Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

completely agree on Roe...I have her ahead of Cook and Valby. She is such a strong runner.

Having course experience is important...but these athletes have run so many different courses over the years that they adapt easily. And you have to know that coaches are training them in a manner that matches the OSU course.

After further analysis…

It’s no Van Cortland *wink*

Looking at the last 5k, is it fair to say that it is mostly flat and/or downhill? It looks like there is one small hill, but I can't really tell from the video.

How does the last K compare to the final K at Nuttycomb?

Thanks

OSU? There are significant hills at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5 K on the 6K course. The hill at 2.5 and 5.5 is long and gradual while the others are shorter and steeper. The last 200 m is downhill (while that of Nuttycombe is uphill). The low point on the course is just before 5K, similar to Nuttycombe.

Thanks. Which final k is know to be harder?

I would think most would say OSU. Steady climb for 200 or so meters I think. Chelangat pulled away to win with a final 1K of 3:17. Many back in the pack were 4:00 or slower.

That’s actually a really good way to “see” the effects of that final 1k.

3:17 final 1k when Chelangat won vs Tuohy’s 3:10 final 1k recently at Nuttycombe

here is the 2020 (early 2021) race - many struggled at end. You can see Chmiel and Tuohy (and rest of top 20) cresting the last hill before they cut to the finish line

Tuohy's final 2k was 6:09. Her last k was closer to 3:00.

If you watch this video, (start at 14:16), here’s a decent breakdown of what they will face:

4.3k: downhill

4.4k uphill

4.5k flat

4.8k uphill

5k downhill

5.25k uphill (one of the “concern” hills)

5.4k flat

5.5k uphill @ the turn to the homestretch (this is the one everyone talks about)

5.7k downhill to finish

I’ll go with that on the uphill! :) *high-five*

“3:17 final 1k when Chelangat won vs Tuohy’s 3:10 final 1k recently at Nuttycombe“

Irrelevant comparison; two very different courses.

That’s exactly why we were comparing them. There is a potential to say that OSU’s course is more difficult in that final 1km.

Tuohy
McCabe
Chelangat
Roe
Cook
Chmiel
Olemomoi
Valby
Markezich
Tyynismaa

No overwhelming favourite for the win at the moment. McCabe should state her intent at Big12s. Valby can earn the benefit of the doubt on Fri. The possibility of three steeplers--WV, ND, KY-- in the top 10 sounds ludicrous now, but may not after Oct 28.

no, that can't be as some insisted you had to have a fast 5000 time!!

Seriously, could be 4! Mitchell looks very good, Markezich certainly showed well last year. Maybe Bockroth has it too - will have to see more at SEC or regional vs other top runners. And McCabe.

“There is a potential to say that OSU’s course is more difficult in that final 1km”

Have you ever seen them, in person? I have…this year.

You were suggesting an equivalence in the courses to justify your time comparison between two runners on two different courses 18 months apart.

No, I have never seen either course in person.

I wasn’t suggesting an equivalency whatsoever.

I was; in fact, supporting a case that the OSU course may very well be more difficult in the final 1km than Nuttycombe.

Lol...this will drive some people crazy on here....

Zimmer is about 30 seconds faster for 6k.