After every regional, Jonathan Gault will be running Bo Waggoner's program to see who is in and out. He'll post the results on the live blog on the front page: https://www.letsrun.com/events...
Exactly. Jerry and Oregon are not working with a short term focus to barely make it to nationals this year, they're working long term to be on the podium in another year or two. And they probably will succeed.
Turns out Jerry knows far more about training champions than anyone who posts on these boards, especially the trolls who think he should be fired...
they're also trying to win track team championships, unlike most of the good cross schools
I'd guess Birnbaum and Steury aren't running because they're either hurt or chose themselves to hold on to the eligibillity. Doubt Jerry is holding them back while racing Burns (when he wasn't even a scorer at pac12s) and other freshmen who were racing track deep into the summer
this just isn't a group of 10k guys. their top runner, who has been insanely impressive this fall after finishing in the 40s at pac12s last year, is a 1:47, 800 pac12 champ
Probably give it another chip read. Their pack is still mostly in contact with scorers
I thought OR St W had some points (?). Bunnage dropped at 2.5 miles
Was Bunnage nursing an injury or just holding back in the West Regional? She won Pac 12s @ 5:08 pace and dropped to 5:19 yesterday, whereas Mitchell and Fetherstonhaugh stayed in the 5:11--5:08 range both races.
I thought OR St W had some points (?). Bunnage dropped at 2.5 miles
Was Bunnage nursing an injury or just holding back in the West Regional? She won Pac 12s @ 5:08 pace and dropped to 5:19 yesterday, whereas Mitchell and Fetherstonhaugh stayed in the 5:11--5:08 range both races.
She was running with leaders but fell back hard before 2.5 mile split
Was Bunnage nursing an injury or just holding back in the West Regional? She won Pac 12s @ 5:08 pace and dropped to 5:19 yesterday, whereas Mitchell and Fetherstonhaugh stayed in the 5:11--5:08 range both races.
She was running with leaders but fell back hard before 2.5 mile split
I'm inclined to think she didn't intend to slip off the pace, but I didn't watch the race.
I have the ORSt women in the 11--15 range in my Nats projections. Not sure where to place Bunnage.
That seems reasonable to me. Based on conference I was thinking Bunnage top 10 but now I wonder. I am more focused on team scoring and I have pencilled in ~15. But yesterday's result would indicate much further back that that. I'm assuming just a tough day.
I'm inclined to think she didn't intend to slip off the pace, but I didn't watch the race.
I have the ORSt women in the 11--15 range in my Nats projections. Not sure where to place Bunnage.
That seems reasonable to me. Based on conference I was thinking Bunnage top 10 but now I wonder. I am more focused on team scoring and I have pencilled in ~15. But yesterday's result would indicate much further back that that. I'm assuming just a tough day.
I assume she had a bad day. Hopefully she did not peak too early. I think she has a solid shot at top 15 and maybe even top 10 on a good day. On paper she is still one of the fastest women in the NCAA over 3k/5k.
What is Jerry doing at Oregon? This is year two and they were beaten by 5 Pacific Northwest teams at Regionals! They have tremendous recruits but most of them weren't running. The men are way, way underperforming. I thought Jerry's stuff took a year. Well, he's into his fourth season and the men got one person in tenth and then there was a huge dropoff after that to maybe 34th for #2. Birnbaum was much better than Burns in early xc results, yet it was Burns who competed and Birnbaum--the guy with more pro potential anyway--redshirted. Shalane is showing with her results with the women's team that you can have success with Oregon xc without the top recruits in the country if you make an effort.
That seems reasonable to me. Based on conference I was thinking Bunnage top 10 but now I wonder. I am more focused on team scoring and I have pencilled in ~15. But yesterday's result would indicate much further back that that. I'm assuming just a tough day.
I assume she had a bad day. Hopefully she did not peak too early. I think she has a solid shot at top 15 and maybe even top 10 on a good day. On paper she is still one of the fastest women in the NCAA over 3k/5k.
My concern is she seems to have overcooked herself twice this season, yesterday and at Nuttycombe, and thet there are plenty of savvy racers--Taylor Roe, Maia Ramsden and the like--to make her pay if it happens again in VA.
As for Dave Smith, his stuff is working if that is defined by recruitment of African-born athletes, which has put him in position to potentially dominate nationals. At regionals, OSU scored 18 points and its fifth guy was Alex Meier, one of the NCAA's best. OSU had four athletes born in Kenya (Kipngetich, first after 14th at conference, and Musau), Ethiopia (Adisu Guadia, an Israeli citizen), or Morocco (Messaoudi) ahead of Meier, who was 8th. Victor Shi+sama, a Kenyan listed as 25 years old, did not even run at regionals. Messaoudi is 22 and trained with the world champion steepler in Morocco before coming to the U.S. Kipngetich took third at the 2023 Kenyan xc nationals earlier this year, while Musau, who is listed as 17 years old absurdly, was 2nd at the African U18 champs in the 1500 in 3:50 and ran 13:50 in Nairobi in 2023. Guadia has a 28:23 10000m pr from 2023. Dave Smith found these guys. Messaoudi, who had been a 3:38 guy, I believe, wasn't even looking into American colleges when Smith found him and recruited him. He said that most coaches overlook milers like him because they don't realize they have xc potential.
How do you beat that if you're NAU? Mike Smith will have earned his coach of the year award this year if they win. The performance of Kang Nyoak, fifth in 29:10 at regionals, raises their ceiling a lot but surely not enough. If Bosley is healthy--and he's been a bit down the past several races--you can see Nico and Bosley as contenders for the title, and then they'll need three guys to overachieve. Can any of those other guys get top ten? Not Hasty. Maybe Prosser. Quax may not even race. Can the other two get top fifteen? I think that they have a very good chance of getting five guys in the top eighteen. That would give them the kind of score that would win almost every year, e.g. 2-3-10-14-18=47, just not this one. OSU may well score in the mid 30s (e.g. 4-5-6-9-11=35). We've said that NAU would lose before but now the imagination strains at constructing a scenario in which it doesn't happen.
Exactly. Jerry and Oregon are not working with a short term focus to barely make it to nationals this year, they're working long term to be on the podium in another year or two. And they probably will succeed.
Turns out Jerry knows far more about training champions than anyone who posts on these boards, especially the trolls who think he should be fired...
I'm not trolling but that's a bunch of bulls**t. Qualifying and dominating at NCAA XC in November 2023 is not going to affect their Olympic development in 2024. What a crock.
All credit to Santos at Stanford because they are really coming around at the right time. Robinson has been dominant this year. Sprout is back. DiDonato is living up to the potential he showed last year. The Youngs ran their first 10k's very well, 26th and 42nd--just not well enough yet to contribute to a championship team. They have a good shot at top five.
Add in Las Heras to my NAU prediction, giving them enough depth with Nyoak and Prosser, along with the top five guys Young and Bosley, to get 3-4 guys in the top 12.
This race is going to be between Australian Ky Robinson, Kenyan Denis, and Eritrean Samuels. For NAU to win the title, Australian Kang Nyoak needs to step up at the nationals. It's obvious to me that international students will play a bigger role for OSU and NAU to win.
Good question, no one seems to know or want to talk bout it. It's not clear to me if Miltenberg is hands on coaching both men and women or just the men. Perhaps Riden is hands on with the women??
Anyone know what is up with the UNC women? Did not run Harrington, Neglia, or Brown who were in their top 7 at ACCs and have a history of success
Doesn't make any sense to me. The bold runners are those that ran the Southeast Regional. No way that all three got injured/sick in the two weeks before regionals.
On the bright side for UNC, they are only losing one senior and they added a great signee for next season, Logan St. John Kletter out of Pittsburgh.
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