His 3000m WR is very much an indication of what he can do for 5000m. It shows that can maintain WR ability moving up from the 1500m to the 3000m, and he actually got a little better. He doesn’t need to be a 5/10 runner to get the record.
His performances and times have shown that he peaks at shorter distances - 2k/2miles. You and others here are assuming that he has the same ability at longer distances. I am arguing he doesn't. He's a md guy.
You are not arguing, you are just claiming. His performances so far have not shown what you say. Since he never has raced the 5000m for time, we dont know what he can do, we just have to wait.
Most commenters here don't get just how much Ingebrigtsen needs to improve to break the 5k wr. If he were to improve just 6-7 secs, to 12:41, that would be like him lopping 2secs off his best 1500 time. To improve 14 secs (to beat the wr) that would be like reducing his best 1500 time by 4-5 secs. So what are the chances of a 3:30-31 runner beating 3:26?
You’re a broken record.
Big difference: a broken can still give you good feelings.
You’re a broken record. You’re treating his 12:48 as if it will end up being his career PR. Just about every other LR believes his current 5000m PR is soft and he should have no problem running at least 12:40. You, on there other, believes he needs to get down to 3:22 to have a shot.
I'm not saying that. You haven't understood my post. I don't say 12:48 is his limit - I never have. But it is a long way from beating 12:35. He may get to the low 12:40's but that won't be easy. But to beat 12:35 would be as if he is a 3:30 1500 runner who beats 3:26. So what are the odds of that?
Bekele and Cheptegei both possessed slower PBs than 12:48 (12:52 and 12:57, respectively) before they attempted, and successfully broke the WR in the 5000. It doesn't matter if it's a big jump on paper, or by numbers, if their training or other performances indicate the fitness necessary. Before he ran 12:48 in 2021, Jakob was only a 13:02 guy (from 2019), but he -and everyone else - knew that he had far more tank because he closed in 52 that race.
Jakob was a 7:51 3000 runner until 2020, when he raced Kiplimo and they both destroyed the 7:30 barrier, running 7:26 and 7:27 respectively. Why was he confident in going after that kind of pace? Because he trusted his fitness and knew that his old PB didn't accurately represent his fitness.
Most runners intuitively understand without needing to discuss that there is often a disconnect between an athlete's recorded times and their actual ability. Does this explanation suffice for you?
Most commenters here don't get just how much Ingebrigtsen needs to improve to break the 5k wr. If he were to improve just 6-7 secs, to 12:41, that would be like him lopping 2secs off his best 1500 time. To improve 14 secs (to beat the wr) that would be like reducing his best 1500 time by 4-5 secs. So what are the chances of a 3:30-31 runner beating 3:26?
Let's try this for the 1000th time.
He doesn't need to improve 14 seconds because 12:48 is not the best he could have done.
Did El G become a long distance runner because he won the 5k? Does Ingebrigtsen become a Bekele, Cheptegei, Farah or Geb because he runs it?
5000m is a long distance event.
That's why Ingebrigtsen only wins slow tactical races at 5k. His best time is virtually a 100m off the wr. Nothing says he will likely improve that much.
Most commenters here don't get just how much Ingebrigtsen needs to improve to break the 5k wr. If he were to improve just 6-7 secs, to 12:41, that would be like him lopping 2secs off his best 1500 time. To improve 14 secs (to beat the wr) that would be like reducing his best 1500 time by 4-5 secs. So what are the chances of a 3:30-31 runner beating 3:26?
Let's try this for the 1000th time.
He doesn't need to improve 14 seconds because 12:48 is not the best he could have done.
Got it?
He has to improve 14 secs to run 12:34. Is simple arithmetic beyond you? The argument is not that he won't improve but that there isn't anything that shows he will improve by that much.
I'm not saying that. You haven't understood my post. I don't say 12:48 is his limit - I never have. But it is a long way from beating 12:35. He may get to the low 12:40's but that won't be easy. But to beat 12:35 would be as if he is a 3:30 1500 runner who beats 3:26. So what are the odds of that?
Bekele and Cheptegei both possessed slower PBs than 12:48 (12:52 and 12:57, respectively) before they attempted, and successfully broke the WR in the 5000. It doesn't matter if it's a big jump on paper, or by numbers, if their training or other performances indicate the fitness necessary. Before he ran 12:48 in 2021, Jakob was only a 13:02 guy (from 2019), but he -and everyone else - knew that he had far more tank because he closed in 52 that race.
Jakob was a 7:51 3000 runner until 2020, when he raced Kiplimo and they both destroyed the 7:30 barrier, running 7:26 and 7:27 respectively. Why was he confident in going after that kind of pace? Because he trusted his fitness and knew that his old PB didn't accurately represent his fitness.
Most runners intuitively understand without needing to discuss that there is often a disconnect between an athlete's recorded times and their actual ability. Does this explanation suffice for you?
That other runners, including himself, have sometimes made big improvements doesn't mean he has that in him to carve 13-14 secs off his pb to take the 5k world mark. His big improvement may well have been 13:02 to 12:48. That doesn't mean he can do the same kind of reduction again. He has his limits - like anyone. Jessica Hull took 11 seconds off her best 1500 time in a year. Does that mean she can take another 11 seconds off her pb?
That's why Ingebrigtsen only wins slow tactical races at 5k. His best time is virtually a 100m off the wr. Nothing says he will likely improve that much.
He doesn't need to improve 14 seconds because 12:48 is not the best he could have done.
Got it?
He has to improve 14 secs to run 12:34. Is simple arithmetic beyond you? The argument is not that he won't improve but that there isn't anything that shows he will improve by that much.
12:48 was not his true potential that day, let alone last season. But understanding of running is clearly beyond you.
That's why Ingebrigtsen only wins slow tactical races at 5k. His best time is virtually a 100m off the wr. Nothing says he will likely improve that much.
He has to improve 14 secs to run 12:34. Is simple arithmetic beyond you? The argument is not that he won't improve but that there isn't anything that shows he will improve by that much.
12:48 was not his true potential that day, let alone last season. But understanding of running is clearly beyond you.
It isn't being claimed that it is his limit. But improving 14 seconds may be well beyond him, as it would for any other runner trying to beat Cheptegei's wr.
12:48 was not his true potential that day, let alone last season. But understanding of running is clearly beyond you.
It isn't being claimed that it is his limit. But improving 14 seconds may be well beyond him, as it would for any other runner trying to beat Cheptegei's wr.
It may be well beyond his limit (despite all his achievements who gives different impressions). Or it might be well within his limit. I don't think he really likes the distance, but I'm pretty sure he has the capability to break the record.
That's why Ingebrigtsen only wins slow tactical races at 5k. His best time is virtually a 100m off the wr. Nothing says he will likely improve that much.
It isn't being claimed that it is his limit. But improving 14 seconds may be well beyond him, as it would for any other runner trying to beat Cheptegei's wr.
It may be well beyond his limit (despite all his achievements who gives different impressions). Or it might be well within his limit. I don't think he really likes the distance, but I'm pretty sure he has the capability to break the record.
I think he likes the 5000m just fine and that’s why he’s been doubling back to win at the distance at the WC and Olympics, but the 1500m is the marquee distance race and that’s were his focus is. That the 5000m is longer, doesn’t mean it’s any more punishing than the 1500m.
His performances and times have shown that he peaks at shorter distances - 2k/2miles. You and others here are assuming that he has the same ability at longer distances. I am arguing he doesn't. He's a md guy.
You are not arguing, you are just claiming. His performances so far have not shown what you say. Since he never has raced the 5000m for time, we dont know what he can do, we just have to wait.
You have no idea what he can do because he hasn't done it. What he has so far shown is that his 5k or longer performances are not in the same class as his best over shorter distances. That cannot be refuted. It is pure speculation that he will match them - and unless he does he can never be claimed to be a great "distance" runner.
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