Can KT Tuohy frontrun her way to a 1500 Championship? And then Double back for a 5k Title?

FastMcCabe wrote:

Definitely a possible scenario, though I’d put Chelangat in the Kemboi spot. Run this race five times and we’d likely see five different outcomes, one of which I’d hope would be a rested Chelangat--in her final collegiate race, in her best (and only) event of the meet, still feeling the sting of Tallahassee and the humbling of Stillwater--displaying her unyielding finest one last time.

Re the topic of this thread, here's a whimsical scenario with a possible grain of truth tucked inside.

Tuohy is ready to go--4:02/14:55 shape and a simple, three-point plan:
1) Secure the WC standard. For peace of mind rolling into USAs. Maybe hit 4:03.21 for flavour--and for Semi.
2) 2 mi float, 1.1 mi cut-down. Tuck in. Hug the rail. Nap. Wake up. Get moving. Squeeze ‘em out. Coast home with a 2 sec cush.
3) Bounce. Said goodbye to NCAA track at Millrose. Tonight makes it crystal. Bowerman = small potatoes.

Troll patrol wrote:

UpperState wrote:

I kept waiting for them to mention O’Sullivan as well! Shocked they completely disregarded her.

I totally disagree with their estimate on time too. It will NOT be over 4:10, it’s going to be FAST. SO many women SO close in times, ANY of the top-9 women in the country right now can win that 1500m.

It is NOT Tuohy’s slam-dunk event. It’s Tuohy’s race to prove herself.

The 5000m is Tuohy’s slam-dunk event. It’s hers to win or lose dependent on energy she has remaining.

As far as the 1500, I think it depends on several assumptions. Tuohy - will she turn out to be an even more advanced version of the 4:24 mile/4:23 DMR runner she was in indoor? Were the Wake Forest results just an outlier?

My reasoning here is that the plan for outdoor may have originally been contingent on getting the NCAA 5k qualifier at Sound Running. Then go run a FAST solo 1500 and qualifier at WF. They may have found out after the fact that Sound wouldn’t count for qualifying and then were forced to make WF a double, which would also serve the purpose of testing out the potential double at Nationals.

The other questions relate to the rest of the 1500 field. Are any or all of them still improving or have they peaked? The West region had to run very hard to survive and advance. The East region got to conserve energy, although it looks like it also created the issue with the stacked 1st heat semifinal at Nationals.

Blank231 wrote:

Troll patrol wrote:

As far as the 1500, I think it depends on several assumptions. Tuohy - will she turn out to be an even more advanced version of the 4:24 mile/4:23 DMR runner she was in indoor? Were the Wake Forest results just an outlier?

My reasoning here is that the plan for outdoor may have originally been contingent on getting the NCAA 5k qualifier at Sound Running. Then go run a FAST solo 1500 and qualifier at WF. They may have found out after the fact that Sound wouldn’t count for qualifying and then were forced to make WF a double, which would also serve the purpose of testing out the potential double at Nationals.

The other questions relate to the rest of the 1500 field. Are any or all of them still improving or have they peaked? The West region had to run very hard to survive and advance. The East region got to conserve energy, although it looks like it also created the issue with the stacked 1st heat semifinal at Nationals.

It's still pretty obvious (to me at least) they were attempting a very fast race at Wake Forest. Tuffy (who has demonstrated insider knowledge) even posted about it beforehand that she would try to go for the record. They had the pacing in place but it did not work out, may have been a 'bad' day. Not that 4:08 is bad. But she probably wasn't happy getting passed on the last lap. I don't think she let Piccirillo pass her purposely to conserve for the 5k.

We don't really know where Tuohy is with the 1500m because of her limited racing outdoors. The best I can go on is that she is faster than last year in other events, so it stands to reason she is faster in the 1500m too.

The same % improvement in her 5k versus 15:14 would put her 1500m at ~4:03. But things arent necessarily linear. If she is feeling good I would not rule out her being in 4:04 to 4:05 shape, realistically. That doesn't mean we see a 4:04 at nationals, but it will make her harder to beat in a fast race.

The stacked semi will give us a lot of information.

FastTuohy wrote:

Blank231 wrote:

It's still pretty obvious (to me at least) they were attempting a very fast race at Wake Forest. Tuffy (who has demonstrated insider knowledge) even posted about it beforehand that she would try to go for the record. They had the pacing in place but it did not work out, may have been a 'bad' day. Not that 4:08 is bad. But she probably wasn't happy getting passed on the last lap. I don't think she let Piccirillo pass her purposely to conserve for the 5k.

We don't really know where Tuohy is with the 1500m because of her limited racing outdoors. The best I can go on is that she is faster than last year in other events, so it stands to reason she is faster in the 1500m too.

The same % improvement in her 5k versus 15:14 would put her 1500m at ~4:03. But things arent necessarily linear. If she is feeling good I would not rule out her being in 4:04 to 4:05 shape, realistically. That doesn't mean we see a 4:04 at nationals, but it will make her harder to beat in a fast race.

The stacked semi will give us a lot of information.

I've said it before and I will say it again I find it very odd that she did not gradually slow down in that 1500 after the 1st 800 at 2:10 (maybe 2:09.5). It was an abrupt slowing of pace to about 2:15 800 pace which she held for the last 700.

Gator bait wrote:

FastMcCabe wrote:

Definitely a possible scenario, though I’d put Chelangat in the Kemboi spot. Run this race five times and we’d likely see five different outcomes, one of which I’d hope would be a rested Chelangat--in her final collegiate race, in her best (and only) event of the meet, still feeling the sting of Tallahassee and the humbling of Stillwater--displaying her unyielding finest one last time.

Re the topic of this thread, here's a whimsical scenario with a possible grain of truth tucked inside.

Tuohy is ready to go--4:02/14:55 shape and a simple, three-point plan:
1) Secure the WC standard. For peace of mind rolling into USAs. Maybe hit 4:03.21 for flavour--and for Semi.
2) 2 mi float, 1.1 mi cut-down. Tuck in. Hug the rail. Nap. Wake up. Get moving. Squeeze ‘em out. Coast home with a 2 sec cush.
3) Bounce. Said goodbye to NCAA track at Millrose. Tonight makes it crystal. Bowerman = small potatoes.

I like your thinking.

#3 - as a freshman Touhy's xc season was 1 race - nats. I could still see a brief 1-4 race xc season as a fun way to break up '24 base building. Acc reg nats is only a 3 wk racing window.

FastTuohy wrote:

Blank231 wrote:

It's still pretty obvious (to me at least) they were attempting a very fast race at Wake Forest. Tuffy (who has demonstrated insider knowledge) even posted about it beforehand that she would try to go for the record. They had the pacing in place but it did not work out, may have been a 'bad' day. Not that 4:08 is bad. But she probably wasn't happy getting passed on the last lap. I don't think she let Piccirillo pass her purposely to conserve for the 5k.

We don't really know where Tuohy is with the 1500m because of her limited racing outdoors. The best I can go on is that she is faster than last year in other events, so it stands to reason she is faster in the 1500m too.

The same % improvement in her 5k versus 15:14 would put her 1500m at ~4:03. But things arent necessarily linear. If she is feeling good I would not rule out her being in 4:04 to 4:05 shape, realistically. That doesn't mean we see a 4:04 at nationals, but it will make her harder to beat in a fast race.

The stacked semi will give us a lot of information.

I've said it before and I will say it again I find it very odd that she did not gradually slow down in that 1500 after the 1st 800 at 2:10 (maybe 2:09.5). It was an abrupt slowing of pace to about 2:15 800 pace which she held for the last 700.