Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Jedsdead wrote:

One stat I find interesting....there was a massive 'holy moly' when Valby ran a 18:58 on a flat course....which don't get me wrong, was incredibly impressive.

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

Jedsdead wrote:

One stat I find interesting....there was a massive 'holy moly' when Valby ran a 18:58 on a flat course....which don't get me wrong, was incredibly impressive.

So what did you think of her 18:29 yesterday?

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

Jedsdead wrote:

One stat I find interesting....there was a massive 'holy moly' when Valby ran a 18:58 on a flat course....which don't get me wrong, was incredibly impressive.

So what did you think of her 18:29 yesterday?

Blank231 wrote:

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

So what did you think of her 18:29 yesterday?

I posted earlier about the PR's in the race - everyone in the top 6 PR'd by 50-70 seconds (except Valby, who PR'd 18:58 just prior at Barrios. And that course is 30-40 meters short).

So... I think it was a great run but when you see those kind of PRs and times across the board something is off with the course.

TuohyFan wrote:

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

So what did you think of her 18:29 yesterday?

Incredibly short and the course director won’t embarrass themselves by stating so.

Jedsdead wrote:

One stat I find interesting....there was a massive 'holy moly' when Valby ran a 18:58 on a flat course....which don't get me wrong, was incredibly impressive. Tuohy just ran a 19:08 course record on Panorama...which is a hilly course. Elly Henes won the 2019 South East regional at Panorama in 19:48. Tuohy beat her winning time by 40sec.

I'm not saying Valby won't be able to compete with Tuohy, as she is looking very strong this year. But the hills will be where this race is won and lost...not the flats.

astro wrote:

If the top ten is running faster or nearly as fast as their track prs on a xc course, then conversion issues aside that is superfast and the course is in question.

Jedsdead wrote:

I have no idea what to make of that time. Because the timing seems strange, I will focus soley on the fact that she beat Mercy by 8 seconds. That is tremendous for Valby...so I give her all the credit for the win.

But she beat Mercy on a flat course. So I am not trying to downplay Valby's success, I am just saying that on a hilly course like Stillwater, I am going to give the edge to strong hill runners.

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

Jedsdead wrote:

I have no idea what to make of that time. Because the timing seems strange, I will focus soley on the fact that she beat Mercy by 8 seconds. That is tremendous for Valby...so I give her all the credit for the win.

But she beat Mercy on a flat course. So I am not trying to downplay Valby's success, I am just saying that on a hilly course like Stillwater, I am going to give the edge to strong hill runners.

And athletes that have experience on that tough course have an advantage.

FastTuohy wrote:

NCAA Cross Country wrote:

And athletes that have experience on that tough course have an advantage.

fwiw it looks like Tuohy, Bush, Chmiel had fastest last K at ACC meet, in that order

astro wrote:

If the top ten is running faster or nearly as fast as their track prs on a xc course, then conversion issues aside that is superfast and the course is in question.

Blank231 wrote:

astro wrote:

If the top ten is running faster or nearly as fast as their track prs on a xc course, then conversion issues aside that is superfast and the course is in question.

Yes. Olemomoi, chelangat, tyynisma, asekol all split a faster 5k than their total 5k times at piane. Van camp split a faster 5k than her winning 5k time at chili pepper as well

Jedsdead wrote:

One question I have, what are the requirements to get into the Championship race? For both teams and individuals? How do regionals play into it?