Valby will finish third behind McCabe! There's one dude who's desperate for someone else to win and first he was hyped up on dudek, then cook, and now valby! Look how is other predictions are doing!
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
So, like she had an “off” day and STILL ran 19:05.5. I’m surprised someone involved in that race hasn’t come out and said, “Oops, sorry about that. yeah, we were about 200-400 meters short.” But, they never will.
This has my data, now for top 22 showing 400 m pace by K from the official results. Everyone ran fast 3rd K and last K. Everyone slowed a lot in 4th and 5th K from the 4rd K pace.
In the NCAA track 5k finals only two athletes ran a *single* 400m lap faster than 69s/400m - lauren gregory and gracelyn Larkin in their final lap each. Mercy didn't split faster than 71 in the entire race. These 400m paces are way too good, too close to actual track splits to be real. Idk what the grass conversion is, but it is probably atleast 2s/km on a fast course.
I really don't know what to make of these times.
Either the course was really fast, short, splits are off... or tuohy, McCabe, Roe should now be ranked behind a whole bunch of athletes.
I haven’t looked at your data, but if there was a consistent period of slowing, after a consistent period of speeding up, is the apparent discrepancy due to something simple like the split locations were off?
Since I adjusted took the reported times and calculate 400 pace from the reported distance, so no.
This has my data, now for top 22 showing 400 m pace by K from the official results. Everyone ran fast 3rd K and last K. Everyone slowed a lot in 4th and 5th K from the 4rd K pace.
In the NCAA track 5k finals only two athletes ran a *single* 400m lap faster than 69s/400m - lauren gregory and gracelyn Larkin in their final lap each. Mercy didn't split faster than 71 in the entire race. These 400m paces are way too good, too close to actual track splits to be real. Idk what the grass conversion is, but it is probably atleast 2s/km on a fast course.
I really don't know what to make of these times.
Either the course was really fast, short, splits are off... or tuohy, McCabe, Roe should now be ranked behind a whole bunch of athletes.
how about katelyn's 65 at 5k indoors? and 69 at 5k outdoors
Actually I think valby could even fall further back as I think this course will be really tough for her. I do think she's a good runner who has improved nicely but she's not going to be breaking any records this year and she's not going to be winning this race
Also I could see cook finishing outside the top 10 20 and even well back of that
But I do think New Mexico has to be the favorite at this point and unless NC State gets someone else to step up big time I don't see how they could win as no one outside of their top two is looking that strong! And their runners seem to be headed in the wrong direction! Obviously they have talented runners who could step up and give them a nice win but I wouldn't say they're the favorites after this past weekend!
By looking at both stillwater and panorama course, it looks like panorama course is harder, they have steeper big hill that runners run twice and then theres countless gradual hills with TURNS on top of it!!! plus another big hill at the finish
seems like its tougher, the grass is less "pampered" too haha idk whats the correct word, but the grass on stillwater is a fast one
In the NCAA track 5k finals only two athletes ran a *single* 400m lap faster than 69s/400m - lauren gregory and gracelyn Larkin in their final lap each. Mercy didn't split faster than 71 in the entire race. These 400m paces are way too good, too close to actual track splits to be real. Idk what the grass conversion is, but it is probably atleast 2s/km on a fast course.
I really don't know what to make of these times.
Either the course was really fast, short, splits are off... or tuohy, McCabe, Roe should now be ranked behind a whole bunch of athletes.
how about katelyn's 65 at 5k indoors? and 69 at 5k outdoors
I am looking at the outdoor finals that included a bunch of these athletes. No one was running 68s in the middle of the race, which is what this sheet shows. My point is, I would bet $$ the times/ distance are BS. I guess we shall see!
It just seems like a major screw up. I would be curious about times on the course beforehand. Did it ever run as a legitimate 6k course? The 3rd place runner ran 18:54. Says it all.
how about katelyn's 65 at 5k indoors? and 69 at 5k outdoors
I am looking at the outdoor finals that included a bunch of these athletes. No one was running 68s in the middle of the race, which is what this sheet shows. My point is, I would bet $ the times/ distance are BS. I guess we shall see!
oh idk what youre talking about .. what sheet ahahahha
Since I adjusted took the reported times and calculate 400 pace from the reported distance, so no.
The reported distance is probably incorrect.
I disagree, increasing or decreasing the 2.12 distance and holding all others constant shows problems for other splits. What would make sense is if the splits were 1, 2.12, 2.9, 3.75, 4.85, and 5.85. If anyone is curious they can go into the google sheets spreadsheet and adjust the distances in column A rows 21:26 and the pace computation will update.
The Stillwater course is tough... I think the hills are higher and maybe longer. Panorma Farms did have multiple hills and quick changes from up to down so staying in one stride was difficult. The 2020 NCAA race:
Alabama's Mercy Chelangat takes home the individual championship with a time of 20:01.1, becoming the first ever individual cross country champion for the Al...
The Stillwater course is tough... I think the hills are higher and maybe longer. Panorma Farms did have multiple hills and quick changes from up to down so staying in one stride was difficult. The 2020 NCAA race:
but if you compare all the hills, the panorama farms is more hilly than stillwater .. watch the race and panorama farms RARELY had a flat surface while at stillwater theres quite a lot flats
The Stillwater course is tough... I think the hills are higher and maybe longer. Panorma Farms did have multiple hills and quick changes from up to down so staying in one stride was difficult. The 2020 NCAA race:
but if you compare all the hills, the panorama farms is more hilly than stillwater .. watch the race and panorama farms RARELY had a flat surface while at stillwater theres quite a lot flats
This is a beautiful, hilly, real XC course. But I don't think this course is tougher than stillwater. Do you expect to see these times at Stillwater?
but if you compare all the hills, the panorama farms is more hilly than stillwater .. watch the race and panorama farms RARELY had a flat surface while at stillwater theres quite a lot flats
This is a beautiful, hilly, real XC course. But I don't think this course is tougher than stillwater. Do you expect to see these times at Stillwater?
stillwater has more flats than panorama , its also easier to run at still water because its wide
i might do a side by side comparison to really see the course
19:45 with Touhy keeping the pace honest through 5k. She has the tools to grind the uphill in the last k and have a gap when they turn for the downhill finish.
I just can't imagine that Valby will not try to set the pace. I may be wrong, but that has been her style. It may or may not work for her but.....
It just seems like a major screw up. I would be curious about times on the course beforehand. Did it ever run as a legitimate 6k course? The 3rd place runner ran 18:54. Says it all.