On a side note: Chelangat took 3rd on her home course race this morning… Defeated by her teammates.
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May have just been a tempo run.
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Washed-up Grad Student wrote:
Folx wrote:
Holy smokes the 4-5 gap at Tulsa was INSANE!
were they missing a scorer?
did a scorer have an off day?
Since you mentioned it, I added a feature to Lacctic to help look for this:
https://www.lacctic.com/races/5671
Click the little arrow on the left of the team to see who raced for the team and their score. The right column of that expander shows the people on the roster who didn't race and how they would have scored at the meet. Tulsa seems to have Scott Beattie and Michael Power who could have helped, but they're both marked as inactive because they haven't raced yet this season..
Power raced here. He was their 1. Beattie was a junior last year. He isn’t on the roster here though. Didn’t wanna use his last year of eligibility???????
it’s his decision I know. But it hurts the team a LOT. Almost all scorers are seniors :(
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“On a side note: Chelangat took 3rd on her home course race this morning… Defeated by her teammates.“
Hard to judge given that it was scored as a 5850m race. But…my take is that it was a step-change improvement for Amaris.
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FastTuohy wrote:
Lookingforagoodmatchup wrote:
You don't think Bush could finish ahead of Kemboi?
If I have to force rank the following I will guess this. More of a WAG. But I think these 9 are close
Kaylee Mitchell - beat Bush and Seymour at ND
Samantha Bush
Sydney Seymour
Everlyn Kemboi - the question is how much faster than 20:22 at OSU is she?
Isabel Van Camp - I just think she is this good
Aubrey Frentheway
Olivia Markezich
Gracelyn Larkin
Amelia Mazza-Downie
Emma HeckelI did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)
Kaylee Mitchell - 4
Samantha Bush - 18
Sydney Seymour - 23
Everlyn Kemboi - 13
Isabel Van Camp - 10
Aubrey Frentheway - 11
Olivia Markezich - 17
Gracelyn Larkin - 9
Amelia Mazza-Downie - 12
Emma Heckel - 26Pretty much all the top runners who ran at OSU ran faster today, but Frentheway, Roark, and Kemboi showed the lowest time improvement - ~15 seconds whereas most were more like 30.
NM as a team closed the gap vs Tuohy, Bush, Seymour. At Joe Piane they were 30-40 second slower than Tuohy while today 30-35. But they got 3 in before Bush and Seymour today vs 0 at Joe Piane.
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he's legit. I'm a freshman at ND and he's a legit freshman as well. He ended up running a very good time in the 3k, and then he just built base for 6+ months.
Yes, he's 20, but he "only" ran barely sub 15 at Footlocker. He was also born in Ethiopia - I'm not sure exactly where, but he may have the genes that activate with altitude.
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TuohyFan wrote:
On a side note: Chelangat took 3rd on her home course race this morning… Defeated by her teammates.
Thoughts on flomena’s performance? Alabama’s 5th girl finished close to her.
Could Flomena done better?
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Folx wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
On a side note: Chelangat took 3rd on her home course race this morning… Defeated by her teammates.
Thoughts on flomena’s performance? Alabama’s 5th girl finished close to her.
Could Flomena done better?
I think it is tough to draw any conclusions from this. AL may have trained right thru it. But their gap from 1-4 widened from 26 out to 50+ today and 1-5 widened as well to over 60. For a "5.85" K course the times were not that fast for AL.
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TuohyFan wrote:
Justification for my top-10:
1 Katelyn Tuohy NC State SO
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Mine were WAY off in some cases, but still getting 6 of my predicted top-10 finishers in the top-10 worked out! (Special note re: my #10 pick Starliper). Stearns from NAU taking 3rd in this meet was HUGE!
1 Katelyn Tuohy NC State SO {1st}
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR {18th}
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR {13th}
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR {10th}
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO {29th} OUCH!
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR {9th}
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR {23rd} OUCH!
8 Emily Venters Utah SR {6th} NICE!
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO {3rd} NICE!
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR {2nd} NICE! (via Kelsey Chmiel replacing her spot)**NOTE: Before the race I had learned that Starliper wouldn’t run, so I put Kelsey Chmiel in her predicted spot.
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FastTuohy wrote:
Pretty much all the top runners who ran at OSU ran faster today, but Frentheway, Roark, and Kemboi showed the lowest time improvement - ~15 seconds whereas most were more like 30.I haven’t looked at the breakdowns yet, but does that mean you’re anticipating that whatever someone ran today, we might expect them to be approximately 30 seconds slower on the OSU course next month?
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astro wrote:
May have just been a tempo run.
100%
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Lookingforagoodmatchup wrote:
astro wrote:
May have just been a tempo run.
100%
I’m not sure. In an interview with her before the race, and a write-up about it (I don’t remember where I saw it, probably on the teams website?), she had mentioned how important that race was to her with her family and friends being able to see her compete, etc. She only lost by 3 seconds, but I found it interesting.
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What’s the story on Elise Sterns? Where did she come from? Have not heard of her in the past but now is beating some of the big names and placing top 5 in these big meets?? Might be the revelation of the year on the womens side!
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Lookingforagoodmatchup wrote:
astro wrote:
May have just been a tempo run.
100%
Do you guys really think people run tempo runs in races?
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TuohyFan wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Pretty much all the top runners who ran at OSU ran faster today, but Frentheway, Roark, and Kemboi showed the lowest time improvement - ~15 seconds whereas most were more like 30.I haven’t looked at the breakdowns yet, but does that mean you’re anticipating that whatever someone ran today, we might expect them to be approximately 30 seconds slower on the OSU course next month?
No, some, I think maybe most of the difference is it is 3 weeks later and teams seemed more focused on this race. Of course the hills will affect different runners differently. This course did seem to run fast today - the field as a whole was faster than last year.
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“I did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)”
You guys are nuts if you judge how well someone ran based on your place-by-place picks. The stochastic probabilities that cover how/why runners place in any given race are off the page. Get over yourselves.
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vmg wrote:
“I did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)”
You guys are nuts if you judge how well someone ran based on your place-by-place picks. The stochastic probabilities that cover how/why runners place in any given race are off the page. Get over yourselves.
Um, by misses, I mean misses on MY part. I was a little surprised by how far back some runners placed - I had misjudged the competition some.
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vmg wrote:
“I did not have Chmiel racing but for the rest (2-11) quite a few misses (team places)”
You guys are nuts if you judge how well someone ran based on your place-by-place picks. The stochastic probabilities that cover how/why runners place in any given race are off the page. Get over yourselves.
WOW…
It’s fun to make predictions, and we’re certainly not the only ones to do so.
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Fan Out West wrote:
Folx wrote:
Stanford cooked everyone. Still would have beaten byu with Clinger
Devin Hart & Meika B-R ran the races of their lives . . . Stanford needed it since something happened to Tom Boyden at the end . . .
I am VERY happy to see Meika B-R have such a great race. I’ve been a fan of his since his high school days.
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Course manager wrote:
Kemboi is winning.
well, almost
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