spoiler alert wrote:
What is going to happen:
The House will clearly go Republican.
Wisconsin will go Republican.
Pennsylvania will go Democrat (If the election happened within 10 days of the debate I think Oz would have won but the pendulum is slightly slinging back. Time erodes memory.)
Nevada and Arizona will split, one Democrat and one Republican. Not sure which will go which way.
That leaves Georgia. Neither Warnock nor Walker will get 50% on election day, forcing a mandatory runoff. The Democrats will conduct a HUGE "Get out to Vote" campaign before the run-off, particularly in the Atlanta area. Consequently, the run-off will go to Warnock.
Net result: Zero change in the Senate.
Democrats and President Biden will lose some power without control of the House and the margin will be large enough that it will be very difficult to get enough Republicans to cross party lines. One Senator crossing party lines can block the Democrats in the Senate (Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema).
Sorry for ruining the suspense for everyone.
You are incorrect concerning the Senate. You are placing too much faith in Nate Silver/538 (who is lib biased and is he's typically wrong in the same direction).
It will be a 52 seat GOP at minimum. More likely, it will be 53. Again, if an incumbent is polling at less than 50% which is the case for both Kelly and the evil Warlock, the undecideds ALWAYS break for the challenger.
We have a possible major upset brewing in NH. If that occurs, the GOP will end up with 54 seats.
