Anything can happen on race day. Nationals will be interesting to watch.
Your opinion. No need to be condescending. Some people absolutely discuss times, winning margin, course records in XC, look no further than the letsrun homepage. Some fans enjoy looking at data, to each their own!
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
One thing I did note, which is another reason to not focus on times, is almost everyone at ACC that ran Nuttycombe ran faster, many 30+ seconds faster. Seymour and Howlett were exceptions. So length of the 2 courses is an unknown.
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
i still believe that syd is fit this season, she runs the same workouts as sam bush and her joe piane invite run is impressive but then again it did not have hills but it still showed that she has good fitness, just has to be more mentally tough and willing to sacrifice for the team because she doesnt really look "spent" at the finish of the past 2 races, which means she didnt really gave it her all or maybe she did idk
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
What do you mean they barely won over a team that probably won't podium or be in the top five!
I mean they barely won and outside of Sam Bush no one else,except their top two, looks like a top 50 runner at NCAA championships
Yeah Brooke Rauber showed great improvement but she's still not a legitimate likely All American
Starliper and shaw are looking really doubtful to even run in the race never mind finish all American the same with Seymour
Quarzo looking like maybe a 60 place runner
1,5,25,50,65 are reasonable predictions from what they showed this weekend and sorry that's not going to get it done
They might not even finish in second with that kind of score as Alabama and New Mexico are both looking pretty good
The times are irrelevant! It's how you do compared to your competition and this was only a conference championship and they didn't look all that great except for their top two runners
Yeah bush had a nice finish but still that doesn't mean she's guaranteed to even be in the top 20 at Nationals
Anyway just quoting random times is meaningless you have to look at how they're doing compared to the competition and how that competition relates to the competition in the nation
I think it's looking more and more like three or even four teams now have a shot and I wouldn't say NC State look like the best team this past weekend
i still believe that syd is fit this season, she runs the same workouts as sam bush and her joe piane invite run is impressive but then again it did not have hills but it still showed that she has good fitness, just has to be more mentally tough and willing to sacrifice for the team because she doesnt really look "spent" at the finish of the past 2 races, which means she didnt really gave it her all or maybe she did idk
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
One thing I did note, which is another reason to not focus on times, is almost everyone at ACC that ran Nuttycombe ran faster, many 30+ seconds faster. Seymour and Howlett were exceptions. So length of the 2 courses is an unknown.
the reason why the panorama farms was faster was because THE FIRST 2.5K WAS BLAZING FAST!!!
meanwhile the nuttycombe race started SO SLOW and went on slow
Just because SEC course was short doesnt mean Panorama Farms is, the splits were normal.
PANORAMA FARMS is an NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE, and it is managed by the PRESIDENT OF USATF, why would he allow a short course? that will taint his name and his work ..legacy etc whatsoever
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
What do you mean they barely won over a team that probably won't podium or be in the top five!
I mean they barely won and outside of Sam Bush no one else,except their top two, looks like a top 50 runner at NCAA championships
Yeah Brooke Rauber showed great improvement but she's still not a legitimate likely All American
Starliper and shaw are looking really doubtful to even run in the race never mind finish all American the same with Seymour
Quarzo looking like maybe a 60 place runner
1,5,25,50,65 are reasonable predictions from what they showed this weekend and sorry that's not going to get it done
They might not even finish in second with that kind of score as Alabama and New Mexico are both looking pretty good
The times are irrelevant! It's how you do compared to your competition and this was only a conference championship and they didn't look all that great except for their top two runners
Yeah bush had a nice finish but still that doesn't mean she's guaranteed to even be in the top 20 at Nationals
Anyway just quoting random times is meaningless you have to look at how they're doing compared to the competition and how that competition relates to the competition in the nation
I think it's looking more and more like three or even four teams now have a shot and I wouldn't say NC State look like the best team this past weekend
Yes seriously, NC State is definitely heading the wrong direction. Also I think the tough course will favor New Mexico. NC State would do better on a faster course.
Hey Semihaze...thanks for posting. That is a great course!!! Tuohy, Chmiel, and Markezich looked great. And not enough credit given to Bush...she closed hard and passed two ND runners in the last K.
I mean they barely won and outside of Sam Bush no one else,except their top two, looks like a top 50 runner at NCAA championships
Yeah Brooke Rauber showed great improvement but she's still not a legitimate likely All American
Starliper and shaw are looking really doubtful to even run in the race never mind finish all American the same with Seymour
Quarzo looking like maybe a 60 place runner
1,5,25,50,65 are reasonable predictions from what they showed this weekend and sorry that's not going to get it done
Going into this season everyone thought they had Starliper, Shaw and Seymour. Unless they have 2 out of those 3 totally on point I don't think they will win. I agree, they look vulnerable now.
I disagree, increasing or decreasing the 2.12 distance and holding all others constant shows problems for other splits. What would make sense is if the splits were 1, 2.12, 2.9, 3.75, 4.85, and 5.85. If anyone is curious they can go into the google sheets spreadsheet and adjust the distances in column A rows 21:26 and the pace computation will update.
So curious, can someone go to google maps and lay in the course? It will give distances between points....
I disagree, increasing or decreasing the 2.12 distance and holding all others constant shows problems for other splits. What would make sense is if the splits were 1, 2.12, 2.9, 3.75, 4.85, and 5.85. If anyone is curious they can go into the google sheets spreadsheet and adjust the distances in column A rows 21:26 and the pace computation will update.
So curious, can someone go to google maps and lay in the course? It will give distances between points....
you can try, but not on streets or sidewalks, and only shows 1 decimal place I think so not precise.
One thing I did note, which is another reason to not focus on times, is almost everyone at ACC that ran Nuttycombe ran faster, many 30+ seconds faster. Seymour and Howlett were exceptions. So length of the 2 courses is an unknown.
the reason why the panorama farms was faster was because THE FIRST 2.5K WAS BLAZING FAST!!!
meanwhile the nuttycombe race started SO SLOW and went on slow
Just because SEC course was short doesnt mean Panorama Farms is, the splits were normal.
PANORAMA FARMS is an NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE, and it is managed by the PRESIDENT OF USATF, why would he allow a short course? that will taint his name and his work ..legacy etc whatsoever
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
The team race has always been a question....many on this site have said it from the start. It's the 4/5 runners who will decide the race. NC State easily has the most depth, but they need Starliper/Seymour or one other to place well in order to win. But realistically there are 3 or 4 teams who can win this race.
Everyone seems focused on NC States injured runners....every team will be battling the same issue. Likely no team has a top 5 where everyone is healthy. Falls, spiderbites (I never knew that) twisted ankles...the team race is completely up in the air. ..
The only runner on NC State that is "headed in the wrong direction" is arguably Seymour. Almost everyone else in their top 7 is actually making huge strides. The Panorama Farms course in Virginia (at ACC Championships) is arguably tougher (more hilly) than Stillwater, and if you compare the times from Nuttycombe to the ACC Championships, most of the Wolfpack's top 7 runners made HUGE reductions in their times. Tuohy ran ~40 seconds faster, Chmiel ~30 seconds faster, Bush ~30 seconds faster, Rauber a full minute faster, and Quarzo 25 seconds faster.
To the contrary, NC State's runners are peaking here at the end of the season. And you talk about someone "stepping up". Did you see what Rauber did?
What do you mean they barely won over a team that probably won't podium or be in the top five!
I mean they barely won and outside of Sam Bush no one else,except their top two, looks like a top 50 runner at NCAA championships
Yeah Brooke Rauber showed great improvement but she's still not a legitimate likely All American
Starliper and shaw are looking really doubtful to even run in the race never mind finish all American the same with Seymour
Quarzo looking like maybe a 60 place runner
1,5,25,50,65 are reasonable predictions from what they showed this weekend and sorry that's not going to get it done
They might not even finish in second with that kind of score as Alabama and New Mexico are both looking pretty good
The times are irrelevant! It's how you do compared to your competition and this was only a conference championship and they didn't look all that great except for their top two runners
Yeah bush had a nice finish but still that doesn't mean she's guaranteed to even be in the top 20 at Nationals
Anyway just quoting random times is meaningless you have to look at how they're doing compared to the competition and how that competition relates to the competition in the nation
I think it's looking more and more like three or even four teams now have a shot and I wouldn't say NC State look like the best team this past weekend
You act like Notre Dame is a "terrible" team. LOL. Notre Dame was #5 at NCAAs last fall, and was ranked #6 in the nation coming into the ACC race this year. They are a very good team, and are definitely one of the teams that could podium at NCAAs this year.
And then you say that no one other than Tuohy or Chmiel looks like a "legitimate All American". Lmao. Are you forgetting about Sam Bush, who was All American last season, and looking even better this year?
Are you even pretending to give a real analysis here?
Shaw was not likely to be a factor in XC anyway. She hasn't been her whole career, and she is a senior. She is more of a track runner.
Yeah, of course the times don't tell everything. And if we look at the comparison to the competition, I see, for example, Brooke Rauber at the ACC Championships running only 2 seconds behind Maddy Denner of Notre Dame who was #9 at NCAAs last fall.
the reason why the panorama farms was faster was because THE FIRST 2.5K WAS BLAZING FAST!!!
meanwhile the nuttycombe race started SO SLOW and went on slow
Just because SEC course was short doesnt mean Panorama Farms is, the splits were normal.
PANORAMA FARMS is an NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE, and it is managed by the PRESIDENT OF USATF, why would he allow a short course? that will taint his name and his work ..legacy etc whatsoever
But yet, most runners handled it well...
Nuttycombe everyone went out slow. ACC the Notre Dame duo took it out quick and Touhy went with them, the entire race started out so much faster, and continued on from there.
That course was a true test. It’ll be interesting to see NCAA’s on it in 2023!
I’d say in course comparison that Stillwater’s hills are tougher, there are just fewer of them. Stillwater’s grass is cut short like a putting green whereas Panorama’s grass was longer like a fairway and at times the ”rough”. Overall comparison = just about equal I would say. I agree with folks that have mentioned it’s going to take anywhere from 19:20’s to 19:40’s at Stillwater to win. THAT will be amazing!