OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

TuohyFan · 2022-11-13T15:07:16-05:00

We’ve been predicting for months now on the [b]“Way Too Early”[/b] thread. 50 pages and 987 posts of knowledge, observations and thought sharing. [b]It’s been great![/b] Now The Big Dance is next weekend. The women have achieved all of the fitness they can at this point and are tapering and resting to be as fast as they can be this upcoming Saturday. So, who’ll win? My personal predictions have NOTHING to do with overall finishing times on any given course during this 2022 XC season. They’re based on who’s raced whom, and who won in head-to-head battles, and how that compares to other women in the NCAA. Not every woman has faced ALL of the competition during 2022. However, some women have raced enough of the various top guns in one race, and then in another race have faced some of the other top guns that by using them as a common reference competitor, predictions can be made. Through those various competitions and competitors, I came up with the following extremely solid predictions of the top-10 women:[b]1 Tuohy SO NC State [/b](defeated Chelangat by 12 seconds in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Undefeated during 2022 season on some of the more difficult courses in the NCAA (ie: Nuttycombe) [b] 2 Valby SO Florida[/b] (defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds @ SEC) Undefeated during 2022 season, ran possibly the fastest ever recorded 6k course in the history of the NCAA @ SEC in 18:25. Flat-fast courses during 2022 season[i] NOTE: 3, 4 & 5 could flip-flop in various ways:[/i] [b] 3 Chmiel JR NC State[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy @ ACC)- has been within 5 seconds of Tuohy @ Nuttycombe). Placed ahead of Chelangat due to being closer to Tuohy in a longer and more challenging course. [b] 4 Chelangat SR Alabama[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Chelangat is ahead of McCabe based on the last time they were head-to-head was @ 2021 NCAA’s and Chelangat defeated her Ran possibly the 2nd fasted ever recorded 6k course in NCAA history at SEC in 18:33 [b] 5 McCabe JR West Virginia[/b] (2 seconds ahead of Roe @ Big 12) Undefeated during 2022 season [b] 6 Roe SR Oklahoma State[/b] (handily showed her teammates who’s leading her team @ Big 12 by being far ahead of them when sprinting w/ McCabe) [b] 7 Jepkirui FR Oklahoma State[/b] (6 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12) [b] 8 Kemboi SR Utah Valley[/b] (defeated Stearns by 8 seconds @ Mountain Region) [b] 9 Stearns SO NAU[/b] (8 seconds behind Chmiel @ Nutty, 9 seconds behind Roe @ Cowboy) [b] 10 Cook FR Oklahoma State[/b] (11 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)Regardless of how this all turns out. The fact that OSU has 3 women very strongly possibly finishing in the top-10 is incredible and very well may have a chance at winning the team title. I’m excited to watch this race!Thoughts?

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3 years ago 11/18/2022 8:29am EST

re: Slo-Jo

Slo-Jo wrote:
I have been reading the Touhy/Valby posts on here for weeks now. I just don't see it. I know Valby is fast, but it reminds me of the Jenna Hutchins effect: run really fast on flat fast courses and be called the fastest ever without ever running a challenging course. That is not what cross country is about, and thankfully, not what will win tomorrow.
If this were track season, I would say that Touhy and Valby are going to be close. I am not negating the fact that she can run fast. Whoever wins tomorrow will be a true cross country runner, and I do not think it will be Valby. If I am wrong I will eat my words. I think Touhy is going to win. Any speculation that NC State is not ready for hills is BS. At ACC's Touhy ran up the hills like a machine, and so did Chmiel. They are prepared.
I think Touhy's biggest competition for the individual title is McCabe, and that could be a battle. Despite being tough and fast and undefeated, McCabe gets very little mention. She is the same type of cross country runner as Touhy - gritty and able to handle the hills and cold - and she is just as fast on the track as Touhy. She is also a savvy racer. So my picks for top finishers are:
1. Touhy
2. McCabe
3. Roe
4. Chmiel
5. Valby
6. Mercy
Track will be a different story.

Great breakdown and reasoning!

3 years ago 11/18/2022 8:34am EST

re: aloha2

aloha2 wrote:
Speaking of injuries, no Marlee Starliper for NC State for the third straight year, I cant imagine the amount of frustration she deals with while fighting all her injuries, 3 months is hard, 3 years is crazy.
Instagram:www.instagram.com/p/ClE1jkKPZfw/?igshi...

I’m hoping they get things figured out for her. Starliper is certainly one of the athletes that a large fan base was looking forward to following her collegiate career. There hasn’t been much to follow as of yet due to her injuries, but when she did come out she was incredible.

Hopefully next season!

3 years ago 11/18/2022 9:22am EST

re: Val Bee Pres

Val Bee Pres wrote:
You are going to be disappointed.

How so?

3 years ago 11/18/2022 11:53am EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
AWESOME! Friday afternoon we can expect interviews from Coach Henes, as well as individually with Tuohy, Valby and Chelangat!
Below you will also find the schedule and the participants for Friday's news conference.
Schedule
2:00-2:15 female student athletes Q&A
2:15-2:30 male student athletes Q&A
2:30-3:00 coaches Q&A
Participants
Male Athletes
Charles Hicks, Stanford
Nico Young, Northern Arizona
Alex Maier, Oklahoma State
Female Athletes
Katelyn Tuohy, NC State
Parker Valby, Florida
Mercy Chelangat, Alabama
Coaches
Laurie Henes, NC State
Mike Smith, NAU
Dave Smith, Oklahoma State
Ricardo Santos, Stanford
Recordings of these interviews is supposed to be available at:
Link:nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com...
This information provided by:
Link:okstate.com/news/2022/11/16/cowboy-cro...
I think I’m more excited about this than anything else in the media at the moment.

Is this being shown live....or just getting replay after?

3 years ago 11/18/2022 11:56am EST

re: Jedsdead

3 years ago 11/18/2022 12:31pm EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
I think I’m more excited about this than anything else in the media at the moment.
Is this being shown live....or just getting replay after?

I’m actually not sure, I just posted what I saw. I’m HOPING its live! :)

3 years ago 11/18/2022 12:33pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
Is this being shown live....or just getting replay after?
I’m actually not sure, I just posted what I saw. I’m HOPING its live! :)

Correction, it’s live in person, as well as on ZOOM!

okstate-edu.zoom.us

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3 years ago 11/18/2022 2:50pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
I’m actually not sure, I just posted what I saw. I’m HOPING its live! :)
Correction, it’s live in person, as well as on ZOOM!
Link:okstate-edu.zoom.us/j/97248710340

Press conference scheduled to being in 10 minutes! (Link above)

3 years ago 11/18/2022 3:04pm EST

re: TuohyFan

lol...PV...'for every uphill there is a downhill, so it all balances out'....

this will be interesting

3 years ago 11/18/2022 3:11pm EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
lol...PV...'for every uphill there is a downhill, so it all balances out'....
this will be interesting

she seemed to say she has upped her mileage which seems at odds with what she said in June

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:01pm EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
lol...PV...'for every uphill there is a downhill, so it all balances out'....
this will be interesting

That literally made me laugh as well, thinking: ”Oh, you have NO idea…….”

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:02pm EST

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
lol...PV...'for every uphill there is a downhill, so it all balances out'....
this will be interesting
she seemed to say she has upped her mileage which seems at odds with what she said in June

She definitely eluded to that, but no one really asked her to elaborate.

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:04pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Correction, it’s live in person, as well as on ZOOM!
Link:okstate-edu.zoom.us/j/97248710340
Press conference scheduled to being in 10 minutes! (Link above)

Once they switched to “zoom” for questions, I was scrambling trying to figure out how to be able to do so (I wasn’t expecting them to open it up to zoom participants to be able to ask questions), but I couldn’t figure out how to get in the que.

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:08pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Press conference scheduled to being in 10 minutes! (Link above)
Once they switched to “zoom” for questions, I was scrambling trying to figure out how to be able to do so (I wasn’t expecting them to open it up to zoom participants to be able to ask questions), but I couldn’t figure out how to get in the que.

Although I've used Zoom several times, at first I didn't know how to "raise the hand" in order to get in the que. I eventually found it...you go to "Reactions", and then there is a "Raise Hand" icon.

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:16pm EST

re: NC State fan

NC State fan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Once they switched to “zoom” for questions, I was scrambling trying to figure out how to be able to do so (I wasn’t expecting them to open it up to zoom participants to be able to ask questions), but I couldn’t figure out how to get in the que.
Although I've used Zoom several times, at first I didn't know how to "raise the hand" in order to get in the que. I eventually found it...you go to "Reactions", and then there is a "Raise Hand" icon.

Darn it! Thanks for letting me know!

3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:28pm EST

re: TuohyFan

All kinds of interviews, etc., popping up from on-site interviews, etc. @ Stillwater on Letsrundotcom’s YouTube page!

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3 years ago 11/18/2022 4:33pm EST

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
lol...PV...'for every uphill there is a downhill, so it all balances out'....
this will be interesting
she seemed to say she has upped her mileage which seems at odds with what she said in June

Solisnky said in an interview today she’s 20-25 mph running mileage with up to 2 hours per day cross training.