)”
You guys are nuts if you judge how well someone ran based on your place-by-place picks. The stochastic probabilities that cover how/why runners place in any given race are off the page. Get over yourselves.
MIT 18.S096 Topics in Mathematics with Applications in Finance, Fall 2013View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/18-S096F13Instructor: Choongbum Lee*NOT...
Props to what Coach Smith has done with this womens team. shows he doesn't need HS superstars and can coach the "average" runner to above average results.. The whole roster has made huge improvements.
What’s the story on Elise Sterns? Where did she come from? Have not heard of her in the past but now is beating some of the big names and placing top 5 in these big meets?? Might be the revelation of the year on the womens side!
It is interesting, she was a 5:06 1600m and 18:22 5k runner in high school. She was 196th at NCAA Nationals last year but will CERTAINLY do far better this year (top-10 contender now).
A relative unknown that has flourished under the NAU program, having run 15:55 in April for a track 5k, and then that great time at the Cowboy Jamboree taking 5th, and then today, WOW…
Props to what Coach Smith has done with this womens team. shows he doesn't need HS superstars and can coach the "average" runner to above average results.. The whole roster has made huge improvements.
So in looking back...what a crap shoot it is trying to predict XC. For my top 12 predicted, here is there final placement:
Katelyn Tuohy - 1 Isabel Van Camp - 10 Maddy Denner - 101 Aubrey Frentheway - 11 Samantha Bush - 18 Gracelyn Larkin - 9 Haley Herberg - did not run Kaylee Mitchell - 4 Everlyn Kemboi - 13 Emily Covert - 29 Sydney Seymour - 23 Markezich - 17
Starliper did not run
I will take credit for Chmiel though So of the top 12 predicted, I only got 6...hope no Parley bets were placed on that.
Some interesting takes though...
Kemboi - never contended
Bush fell back mid race then held
Seymour dropped towards the last km...but I would say that is just conditioning
Denner - no idea what happened
Covert - I hoped she would do better, but I am not surprised
Van Camp - that had to be disappointing for her
other interesting notables: nice race for Dudek. Dishon was solid. Ramsden I was not expecting at all, Sterns stayed solid the whole race...stuck at the front and never wavered.
I rewatched the race...one thing that I did notice at the finish line...Tuohy and Chmiel ran hard, but neither was struggling as they finished. Sterns looked pretty wiped, Mitchell was spent. Kemboi was also was looking completely done. Van Camp looked not bad. Bush and Seymour were both exhausted.
Can anyone comment how this course compares to the OSU track?
Props to what Coach Smith has done with this womens team. shows he doesn't need HS superstars and can coach the "average" runner to above average results.. The whole roster has made huge improvements.
“I did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)”
You guys are nuts if you judge how well someone ran based on your place-by-place picks. The stochastic probabilities that cover how/why runners place in any given race are off the page. Get over yourselves.
ah, I see you missed the whole part of trying to have a bit of fun while watching an event. You see, no one was actually thinking they 'knew' what was going to happen...but sometimes it is enjoyable to make predictions and then see how bad you did.
As for judging runners, again, no one is 'judging' the runners....but when one runner is a favorite and then ends up in 20th, people notice and wonder why. Off day? Injured? etc etc.
Anyway, you are correct though...especially in XC, it is almost impossible to guess how runners will do. This is why Tuohys HighSchool unbeaten streak is so impressive....not once did she falter through something like 4 years of XC. And Chmiel really as well...the only thing that stopped her from being one of the most successful HS runners of all time was Tuohy.
jed, IMO (having walked both and discussed w some who have run both) stillwater degree of difficulty 9; zimmer a 7. Zimmer far more fan friendly, but a bit lumpy to run on. Running conditions near perfect at Zimmer today; wind the only outlier from ‘perfect.’
With NAU not likely in the running for the title, Smith should give Nico and Drew the freedom to fight for the individual championships. This is Nico’s chance. The Stanford boys likely won’t risk anything and neither will the BYU guys. Nico can do what Mantz did last year and go for the individual title once he sees the team title out of reach.
What if they had Nico/Drew go out really hard, like Kiptoo level hard, to pull the whole field out way too fast? The rest of the NAU guys could go out more conservatively and pick up the carnage in the last 2k. Whichever one went out hard would probably lose their chance at a title, but probably be fit enough to place top 10. IIRC that's what Notre Dame did when they finished 2nd, but they had Kiptoo to pull out the field instead of having Nuguse do it.
It's a really risky strategy because if #1 misjudges their effort on a course that tough, they could crater and finish below the 40s, but tbh Nico seems like the best runner in the NCAA to do it. Without it, it doesn't look very likely for NAU to win. Stanford's #5 looks so far off 1-4 that going out fast could lose a lot of points, but even if NAU executed it perfectly BYU has a good chance of winning. BYU's 1-5 spread was 2.5s without Clinger, which is absolutely nuts.
Looks like BYU shut down the last 2k. All the top five went down in place and finished together. If you subtracted out the amount of positions they lost in the last 2k and they had maintained place, BYU would have been ahead. Also that doesn't include their top two Clinger and Allen not racing. What was encouraging for BYU was that Troutner and Garnica were both in that top five group. They had been struggling up till this result. Will be a great finals!
As compared to a track maybe. I give OK State a 7 and Wisconsin a 5. The footing is so good at OK State that a 7 is even a bit high. 90% of the course is flat and runs like a fairway.
jed, IMO (having walked both and discussed w some who have run both) stillwater degree of difficulty 9; zimmer a 7. Zimmer far more fan friendly, but a bit lumpy to run on. Running conditions near perfect at Zimmer today; wind the only outlier from ‘perfect.’
Thanks, conditions did look great today. I watched the Jamboree as well and it seemed to have a few more hills. Should be very interesting to see how things progress!! I'm not sure what weather is like in late Nov at OSU, but that will certainly have an effect on placements as well.
Technically this is Tuohy's first 6k win. She ran well last year but was always second behind Chmiel after the 5k opener. Tuohy looked really good at the end. That 1500 speed allows her to gun the last 1k.
NM is an altitude school so a 6km will suit them better. But NCSt tends to run better at Nationals. They don't peak in September/October.
What’s the story on Elise Sterns? Where did she come from? Have not heard of her in the past but now is beating some of the big names and placing top 5 in these big meets?? Might be the revelation of the year on the womens side!
Levelled up her miles and mental game. Perhaps the Mike Smith factor is not insignificant.
What’s the story on Elise Sterns? Where did she come from? Have not heard of her in the past but now is beating some of the big names and placing top 5 in these big meets?? Might be the revelation of the year on the womens side!
It is interesting, she was a 5:06 1600m and 18:22 5k runner in high school. She was 196th at NCAA Nationals last year but will CERTAINLY do far better this year (top-10 contender now).
A relative unknown that has flourished under the NAU program, having run 15:55 in April for a track 5k, and then that great time at the Cowboy Jamboree taking 5th, and then today, WOW…
Thanks for sharing! What a great story. Love seeing these kind of stories where hard work and good coaching can transform an average high school talent into title contenders. Good for her!
Thanks for sharing! What a great story. Love seeing these kind of stories where hard work and good coaching can transform an average high school talent into title contenders. Good for her!
You’re welcome. I’ll bet a lot of women were like “who’s she?”, since she didn’t bring the pedigree that the top contenders tend to have.
“…enjoyable to make predictions and then see how bad you did.”
Gluttons for punishment.
“As for judging runners, again, no one is 'judging' the runners....but when one runner is a favorite and then ends up in 20th, people notice and wonder why.”
BS. It’s the thoughtless rectal extractions surrounding ‘why’ that form the judgement(s). And obtw, the favorite today, won — and in impressive fashion. Yet, she fell short of pre-race predictions (judgments…).
“Thanks for sharing! What a great story. Love seeing these kind of stories where hard work and good coaching can transform an average high school talent into title contenders. Good for her!”