Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Just watched it. Nicely done. Nobody dislikes Tuohy, they merely dislike some of her fans who blast anyone who doesn't agree with them. I really dislike that people accused Valby of doping. Those posts are actually disgusting to me.

“…the OSU course may very well be more difficult in the final 1km than Nuttycombe.“

It is; at Stillwater, one runs the most difficult part of the course twice.

So todays races gave me all the info I need to make my top 10 Prediction for Nationals. A few changes from before today...Valby moved up 2 spots...Cook fell 2 spots. Jepkirui moved in, Van Camp fell out.

1) Tuohy

2) McCabe

3) Roe

4) Chmiel

5) Valby

6) Mercy

7) Jipkirui

8) Olemomoi

9) Cook

10) Markezich

Valby is impressive, but this will be a hilly course...Mercy let her get away in the middle of the race today, but finished at the same pace. I know Mercy can run a hilly course...have no idea about Valby. Tuohy, Roe, McCabe and Chmiel all have tremendous experience and results on hilly courses.

Cooks early results were good, but in my mind were nothing to get overly excited about. Roe and Jipkirui seem to have pulled away from her. In my opinion, low mileage training means runners will normally start the season in strong form, but not improve as much through the year. This seems to be holding true on her own team.

Of the top 6, in my mind Tuohy is still the clear favorite. If Valby can run hills, then it will be interesting, and I would never count Mercy out of a NCAA final. She can run hills, and has tremendous experience.

Reasonable, I am inclined to go

1) Tuohy
2) Mercy
3) Chmiel
4) Valby
5) McCabe
6) Roe
7) Jipkirui
8) Olemomoi
9) Cook
10) Markezich

If Valby runs smart she could finish higher or win. Have to be fast enough to tire Tuohy, but not so fast she has problems on the last hill.

My top five right now is Tuohy, Valby, McCabe, Roe, Chelangat. My guess is Mercy will run well at Nationals. Chimel could easily be top 5 again.

I'm hoping NCSt sits Tuohy for regionals.

agreed, I am somewhat worried that she will try to go out too hard (ala Orton) and pay for it.

I hope Valby does well...she is having a great year. Running away from Tuohy will not be an easy task though.

The hills are the x factor and Tuohy historically has run them really well.

My guess is we will see something like the 5000m final, Valby goes for a gap, Tuohy closes it and outkicks her. The key is NCst not overracing her. Sit her for regionals and get her to nationals with rested legs.

These seem to be pretty good picks but why Mercy over Valby?

I like Tuohy, McCabe, Valby, Chmiel, & Roe for my top 5.

I would be surprised if many of the top 10 race at regionals.

One question I have, what are the requirements to get into the Championship race? For both teams and individuals? How do regionals play into it?

just a guess based on hilly course

top 2 then KOLAS right? NC State has no worries with wins at ND and Nuttycombe

Well...when do we get to see your update?

Hertenstein ran a strong time today..could challenge the top 10. Was nice to see Venters, Covert and Dudek also place well

I think Valby has developed a kick this season. She threw down 68s 400s in the middle of the race today (between 2.12 &3k) before slowing down again (if you believe the splits)

I also hope the rest tuohy. It would be the smart call.

I don't really see ranking Valby or Mercy so low after SEC. Mercy was 20 seconds ahead of Olemomoi yesterday, the only runner within 30 seconds of Valby in the field. At Piane, Mercy was only a few seconds ahead of Olemomoi. She might have had an off day.

Is Valby low because of the hill factor, or do you not believe she is in 15 flat / sub 15 shape?

I would rate Valby higher, second after Tuohy athough I think McCabe is right there also. However there is a hill factor (the courses she has run on are flat and superfast and Stillwater is the opposite). I also don't think Lacctic is intended as a straight 5k conversion. (If so then Chelangat could run 15:03 despite a lifetime 15:18 pr, etc). People are overinterpreting it.

It's not that I am ranking Valby low...I am ranking McCabe, Roe, and Chmiel high. And yes, I have no idea of how Valby will run the hills. I can't seem to find a course that she has run extremely well which was hilly. But McCabe, Roe, and Chmiel certainly have. And McCabe looked like a beast yesterday finishing that race. I do agree with the comment on Mercy though....I believe the gap between her and Valby was because she let Valby get ahead around 3 km (maybe believing Valby could not maintain the pace), but then she held pace with Valby for the last two KM. So I will not be surprised to see Mercy do much better than I have listed.

Valby is the x-factor. She could easily push Tuohy if she can run the hills. We know Tuohy certainly can. So again, I wouldnt be surprised to see Valby place higher or win...but I'm going with the info I have. Her last two races have been great...but I don't pay much attention to the times....I do believe that is very misleading in XC. I'm placing Roe ahead of Chmiel simply because it's her home course...but Chmiel is running very well since returning.

I will say this about Valby based on watching this clip. Distances and lack of hills tossed to the side.

It’s impressive she defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds and her form looks stellar. She’s strong right now.

That makes sense.

For top 6 I am (tentatively) going

1) Valby / Tuohy toss-up. Need to think about this one a bit more, not sure right now.

2) Chelangat

3) Mccabe

4) Roe

5) Chmiel

Roe is ahead of Chmiel for me because of home course mostly. But, they are very close.