What was the probability of a high school runner recently getting involved in a doping scandal? Doping happens on all levels, although less likely at the high school or college levels. However you have things North Carolina A&T and Duane Ross. Similar, UF's coach (who must not be named) has his own colorful history.
So as to probability, I start with the coach. I would say this one is in the"likely" category. You don't want to believe it, and the athlete would not come up with it on their own, but the coach comes from the same type of background as Ross where PEds were just the norm and no one expected to get caught even at the pro level. (Houlihan was whistle-blowed).
Anyway, forget anything else. Answer me one question: Can you point to another college distance runner that looks like Valby. Muscular and vascular (visible veins) but with no body fat. We see that in the pro ranks based on the doping methods they use like nandrolone. But I do not recall ever seeing that in the college ranks. Unless said athlete is doing what the pros do.