Half marathon course cutter Ashley Paulson, who served 6 month contamination suspension, wins coveted Badwater 135.

Ya don’t say

if it is her first race past 100, then how do you know what she is capable of. you don't have much data to extrapolate from. only marathon times and triathlon times and a few ultras of a shorter distance.

if the course is as you describe then the heartrate data is the most suspect aspect of it for me. 118-131 are the figures being thrown around in this thread for the final stretch (I can't access the data). It seems far too low for the sort of exertion you imply. That's not even in the aerobic zone (131-149).

what is the path or trail like going up the hilly parts? Or is it a road her van can drive along? if you can't get a vehicle up it, seems unlikely she cheated, assuming the gps hasn't been doctored.

Caveat, I am not some GPS data analysis expert.

Because 14 hour runners don't go out and run 17:26s, even when they're comfortably in the lead. And it syncs up with what she did on a course that was a little bit tougher when she went 18:26. Look at her 50s. Have you run 100s or Badwater? She's just not anywhere near the same class as Harvey and Lee and it's ridiculous to think she pulled away from them in a hurry at that stage of the race when they were both still strong. That's not sexism, that's just reality. It's like my Sara Hall analogy.

Here is pace vs heart rate the last 18 miles. The last 13 are the course record splits - 9 miles LP to PR and 4 miles PR to finish. What I see especially on the last climb are a heart rate that spikes when pace spikes, like trying to jog but then forced back into a power hike. I will note her HR spent all day in the 120s. The data I see do not correlate to what I had been hearing before I looked myself (super low heart rate).

Pic of HR/Pace data last 18 miles

thanks those links work for me, the others earlier in the thread didn't. i agree the heartrate looks fine, frequently into the 140s and occasionally low 150s, it's what you'd expect for a long race. much higher wouldn't be sustainable. no evidence she cheated so far, everything checks out!

So basically, what I'm seeing, after 24 pages of comments on this race, is no hard evidence that Ashley did anything wrong, despite people advancing multiple testable theories, all of which have been debunked. The heart rate issue was the most intriguing, but also turns out to be a nothing burger.

I don't like cheating in anything, but right now, this ain't it.

Its the curse and burden she will bear due to her checkered past. How long this type of questioning lasts, who knows.

The main piece of 'evidence' was the reporting that several people at the race reported suspicious behavior. The rest of data hunting people have been doing has been a fishing expedition. We don't really know what to look for or compare against until we hear those details. If those people never give any details, then we have to just assume they were trolling. Time is running out on them to speak up and provide details.

I wouldn't say anything has been debunked - we don't know what to debunk yet. But true we have no hard evidence (that I'm aware of) currently.

Agreed. A long history of cheating should not mean we do not accept her edited data.

I agree with this. I was initially skeptical when reading this thread and the Marathon Investigation post. The past incidents of course cutting and doping ban are unfortunate, even if unintentional. I dislike these things, as much as anyone.

However, no hard evidence has come out to prove cheating in this race. If people have that evidence or witnessed it, they should make a formal report and identify themselves. Until that happens, I'm going to assume Ashley Paulson ran a great race.

The van can go up the entire way and there's nobody out there. It's road the whole way. The steepness of the hills vary but some of it is just ridiculous.

The way her data extrapolates, she's better at shorter distances than longer distances (2:40 is considerably better than 17:26). It's a gauntlet of hell going up Towne Pass, through Panamint Valley and then up Father Crowley under that blazing sun and she's just not gonna come out of that fresh and pull away from a 14-hour runner who's having a good day, or the defending champion who won Big's Backyard who's running the same splits as last year and not slowing down, by more than a minute per mile between 83 and 108.

I know that people are scrutinizing the data and looking for abnormalities and wondering if maybe she just had a great day and ultimately it's likely that nothing will ever come out of it. But people who know Badwater and know what it means to run the 100s at the paces she did know that there's just no way. Has nothing to do with woman vs man. She's a great athlete, but I doubt she was really capable of much better than 30 and there's a huge difference between 24 and 30 there.

So you suggesting she didn't just cheat a few minutes worth, but SIX HOURS worth? I'm curious how you think she pulled that off.

I have no idea what she did/how she did it. But yeah, I think she ran about 6 hours above her potential. Maybe stretch it, she made huge fitness gains and executed a perfect run, she might be capable of 28ish? For me it's not a matter of "oh, she was too fast up this stretch" (although she was) ... she's just not that elite at the longer distances and 24 on that course is insane. It's like a 2:18 marathon on a hot, hilly course for a woman and there's not really any kind of explanation I'd ever believe for somebody who ran a 2:50 on a cool, fast course eight months prior.

What kind of suspicious behavior? Didn't hear of this. Just curious. Got a link

marathoninvestigation.com

Ashley Paulson Sets Course Record at Badwater - MarathonInvestigation

derek

Note: Ashley’s result has been thoroughly analyzed and no evidence was found to support cheating allegations. To support Marathon Investigation, you can make a contribution by clicking on the bottom of the page, or by going t...

Link:www.marathoninvestigation.com/2022/07/...

"I’ve received many emails and messages from people that were at the race or closely associated with people that were there. The observations of these people only add to the suspicions. At this point, I have to keep these observations off the record, but I am confident they would share their observations with race officials if given the opportunity.
These observations and the sources of the observations is compelling when added to the split data, and goes beyond making conclusions based on how fresh she looked throughout, and are much credible than theories about how she wore her watched, or that her pacer ran part of the race."

Note that its been 5 days since this post, and still not any further detail or anybody coming forward. If you're going to levy accusations like that, you can't do it in private. It sounds like from a public statement from this site today that the author is getting closer to writing another article with interviews from Ashley's crew and people referenced above who were at the race. The clock is ticking.

It's laughable. He throws up a wildly inaccurate post full of hearsay and errors he has to go back and fix (and he still hasn't fixed all of them), shortly after the race because "people are saying..." is important news.

But 5 days later he's suddenly developed too much integrity to post an incomplete follow-up article and so is forced, reluctantly, to wait to dot every "i" and cross every "t". Maybe it'll be this week, maybe it'll be never, who knows.

I wish Derek could have applied his new-found ethics to his original post.

I don't see anything wildly inaccurate in that post. I don't see anything inaccurate at all, although I'm guessing there will be some emotionally butthurt splitting of hairs of how certain things were said. The main thesis is true. Her previous behavior led to this burden she obviously still carries. When you set records, you run outlier splits. She ran outlier splits to even the outliers - of the top 10 finishers last several years, she had the single fastest second to last split and last split too. The average top 10 finisher the last several years ran these almost 50% slower than she did. Several people apparently reported suspicious behavior. Others have noticed details which raised an eye. This may all turn out to be a nothing burger, but its absolutely something to research further and flesh out.

How things have changed at Badwater since 1989.

Bart Yasso's race report from Badwater:

....
We reached Death Valley that afternoon. After a brief prerace meeting, we headed to Badwater, population zero, for the start. Besides yours truly, five runners stood at the line: 46-year-old female twins who carried résumés to pass out to spectators along the way; Jim Walker, who had dropped out of the race in 1988 after completing 96 miles; Adrian Crane, who carried a modified set of skis on his back, part of a plan to ski across the salt flats and shave 20 miles from the course; and Tom Possert, who’d finished first the year before but was disqualified for unlawful assistance on the course (his crew was photographed dragging him up Whitney). As to why race officials let him participate again, I can only surmise that they needed bodies.

runnersworld.com

The World According to Bart Yasso

The wit, wisdom, and globe-trotting adventures of a running icon.

Link:www.runnersworld.com/runners-stories/a...