My question was about ALL the runners who are potential title contenders for team and individual (cook, roe, chelangat, tuohy, etc)
It's about strategy to win the Team title. Henes and other title contender team coaches may tell the teams to pack run to a certain point in the race. This is pretty common in XC. Valby will be running solo to get the individ title only.
My question is - what will be the strategy for these teams? Will they tell their low low sticks to pack run or chase the lead?
A couple of points that I am interested in peoples thoughts...The Team Race vs the Individual title?? What is the general consensus of some of you more knowledgeable folks...would Henes ever tell Tuohy to NOT chase the lead in order to ensure the Team wins??
Personally, I think any of the potential Individual winners would be focused on the win and not worried about holding back. I believe its your 10-30th potential placements that you tell to not try to chase the front pack...run your own race to maximize the team finish.
As for the race, I will say the same thing about Valby as I have for Cook...she ran a fast race and is certainly a strong contender for the title, but I put very little in faith in any one race. Especially if it is on a different style course and not against any legitimate contender. Valby will be very strong and has much more experience than Cook...but what will Valby do when she runs out fast, but Mercy, McCabe, Roe, Tuohy are all there beside her?? Does she try to push the pace too much?? I would think this is likely more of an issue for Cook as she has never been against that type of talent.
Personally, I expect the front pack will end up being 7 or 8 strong, maybe Valby or Cook or Mercy try to take off - but its very doubtful they pull away from the pack that much.
It will be fun to make predictions on this race....very interesting how quickly people are willing to not even consider some of the strongest finishers from last year just because they haven't put out a peak performance yet...Denner (9th), Markezich (11), Heckel (18), larkin (21), Asekol (29th), Van Camp (37) - both Asekol and van camp were similar times to Valby last year.
I would say that there are 10 runners with a legitimate shot to win, and likely the most talented top 15 - 20 runners in the final field that the NCAA's will have in a long time.
I will be shocked if one of Tuohy, Valby, Chelangat, Roe (possibly McCabe - unknown this season) or Cook does not win. I don't see someone 20 or more seconds back of Tuohy at Nuttycombe winning - and that is most of the rest. On Cook - the race she won was early season, and by late season standard probably nowhere near as fast as it will take to win. So how much faster is she? Likely some. If Denner comes from nowhere again then we need to call out Astro (lol). I think Henes will have her runners make sure they have something in the tank for the final hill. Valby I don't think has run that course while everyone pretty much else has either in early 2021 or this season so they have a better idea what they need. The hills at 3500 and 4500 will break up whatever the pack is at that point, and then the strongest up the last hill wins, like Chelangat did. If Valby can go out ot 9:40 and hang on, then more power to her. That seems pretty fast.
Sure 10 runners if u think 0.5% is a real chance. Tuohy has an 60% chance, valby 20%, chmiel 5, mercy , cook , McCabe, roe 3 each, and then the other 6 best split 3%
And no, no coach is saying that because having an athlete win the individual is just as important for the prestige of the program
And let's face it NC State and maybe Alabama are the only contending teams with a runner that could win! And neither of those schools the coach is going to tell the top runner not to go for the win!
Sure 10 runners if u think 0.5% is a real chance. Tuohy has an 60% chance, valby 20%, chmiel 5, mercy , cook , McCabe, roe 3 each, and then the other 6 best split 3%
And no, no coach is saying that because having an athlete win the individual is just as important for the prestige of the program
And let's face it NC State and maybe Alabama are the only contending teams with a runner that could win! And neither of those schools the coach is going to tell the top runner not to go for the win!
I agree on some your numbers...Tuohy is still my top, but I would not list Valby or Cook in my top 5...in my mind, far too much emphasis being placed on one result for each. I would have Mercy, Roe, McCabe, and Chmiel ahead of Valby and Cook. Mercy and McCabe are a little unknown yet this year though.
Wood seems to have updated his assessments and still has NC State winning with < 50 points (NC State at 1/5/11/13/15 and Shaw at 21 for that matter). I don't buy it at all. Maybe the update is incomplete (Jepkuir is 83) - I don't know.
Wood seems to have updated his assessments and still has NC State winning with < 50 points (NC State at 1/5/11/13/15 and Shaw at 21 for that matter). I don't buy it at all. Maybe the update is incomplete (Jepkuir is 83) - I don't know.
seriously? That seems pretty optomistic. Tuohy and Chmiel could definately be top 5...but Starliper/bush/ and Seymore to be top 15?? I can see Starliper coming in strong...but I would expect Bush and Seymour between 20-30.
I think Parker Valby will make it fast. The question is how many go with her. Could she pull a semi Kiptoo (and Tuohy/Chelangat a Mantz/Wildschutt)? The team race will be contested between the NM pack and NC State 3-5 and I think NC State would be smart to run it that way. I can see Valby going out in 9:45 for 1st 3K which would hurt a lot of people in this field late in the race
Totally agree. Comparing the piane and barrios times (I know, I know, one is 5k and 1 is 6k but they are both supposed to be flat so a better comparison than ND), Tuohy / Chelangat and Valby went out at similar paces. Valby was slightly faster through 2k and then slowed up a little, whereas Tuohy / Chelangat started a little slower and dropped it down. Splits for Piane were 12:49/ 4000m versus 13:08/4100m for Valby at Barrios, both a 3:12/km pace by that point. That's 9:36 3k pace.
But, Valby turned on the jets and kicked 3:50 for the next 1300m at 2:57/km pace from 4100 to 5400 which is the fastest kick we have seen this season so far. After that she slowed way, way down to 3:22/k or 3:39k for the final 600m (depending on whether you think the course is short). Its completely flat at that point so who knows why. Tuohy kicked her last k at piane in 3:00/km. Could she have dropped it down through 6k?
Was barrios just faster footing? I think it *is* faster footing, but the barrios race was also in 80-85 degree heat. I don't really know who has the best kick this season, and I don't think we have seen any other runners kick that fast yet (please correct me if wrong).
More will be known after conference races but right now I think the individual title is up in the air. Strongest contenders I see are Tuohy, Valby, Roe, Chelangat, Cook (maybe), Mccabe (maybe) Curious to see if Chelangat / McCabe / Cook / Roe look stronger in the next race and show more speed.
I like these rankings....my changes would be to flip Roe and Cook, and I do believe Starliper (if healthy) may get top 20.
I have no issue with Chmiel ahead of Valby. If you believe Tuohy is the likely favorite...well at Nutty (just like she has ever since HS) Chmiel was the only runner who was able to go with KT over the last 1500...and that was her first race this year. Certainly a top 5 threat, and would not be surprised at top 3.
We will get a better idea in a week where everyone sits...really interested to see the SEC results....Valby, Mercy and the bama girls, Van Camp...not sure who else is in that field.....
We will get a better idea in a week where everyone sits...really interested to see the SEC results....Valby, Mercy and the bama girls, Van Camp...not sure who else is in that field.....
We will get a better idea in a week where everyone sits...really interested to see the SEC results....Valby, Mercy and the bama girls, Van Camp...not sure who else is in that field.....
Absolutely. Tyynisma is not back to her potential yet, she is one to watch.
I have no issue with Chmiel ahead of Valby. If you believe Tuohy is the likely favorite...well at Nutty (just like she has ever since HS) Chmiel was the only runner who was able to go with KT over the last 1500...and that was her first race this year. Certainly a top 5 threat, and would not be surprised at top 3.
Good point. Chmiel is also seems stronger at XC even than track.
Keep this post. I know that you won't bring it up but I will.
what? you will bring up that I believe you think this will be the finish order? You prediction is quite clear, by all means after that race bring it up.
I know this is off topic, but I am also quite interested to see how Dudek does next weekend. She had a very good race at Nutty and looks like she is getting back into form. If so, she could certainly be a top 20 threat at Nationals.
Funny how quickly certain posters jumped off of her band-wagon and right on another.